Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2016

Opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

Australian opinion polling

Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives (lower house) and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

Every federal election after 1961 has been won by the grouping that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales. Unusually, in the upcoming election nearly half of all marginal government seats are in NSW; of these, nearly half are in Western Sydney and half are in rural and regional areas. No more than a few government seats in each other state are marginal.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater).^[1]

National polling

Voting intention

More information Date, Firm ...



Date	Firm	Primary vote				2PP vote		Sample size	Margin of error	Method
		L/NP	ALP	GRN	OTH	L/NP	ALP
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016	Newspoll^[2]	42%	35%	10%	13%	50.5%	49.5%	4,135	?	Landline
30 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[3]	42.8%	34.6%	10.7%	12%	51%	49%	2,084	?	Telephone (random)
27–30 Jun 2016	Essential^[4]	42.5%	34.5%	11.5%	12%	50.5%	49.5%	1,212	±3	Online (members)
28–29 Jun 2016	Galaxy^[5]	43%	36%	10%	11%	51%	49%	1,768	?	Landline
26–29 Jun 2016	Ipsos^[6]	40%	33%	13%	14%	50%	50%	1,377	?	Telephone (random)
23–26 Jun 2016	Essential^[7]	39%	37%	10%	14%	49%	51%	1,773	±3	Online (members)
23–26 Jun 2016	Newspoll^[8]	43%	36%	9%	12%	51%	49%	1,713	±3	Landline
23 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[9]	42.3%	33.7%	10.5%	13.3%	51%	49%	2,349	?	Telephone (random)
20–22 Jun 2016	Galaxy^[10]^[11]	42%	35%	11%	12%	50%	50%	?	?	Landline
16–19 Jun 2016	Essential^[12]	40%	37%	10%	13%	49%	51%	1,013	±3	Online (members)
16–19 Jun 2016	Newspoll^[13]	41%	36%	10%	13%	50%	50%	1,805	±3	Landline
16 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[14]	43.5%	33.6%	9.1%	13.7%	51%	49%	2,576	?	Telephone (random)
14–16 Jun 2016	Ipsos^[15]	39%	33%	14%	14%	49%	51%	1,437	?	Telephone (random)
9–12 Jun 2016	Essential^[16]	41%	37%	10%	12%	49%	51%	1,784	±3	Online (members)
9 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[17]	42.7%	33.2%	9.9%	14.3%	50%	50%	2,175	?	Telephone (random)
2–5 Jun 2016	Essential^[18]	41%	36%	10%	13%	50%	50%	1,772	±3	Online (members)
2–5 Jun 2016	Newspoll^[19]	40%	35%	10%	15%	50%	50%	1,867	±3	Landline
2 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[20]	41.5%	34.9%	10.1%	13.5%	50%	50%	2,414	?	Telephone (random)
31 May – 2 Jun 2016	Ipsos^[21]	42%	36%	13%	9%	49%	51%	1,359	±2.7	Telephone (random)
26–29 May 2016	Essential^[22]	41%	35%	9%	15%	51%	49%	1,767	±3	Online (members)
21–22, 28–29 May 2016	Morgan^[23]	37.5%	32.5%	13%	17%	49%	51%	3,099	±1	In person and SMS
26 May 2016	ReachTEL^[24]	41.1%	36.5%	9.6%	12.8%	48%	52%	2,700	?	Telephone (random)
19–22 May 2016	Essential^[25]	41%	37%	9%	13%	49%	51%	1,794	±3	Online (members)
19–22 May 2016	Newspoll^[26]	41%	36%	11%	12%	49%	51%	?	±3	Landline
19 May 2016	ReachTEL^[27]	42.6%	36.6%	9.9%	10.9%	50%	50%	2,407	?	Telephone (random)
17–19 May 2016	Ipsos^[28]	43%	34%	14%	9%	51%	49%	1,497	±2.5	Telephone (random)
14–15 May 2016	Morgan^[29]	36.5%	33%	15.5%	15%	47.5%	52.5%	2,318	±1	In person and SMS
12–15 May 2016	Essential^[30]	42%	38%	9%	11%	49%	51%	1,784	±3	Online (members)
6–8 May 2016	Lonergan^[31]	42%	35%	12%	10%	50%	50%	1,841	?	Landline and mobile
5–8 May 2016	Essential^[32]	42%	38%	10%	10%	49%	51%	1,754	±3	Online (members)
9 May 2016	2016 Federal Election campaign begins
5–8 May 2016	Newspoll^[33]	41%	37%	11%	11%	49%	51%	?	±3	Landline
5–7 May 2016	Ipsos^[33]	44%	33%	14%	9%	51%	49%	1,410	±2.6	Telephone (random)
4–6 May 2016	Galaxy^[34]	42%	36%	11%	11%	50%	50%	1,739	±2.5	?
5 May 2016	ReachTEL^[35]	43.2%	35.1%	9.5%	12.2%	50%	50%	2,450	?	Telephone (random)
27 Apr – 1 May 2016	Essential^[36]	40%	38%	10%	12%	48%	52%	1,753	±3	Online (members)
23–24, 30 Apr – 1 May 2016	Morgan^[37]	40%	32.5%	13.5%	14%	49%	51%	2,951	±1	In person and SMS
20–24 Apr 2016	Essential^[38]	40%	39%	10%	11%	48%	52%	1,740	±3	Online (members)
14–17 Apr 2016	Newspoll^[39]	41%	36%	11%	12%	49%	51%	?	±3	Landline
13–17 Apr 2016	Essential^[40]	42%	36%	11%	11%	50%	50%	1,753	±3	Online (members)
9–10, 16–17 Apr 2016	Morgan^[41]	40.5%	32%	14%	13.5%	50%	50%	3,083	±1	In person and SMS
14–16 Apr 2016	Ipsos^[42]	42%	33%	14%	11%	50%	50%	1,402	±2.6	Telephone (random)
14 Apr 2016	ReachTEL^[43]	43.5%	35.8%	9.8%	10.9%	50%	50%	2,415	?	Telephone (random)
6–10 Apr 2016	Essential^[44]	42%	35%	11%	12%	50%	50%	1,792	±3	Online (members)
31 Mar – 3 Apr 2016	Newspoll^[45]	41%	36%	11%	12%	49%	51%	?	±3	Landline
26–27 Mar, 2–3 Apr 2016	Morgan^[46]	42%	31%	13%	14%	52.5%	47.5%	3,174	±1	In person and SMS
21 Mar 2016	ReachTEL^[47]	46.6%	34.4%	10.5%	8.6%	52%	48%	3,274	?	Telephone (random)
17–20 Mar 2016	Newspoll^[48]	43%	34%	12%	11%	51%	49%	?	±3%	Landline
16–20 Mar 2016	Essential^[49]	43%	38%	10%	9%	50%	50%	1,790	±3	Online (members)
12–13, 19–20 Mar 2016	Morgan^[50]	40%	33%	14%	13%	49.5%	50.5%	2,948	±1	In person and SMS
10–12 Mar 2016	Ipsos^[51]	45%	31%	14%	10%	53%	47%
3–6 Mar 2016	Newspoll^[52]	43%	35%	12%	10%	50%	50%
2–6 Mar 2016	Essential^[53]	43%	37%	10%	10%	50%	50%
27–28 Feb, 5–6 Mar 2016	Morgan^[54]	43%	29.5%	13%	14.5%	53%	47%
24–28 Feb 2016	Essential^[55]	43%	38%	10%	9%	50%	50%
18–21 Feb 2016	Newspoll^[56]	43%	35%	12%	10%	50%	50%
17–21 Feb 2016	Essential^[57]	44%	35%	10%	11%	52%	48%
13–14, 20–21 Feb 2016	Morgan^[58]	43.5%	29.5%	15%	12%	52.5%	47.5%
11–13 Feb 2016	Ipsos^[59]	44%	32%	15%	10%	52%	48%
11 Feb 2016	ReachTEL^[60]	48.1%	32.8%	10.1%	9%	54%	46%
3–7 Feb 2016	Essential^[61]	44%	35%	10%	10%	52%	48%
30–31 Jan, 6–7 Feb 2016	Morgan^[62]	43.5%	29%	16%	11.5%	52.5%	47.5%
28–31 Jan 2016	Newspoll^[63]	46%	34%	11%	9%	53%	47%
16–17, 23–24 Jan 2016	Morgan^[64]	43.5%	28%	15%	13.5%	55%	45%
21 Jan 2016	ReachTEL^[65]	48.5%	31.8%	10.8%	9.1%	55%	45%
15–18 Jan 2016	Essential^[66]	44%	35%	10%	12%	51%	49%
2–3, 9–10 Jan 2016	Morgan^[67]	47%	29%	13%	11%	56%	44%
15 Dec 2015	Essential^[68]	45%	35%	10%	10%	52%	48%
5–6, 12–13 Dec 2015	Morgan^[69]	48%	27%	14.5%	10.5%	57.5%	42.5%
8 Dec 2015	Essential^[70]	44%	36%	11%	10%	51%	49%
4–6 Dec 2015	Newspoll^[71]	45%	33%	12%	10%	53%	47%
1 Dec 2015	Essential^[72]	44%	35%	11%	10%	51%	49%
21–22, 28–29 Nov 2015	Morgan^[73]	46.5%	28.5%	14%	11%	56%	44%
26 Nov 2015	ReachTEL^[74]	48.8%	31.1%	11.2%	8.9%	55%	45%
24 Nov 2015	Essential^[75]	45%	35%	10%	10%	52%	48%
19–22 Nov 2015	Newspoll^[76]	46%	33%	11%	10%	53%	47%
7–8, 14–15 Nov 2015	Morgan^[77]	46%	28%	14.5%	11.5%	56%	44%
12–14 Nov 2015	Ipsos^[78]^{[note 1]}	48%	29%	13%	10%	57%	43%
10 Nov 2015	Essential^[79]	45%	35%	10%	11%	52%	48%
6–8 Nov 2015	Newspoll^[80]	46%	34%	10%	10%	53%	47%
3 Nov 2015	Essential	45%	34%	11%	10%	53%	47%
24–25 Oct, 1 Nov 2015	Morgan^[81]	47%	28.5%	14.5%	10%	56.5%	43.5%
27 Oct 2015	Essential^[82]	45%	35%	11%	9%	52%	48%
23–25 Oct 2015	Newspoll^[83]	45%	35%	11%	9%	52%	48%
22 Oct 2015	ReachTEL^[84]	46.7%	33.0%	11.3%	9.1%	53%	47%
20 Oct 2015	Essential^[85]	44%	36%	11%	9%	51%	49%
10–11, 17–18 Oct 2015	Morgan^[86]	46.5%	27.5%	15.5%	10.5%	56%	44%
15–17 Oct 2015	Ipsos^[87]	45%	30%	14%	10%	54%	46%
13 Oct 2015	Essential^[88]	44%	36%	10%	10%	51%	49%
9–11 Oct 2015	Newspoll^[89]	43%	35%	12%	10%	50%	50%
26–27 Sep, 1–5 Oct 2015	Morgan^[90]	47%	27.5%	14%	11.5%	56%	44%
1–4 Oct 2015	Essential^[91]	44%	35%	10%	10%	52%	48%
24–28 Sep 2015	Essential	44%	35%	11%	11%	52%	48%
17–21 Sep 2015	Essential^[92]	43%	37%	11%	9%	50%	50%
19–20 Sep 2015	Morgan^[93]	46%	29.5%	13%	11.5%	55%	45%
17–20 Sep 2015	Newspoll^[94]	44%	35%	11%	10%	51%	49%
15–16 Sep 2015	Galaxy^[95]	44%	36%	11%	9%	51%	49%
15 Sep 2015	ReachTEL^[96]^{[note 2]}	43.3%	35.9%	11.9%	8.9%	50%	50%
14 Sep 2015	Turnbull replaces Abbott as Liberal leader
12–13 Sep 2015	Morgan^[97]	35%	36.5%	16%	12.5%	43%	57%
5–6 Sep 2015	Morgan^[98]	36.5%	35.5%	16.5%	11.5%	45%	55%
4–6 Sep 2015	Newspoll^[99]	39%	39%	12%	10%	46%	54%
26–30 Aug 2015	Essential^[100]	40%	38%	11%	12%	48%	52%
27 Aug 2015	ReachTEL^[101]	40.3%	37.5%	13.4%	8.9%	47%	53%
22–23 Aug 2015	Morgan^[102]	38.5%	36%	14%	11.5%	45.5%	54.5%
20–23 Aug 2015	Newspoll^[103]	38%	39%	13%	10%	46%	54%
13–15 Aug 2015	Ipsos^[104]	38%	36%	16%	11%	44%	56%
11–14 Aug 2015	Essential	41%	38%	10%	11%	48%	52%
8–9 Aug 2015	Morgan^[105]	36.5%	37%	15.5%	11%	43%	57%
8–9 Aug 2015	Newspoll^[106]	39%	39%	13%	9%	46%	54%
4–7 Aug 2015	Essential	40%	39%	11%	9%	47%	53%
6 Aug 2015	ReachTel^[107]	40.2%	38.3%	12.8%	8.7%	47%	53%
28–31 Jul 2015	Essential^[108]	39%	38%	12%	10%	47%	53%
30 Jul 2015	ReachTel^[109]	40.6%	38%	12.9%	8.6%	47%	53%
25–26 Jul 2015	Morgan^[110]	39%	35.5%	15%	10.5%	46%	54%
16–19 Jul 2015	Newspoll^[111]	40%	39%	12%	9%	47%	53%
14–17 Jul 2015	Essential	41%	38%	11%	11%	48%	52%
11–12 Jul 2015	Morgan^[112]	41.5%	34.5%	13.5%	10.5%	49%	51%
4–5 Jul 2015	Newspoll^[113]	40%	37%	13%	10%	48%	52%
2–4 Jul 2015	Ipsos^[114]	39%	35%	16%	10%	47%	53%
27–28 Jun 2015	Morgan^[115]	39%	36%	14%	11%	46.5%	53.5%
16 Jun 2015	Newspoll^[116]	40%	34%	14%	12%	49%	51%
16 Jun 2015	Essential	42%	39%	10%	9%	48%	52%
13–14 Jun 2015	Morgan^[117]	37.5%	37.5%	13.5%	11.5%	45.5%	54.5%
11–13 Jun 2015	Ipsos^[118]	40%	37%	14%	10%	47%	53%
11–13 Jun 2015	Essential	41%	40%	9%	10%	48%	52%
2 Jun 2015	Newspoll^[119]	41%	37%	13%	9%	48%	52%
2 Jun 2015	Essential^[120]	41%	37%	13%	9%	48%	52%
23–24, 30–31 May 2015	Morgan^[121]	41%	37%	13%	9%	47%	53%
26 May 2015	Essential^[120]	41%	39%	10%	9%	48%	52%
18 May 2015	Morgan^[122]	41.5%	35.5%	12.5%	10.5%	49%	51%
17 May 2015	Ipsos^[123]	43%	35%	13%	9%	50%	50%
17 May 2015	Newspoll^[124]	40%	37%	12%	11%	47%	53%
13 May 2015	ReachTel^[125]	41.1%	38.3%	12.1%	8.6%	47%	53%
7–10 May 2015	Essential^[126]	41%	39%	11%	10%	48%	52%
6 May 2015	Di Natale replaces Milne as Greens leader
4 May 2015	Newspoll^[127]	39%	35%	12%	14%	48%	52%
4 May 2015	Morgan^[128]	40%	37.5%	11.5%	11%	46.5%	53.5%
28 Apr 2015	Essential	40%	39%	10%	11%	47%	53%
21 Apr 2015	Essential	41%	39%	11%	10%	48%	52%
11–12, 18–19 Apr 2015	Morgan^[129]	38.5%	38%	12%	11%	47%	53%
14 Apr 2015	Essential	41%	39%	10%	11%	48%	52%
10–12 Apr 2015	Newspoll^[130]	41%	36%	11%	12%	49%	51%
9–11 Apr 2015	Ipsos^[131]	39%	38%	13%	9%	46%	54%
28–29 Mar, 3–6 Apr 2015	Morgan^[132]	40.5%	36%	12.5%	11%	47%	53%
29 Mar 2015	ReachTEL^[133]	39.6%	40.5%	11.5%	8.5%	46%	54%
20–22 Mar 2015	Newspoll^[134]	41%	37%	11%	11%	49%	51%
14–15, 21–22 Mar 2015	Morgan^[135]	38%	40%	11%	11%	44%	56%
17 Mar 2015	Essential	40%	39%	9%	11%	48%	52%
10 Mar 2015	Essential^[136]	40%	40%	9%	11%	47%	53%
7–8 Mar 2015	Newspoll^[137]	38%	39%	12%	11%	45%	55%
28 Feb–1, 7–8 Mar 2015	Morgan^[138]	39%	38%	12.5%	11.5%	46.5%	53.5%
26–28 Feb 2015	Ipsos	42%	36%	12%	10%	49%	51%
20–22 Feb 2015	Essential	40%	41%	9%	10%	47%	53%
20–22 Feb 2015	Newspoll	38%	38%	12%	12%	47%	53%
6–8 Feb 2015	Newspoll	35%	41%	12%	12%	43%	57%
31 Jan–1, 7–8 Feb 2015	Morgan	35%	41%	12%	12%	42.5%	57.5%
5 Feb 2015	ReachTEL	38.4%	41.4%	11.2%	8.9%	45%	55%
4–5 Feb 2015	Galaxy	36%	43%	11%	10%	43%	57%
28–30 Jan 2015	Galaxy	36%	43%	11%	10%	43%	57%
27 Jan 2015	ReachTEL	39.7%	40.2%	11.3%	8.8%	46%	54%
27 Jan 2015	Essential	39%	41%	9%	11%	46%	54%
20 Jan 2015	Essential	40%	40%	10%	11%	47%	53%
13 Jan 2015	Essential	38%	40%	10%	11%	46%	54%
12 Jan 2015	Morgan	38.5%	38.5%	9.5%	13.5%	45.5%	54.5%
23–27 Dec 2014	Morgan	37.5%	39.5%	12%	11%	43.5%	56.5%
16 Dec 2014	Essential	40%	38%	10%	12%	48%	52%
12–15 Dec 2014	Newspoll	38%	39%	12%	11%	46%	54%
6–7, 13–14 Dec 2014	Morgan	35%	41%	11.5%	12.5%	42.5%	57.5%
4–6 Dec 2014	Ipsos	40%	37%	12%	11%	48%	52%
2–4 Dec 2014	Galaxy	38%	41%	11%	10%	45%	55%
2 Dec 2014	Essential	40%	40%	9%	11%	47%	53%
29–30 Nov 2014	Newspoll	37%	37%	13%	13%	46%	54%
22–23, 29–30 Nov 2014	Morgan	37%	37.5%	12%	11.5%	46.5%	53.5%
25 Nov 2014	Essential	40%	39%	10%	11%	48%	52%
21 Nov 2014	ReachTEL	40.2%	38.7%	11.1%	9.9%	47%	53%
18 Nov 2014	Newspoll	36%	39%	11%	14%	45%	55%
17 Nov 2014	Essential	40%	38%	10%	12%	48%	52%
17 Nov 2014	Morgan	38%	38.5%	12%	11.5%	44.5%	55.5%
11 Nov 2014	Essential	40%	38%	10%	13%	48%	52%
4 Nov 2014	Newspoll	38%	36%	13%	13%	46%	54%
4 Nov 2014	Essential	40%	38%	10%	12%	48%	52%
25–26 Oct, 1–2 Nov 2014	Morgan	38.5%	37.5%	12.5%	11.5%	45.5%	54.5%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014	Ipsos	42%	37%	12%	10%	49%	51%
28 Oct 2014	Essential	39%	39%	9%	12%	47%	53%
23 Oct 2014	ReachTEL	40.1%	37.5%	11.5%	10.9%	48%	52%
21 Oct 2014	Essential	40%	39%	10%	11%	47%	53%
21 Oct 2014	Newspoll	38%	34%	14%	14%	47%	53%
20 Oct 2014	Morgan	39.5%	35.5%	12%	13%	48%	52%
14 Oct 2014	Essential	41%	39%	10%	10%	48%	52%
7 Oct 2014	Essential	40%	39%	10%	11%	48%	52%
4–5 Oct 2014	Morgan	40%	35%	12%	13%	47%	53%
4–5 Oct 2014	Galaxy	42%	36%	12%	10%	49%	51%
23 Sep 2014	Newspoll	41%	34%	11%	14%	49%	51%
13–14, 20–21 Sep 2014	Morgan	38.5%	37.5%	12%	12%	45.5%	54.5%
18 Sep 2014	ReachTEL	41.6%	37.4%	10.5%	10.5%	49%	51%
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014	Morgan	38%	37%	10.5%	14.5%	46%	54%
5–7 Sep 2014	Newspoll	39%	35%	14%	12%	48%	52%
22–24 Aug 2014	Newspoll	40%	34%	11%	15%	49%	51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014	Morgan	37.5%	38.5%	10.5%	13.5%	44.5%	55.5%
19 Aug 2014	Essential	40%	38%	9%	13%	48%	52%
9–10 Aug 2014	Morgan	37.5%	38%	11%	13.5%	44%	56%
8–10 Aug 2014	Newspoll	40%	34%	13%	13%	48%	52%
25–27 Jul 2014	Newspoll	36%	36%	12%	16%	46%	54%
11–13 Jul 2014	Newspoll	36%	37%	11%	16%	46%	54%
1 Jul 2014	Essential^[139]	40%	38%	9%	13%	48%	52%
30 Jun 2014	Morgan^[140]	35%	36.5%	12%	16.5%	42.5%	57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014	Newspoll	35%	37%	13%	15%	45%	55%
13–15 Jun 2014	Newspoll	37%	36%	10%	17%	47%	53%
30 May–1 Jun 2014	Newspoll	36%	37%	12%	15%	46%	54%
27 May 2014	Essential^[141]	40%	39%	9%	12%	48%	52%
20 May 2014	Essential^[142]	40%	40%	8%	12%	48%	52%
17–18 May 2014	Morgan^[143]	35%	38.5%	12%	14.5%	42.5%	57.5%
16–18 May 2014	Newspoll	36%	38%	11%	15%	45%	55%
15–17 May 2014	Nielsen^[144]	35%	40%	14%	12%	44%	56%
4 May 2014	Galaxy^[145]	39%	37%	11%	13%	48%	52%
2–4 May 2014	Newspoll^[146]	38%	34%	14%	14%	47%	53%
30 Apr 2014	Essential^[141]	40%	38%	10%	11%	48%	52%
22 Apr 2014	Morgan^[147]	38.5%	34%	13%	14.5%	48%	52%
15 Apr 2014	Essential^[148]	42%	37%	10%	11%	50%	50%
13 Apr 2014	Nielsen^[149]	40%	34%	17%	9%	48%	52%
8 Apr 2014	Essential^[150]	42%	38%	9%	11%	49%	51%
7 Apr 2014	Morgan^[151]	38.5%	34.5%	12%	15%	48.5%	51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014	Newspoll^[152]	43%	34%	11%	12%	51%	49%
25 Mar 2014	Morgan^[153]	38%	38.5%	11%	12.5%	45.5%	54.5%
25 Mar 2014	Essential^[154]	44%	37%	9%	11%	51%	49%
21–23 Mar 2014	Newspoll^[155]	40%	36%	13%	11%	48%	52%
18 Mar 2014	Essential^[156]	43%	36%	9%	12%	51%	49%
13–15 Mar 2014	Nielsen^[157]	44%	35%	12%	10%	51%	49%
7–9 Mar 2014	Newspoll	41%	35%	11%	13%	49%	51%
5 Mar 2014	Essential^[158]	44%	38%	8%	10%	51%	49%
23 Feb 2014	Morgan^[159]	41%	35.5%	10.5%	13%	49.5%	50.5%
21–23 Feb 2014	Newspoll^[160]	39%	39%	10%	12%	46%	54%
15 Feb 2014	Nielsen^[161]	44%	33%	12%	11%	52%	48%
7–9 Feb 2014	Newspoll^[162]	41%	35%	12%	12%	49%	51%
28 Jan 2014	Morgan^[163]	39.5%	37%	11.5%	12%	47%	53%
23 Jan 2014	ReachTEL	39.8%	40.6%	9.1%	9.1%	47%	53%
17–20 Jan 2014	Essential^[164]	43%	37%	9%	11%	51%	49%
13 Jan 2014	Morgan^[165]	38%	39%	10.5%	12.5%	47.5%	52.5%
16 Dec 2013	Morgan^[166]	40.5%	38.5%	10%	11%	47.5%	52.5%
15 Dec 2013	ReachTEL	41.4%	40.4%	8.7%	9.5%	48%	52%
6–8 Dec 2013	Newspoll	40%	38%	11%	11%	48%	52%
28 Nov–2 Dec 2013	Essential^[167]	44%	36%	8%	11%	52%	48%
30 Nov–1 Dec 2013	Morgan (multi)^[168]	41.5%	38.5%	8.5%	12.5%	48.5%	51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013	Newspoll	43%	35%	10%	12%	52%	48%
21–23 Nov 2013	Nielsen^[169]	41%	37%	11%	11%	48%	52%
8–10 Nov 2013	Newspoll	45%	32%	12%	11%	53%	47%
25–27 Oct 2013	Newspoll	47%	31%	10%	12%	56%	44%
19–20 Oct 2013	Morgan^[170]	43.5%	34.5%	10%	12%	51.5%	48.5%
13 Oct 2013	Shorten replaces Rudd as Labor leader
21–22 Sep 2013	Morgan^[171]	43.5%	34%	10.5%	12%	50.5%	49.5%
19–22 Sep 2013	Essential^[172]	43%	37%	9%	11%	51%	49%
12–15 Sep 2013	Essential^[172]	44%	36%	9%	11%	53%	47%
7 Sep 2013	2013 election	45.6%	33.4%	8.7%	12.3%	53.5%	46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013	Morgan (multi)	45%	31.5%	9.5%	14%	54.5%	44.5%
5 Sep 2013	ReachTEL^[173]	43.5%	33.7%	10.2%	12.6%	53%	47%
3–5 Sep 2013	Newspoll	46%	33%	9%	12%	54%	46%

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction

More information Date, Firm ...


Date	Firm	Preferred prime minister		Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
		Turnbull	Shorten	Turnbull		Shorten
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016	Newspoll^[2]	48%	31%	40%	47%	36%	51%
30 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[3]	52.9%	47.1%
26–29 Jun 2016	Ipsos^[6]	49%	35%	49%	41%	42%	50%
23–26 Jun 2016	Essential^[7]	40%	29%	40%	40%	37%	39%
23–26 Jun 2016	Newspoll^[8]	45%	30%	37%	51%	35%	50%
23 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[9]	58.4%	41.6%
16–19 Jun 2016	Newspoll^[13]	46%	31%	36%	51%	35%	51%
16 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[14]	57.6%	42.4%
14–16 Jun 2016	Ipsos^[15]	48%	34%	47%	42%	43%	47%
9–12 Jun 2016	Essential^[16]	40%	29%	38%	40%	34%	40%
9 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[17]	55.4%	44.6%
2–5 Jun 2016	Newspoll^[19]	45%	30%	37%	51%	33%	52%
2 Jun 2016	ReachTEL^[20]	55.6%	44.4%
31 May – 2 Jun 2016	Ipsos^[21]	49%	31%	45%	42%	41%	47%
26–29 May 2016	Essential^[22]	40%	27%	41%	39%	34%	44%
26 May 2016	ReachTEL^[24]	54.9%	45.1%
19–22 May 2016	Newspoll^[26]	46%	31%	38%	50%	37%	49%
19 May 2016	ReachTEL^[27]	55.6%	44.4%
17–19 May 2016	Ipsos^[28]	47%	30%	48%	38%	40%	46%
12–15 May 2016	Essential^[30]	43%	28%	40%	42%	34%	43%
5–8 May 2016	Newspoll^[33]	49%	27%	38%	49%	33%	52%
5–7 May 2016	Ipsos^[33]	51%	29%	48%	40%	38%	49%
5 May 2016	ReachTEL^[35]	57.7%	42.3%
4–5 May 2016	Morgan	57%	24%	43%	41%	34%	49%
14–17 Apr 2016	Newspoll^[39]	47%	28%	36%	49%	31%	52%
14–16 Apr 2016	Ipsos^[42]	54%	27%	51%	38%	33%	55%
14 Apr 2016	ReachTEL^[43]	58.4%	41.6%
Apr 2016	Essential^[44]	44%	22%	39%	39%	30%	44%
31 Mar–3 Apr 2016	Newspoll^[45]	48%	27%	38%	48%	32%	53%
Mar 2016	Essential^[44]	48%	19%	45%	35%	27%	47%
21 Mar 2016	ReachTEL^[35]	60.0%	40.0%
10–12 Mar 2016	Ipsos^[51]	61%	24%	55%	32%	33%	52%
3–6 Mar 2016	Newspoll^[52]	55%	21%	44%	41%	30%	55%
Feb 2016	Essential^[61]	52%	15%	51%	27%	27%	48%
18–21 Feb 2016	Newspoll^[56]	55%	21%	48%	38%	28%	57%
11–13 Feb 2016	Ipsos^[59]	64%	19%	62%	24%	30%	55%
11 Feb 2016	ReachTEL^[60]	74.9%	25.1%
Jan 2016	Essential^[61]	51%	18%	51%	25%	27%	47%
28–31 Jan 2016	Newspoll^[63]	59%	20%	53%	31%	25%	60%
Dec 2015	Essential^[61]	54%	15%	56%	23%	27%	47%
4–6 Dec 2015	Newspoll^[71]	60%	14%	52%	30%	23%	61%
Nov 2015	Essential^[79]	55%	14%	56%	20%	27%	47%
26 Nov 2015	ReachTEL^[74]	71.4%	28.6%
19–22 Nov 2015	Newspoll^[76]	64%	15%	60%	22%	26%	57%
12–14 Nov 2015	Ipsos^[78]	69%	18%	69%	16%	29%	57%
6–8 Nov 2015	Newspoll^[80]	55%	14%	56%	20%	27%	47%
Oct 2015	Essential	48%	19%	47%	17%	30%	42%
23–25 Oct 2015	Newspoll^[174]	63%	17%	58%	23%	26%	58%
20–22 Oct 2015	Morgan^[175]	76%	14%	66%	18%	25%	62%
15–17 Oct 2015	Ipsos^[87]	67%	21%	68%	17%	32%	56%
9–11 Oct 2015	Newspoll	57%	19%	50%	25%	28%	53%
Sep 2015	Essential	53%	17%	N/A	N/A	29%	50%
17–20 Sep 2015	Newspoll	55%	21%	42%	24%	29%	54%
15–16 Sep 2015	Galaxy^[95]	51%	20%
15 Sep 2015	ReachTEL^[96]	61.9%	38.1%
15 Sep 2015	Morgan	70%	24%
		Abbott	Shorten	Abbott		Shorten
4–6 Sep 2015	Newspoll	37%	41%	30%	63%	30%	58%
27 Aug 2015	ReachTEL^[101]	42.1%	57.9%
20–23 Aug 2015	Newspoll^[103]	35%	40%	30%	63%	34%	52%
13–15 Aug 2015	Ipsos	39%	45%	35%	59%	39%	49%
11 Aug 2015	Essential	36%	32%	38%	53%	29%	52%
9 Aug 2015	Newspoll	39%	39%	33%	61%	29%	57%
6 Aug 2015	ReachTEL	41.5%	58.5%
31 Jul 2015	ReachTEL	44.9%	55.1%
16–19 Jul 2015	Newspoll^[111]	39%	36%	33%	60%	27%	59%
7 Jul 2015	Essential	37%	30%	37%	53%	27%	52%
6 Jul 2015	Newspoll	39%	39%	33%	60%	28%	56%
11–13 Jun 2015	Newspoll^[116]	41%	38%	34%	56%	28%	54%
11–13 Jun 2015	Ipsos^[118]	41%	42%
2 Jun 2015	Essential	38%	33%	39%	50%	32%	45%
2 Jun 2015	Newspoll^[119]	41%	37%	38%	53%	32%	50%
17 May 2015	Ipsos^[123]	44%	39%	42%	50%	41%	45%
17 May 2015	Newspoll^[124]	41%	40%	39%	52%	35%	46%
12 Apr 2015	Essential	35%	32%	36%	54%	32%	41%
5 Apr 2015	Newspoll^[127]	38%	38%	37%	56%	34%	50%
27 Apr 2015	Morgan	44%	39%	37%	53%	34%	48%
14 Apr 2015	Essential	33%	35%	33%	58%	33%	42%
10–12 Apr 2015	Newspoll^[130]	40%	41%	33%	59%	33%	51%
9–11 Apr 2015	Ipsos^[131]	38%	46%	34%	60%	42%	44%
20–22 Mar 2015	Newspoll^[134]	36%	41%	29%	61%	36%	47%
7–8 Mar 2015	Newspoll^[137]	33%	44%	28%	63%	39%	42%
26–28 Feb 2015	Ipsos	39%	44%	32%	62%	43%	43%
20–22 Feb 2015	Newspoll	35%	43%	25%	68%	35%	49%
6–8 Feb 2015	Newspoll	30%	48%	24%	68%	42%	40%
1 Feb 2015	Galaxy	27%	44%
28–30 Jan 2015	Galaxy	27%	44%
14 Jan 2015	Morgan	41%	43%	37%	52%	37%	40%
13 Jan 2015	Essential	35%	37%	37%	53%	39%	33%
28–30 Nov 2014	Newspoll	37%	44%	33%	58%	37%	43%
4–6 Dec 2014	Ipsos	39%	47%
28–30 Nov 2014	Newspoll	36%	43%	33%	57%	39%	43%
18 Nov 2014	Newspoll	37%	43%	36%	55%	39%	41%
11 Nov 2014	Essential	36%	34%	39%	50%	37%	38%
4 Nov 2014	Newspoll	39%	38%	37%	52%	37%	45%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014	Ipsos	41%	41%	42%	49%	43%	40%
21 Oct 2014	Newspoll	39%	38%	38%	53%	35%	46%
14 Oct 2014	Essential	38%	32%	40%	48%	35%	36%
23 Sep 2014	Newspoll	41%	37%	41%	52%	38%	43%
5–7 Sep 2014	Newspoll	37%	37%	35%	54%	36%	43%
22–24 Aug 2014	Newspoll	39%	40%	36%	55%	40%	39%
8–10 Aug 2014	Newspoll	41%	37%	36%	54%	36%	44%
25–27 Jul 2014	Newspoll	38%	38%	36%	53%	38%	41%
11–13 Jul 2014	Newspoll	36%	41%	31%	60%	34%	43%
27–29 Jun 2014	Newspoll	34%	44%	31%	62%	34%	41%
13–15 Jun 2014	Newspoll	37%	40%	30%	61%	34%	45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014	Newspoll	35%	45%	33%	59%	38%	43%
16–18 May 2014	Newspoll	34%	44%	30%	60%	42%	39%
15–17 May 2014	Nielsen	40%	51%	34%	62%	47%	39%
2–4 May 2014	Newspoll	40%	38%	35%	56%	35%	41%
13 Apr 2014	Nielsen	45%	44%	43%	50%	43%	41%
8 Apr 2014	Essential	42%	32%	41%	47%	34%	38%
4–6 Apr 2014	Newspoll	41%	33%	40%	47%	31%	42%
21–23 Mar 2014	Newspoll	43%	36%	40%	50%	36%	43%
13–15 Mar 2014	Nielsen	48%	43%	45%	49%	42%	42%
7–9 Mar 2014	Newspoll	42%	36%	38%	50%	33%	43%
21–23 Feb 2014	Newspoll^[160]	38%	37%	36%	52%	35%	39%
15 Feb 2014	Nielsen^[160]	49%	39%	45%	47%	40%	40%
7–9 Feb 2014	Newspoll	41%	33%	40%	45%	35%	35%
6–8 Dec 2013	Newspoll	41%	34%	40%	45%	44%	27%
22–24 Nov 2013	Newspoll	44%	33%	42%	42%	39%	27%
21–23 Nov 2013	Nielsen^[169]	49%	41%	47%	46%	51%	30%
8–10 Nov 2013	Newspoll	46%	30%	45%	38%	37%	24%
25–27 Oct 2013	Newspoll	47%	28%	47%	34%	32%	24%
2013 election		–	–	–	–	–	–
3–5 Sep 2013	Newspoll	45%		44%	50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

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[prefs-79] [N 1]
Ipsos asked respondents to nominate their own second preferences. Based only on 2013 preference flows, TPP is LNP 56% to ALP 44%.

[Turnbull-98] [N 2]
Malcolm Turnbull succeeded Tony Abbott as Liberal Party leader on 14 September 2015. Poll was conducted to gauge the public's response.

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State (seats)	L/NP 2PP	ALP 2PP	L/NP swing
New South Wales (47)	51.3	48.7	–3.1
Victoria (37)	47.6	52.4	–2.2
Queensland (30)	52.7	47.3	–4.3
Western Australia (16)	54.2	45.8	–4.1
South Australia (11)	53.8	46.2	+1.4
Tasmania (5)	47.3	52.7	–1.4
ACT & NT (4)	40.4	59.6	–2.7
Australia (150)	50.9	49.1	–2.6

Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2016

Opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

Graphical aggregate of national voting intention polling

Federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state

National polling

Voting intention

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction

Individual seat polling

Notes

References

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