Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2016

Opinion polling for the 2016 Spanish general election

Opinion polling for the 2016 Spanish general election

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In the run up to the 2016 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 11th Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 20 December 2015, to the day the next election was held, on 26 June 2016.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Electoral polling

Nationwide polling

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 20 December 2015 to 26 June 2016, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Hypothetical scenarios

Podemos–IU alliance (before confirmation)

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

PP candidates

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

PSOE candidates

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Sub-national polling

Leadership polling

Preferred coalition

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Notes

  1. 19.4% would prefer Podemos as the leading party; 8.8% would prefer PSOE as the leading party.
  2. 39.4% would prefer a single-party government of the most voted party.
  3. All would prefer a PP government with external support from C's and PSOE; 10.6% would see Mariano Rajoy as Prime Minister; 14.1% would see another PP leader as Prime Minister.
  4. 21.5% would prefer a PSOEPodemosIU coalition government; 9.8% would prefer a PSOE minority government with external support from Podemos and IU.
  5. 11.6% would prefer a PSOEC's coalition government; 6.9% would prefer a PSOE minority government with external support from C's.

References

  1. "Especial informativo - Elecciones Generales 2016". RTVE (in Spanish). 26 June 2016.
  2. "ESPAÑA, 26 Junio 2016. Sondeo a pie de urna SigmaDos". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 June 2016.
  3. "Elecciones Generales del 26-J" (PDF). NC Report (in Spanish). 26 June 2016.
  4. "La izquierda llega al 26-J rozando la mayoría absoluta". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 25 June 2016.[permanent dead link]
  5. "El PP remonta tras el 'brexit'". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 25 June 2016. Archived from the original on 27 June 2016. Retrieved 25 June 2016.
  6. "El PP pierde fuelle tras el 'Fernándezgate'". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 24 June 2016. Archived from the original on 22 September 2017. Retrieved 24 June 2016.
  7. "El PP pierde otro escaño en beneficio del PSOE". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 23 June 2016. Archived from the original on 26 June 2016. Retrieved 23 June 2016.
  8. "Ciudadanos frena el ascenso del PP". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 22 June 2016. Archived from the original on 24 June 2016. Retrieved 22 June 2016.
  9. "El PP acelera la remontada con dos escaños más". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 21 June 2016. Archived from the original on 20 October 2017. Retrieved 21 June 2016.
  10. "Elecciones Generales de 2016. Resultados" (PDF). GIPEyOP (in Spanish). 20 June 2016.
  11. "El PP resiste con 121 diputados y Podemos sube a 85". Expansión (in Spanish). 19 June 2016.
  12. "Elecciones generales 2016. Estudio de intención de voto" (PDF). Infortécnica (in Spanish). 19 June 2016.
  13. "ESPAÑA, Junio 2016. Sondeo Invymark (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 June 2016.
  14. "El PSOE atrapa a Unidos Podemos a seis días del 26-J". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 20 June 2016.
  15. "Barómetro Electoral de TNS Demoscopia. 20 de junio, 2016". TNS (in Spanish). 20 June 2016. Archived from the original on 9 August 2016. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  16. "Termómetro electoral: el sondeo definitivo del 26J". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 20 June 2016. Archived from the original on 18 July 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  17. "El PP remonta y el PSOE gana terreno a Unidos Podemos". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 19 June 2016.
  18. "El PSOE repunta en el ecuador de la campaña". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 18 June 2016.
  19. "El PSOE decide quién gobierna". La Provincia (in Spanish). 19 June 2016.
  20. "Tracking 18/06/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 June 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 19 November 2017. Retrieved 20 June 2016.
  21. "La izquierda se aleja de la mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 17 June 2016.
  22. "El Partido Popular crece a costa de Ciudadanos". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 17 June 2016.
  23. "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER (17/ 6/ 2016)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 17 June 2016.
  24. Miguel, Rafa de (18 June 2016). "Unidos Podemos se consolida segundo y roza la mayoría absoluta con el PSOE". El País (in Spanish).
  25. "Barómetro Preelectoral (III): Más que de ganar, se trata de 'ser necesario'". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 19 June 2016. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
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  27. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes (junio 2016)". Simple Lógica (in Spanish). 20 June 2016.
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  29. "ESPAÑA, Junio 2016. Estudio Redondo & Asociados". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 May 2016.
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  33. "La izquierda roza la mayoría absoluta". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 20 June 2016.
  34. "ESPAÑA, Junio 2016. Sondeo Sondaxe". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 June 2016.
  35. "Unidos Podemos se consolida en segunda posición". El País (in Spanish). 11 June 2016.
  36. "Sondeo preelectoral de Metroscopia". El País (in Spanish). 10 June 2016.
  37. "Barómetro Preelectoral (II): ¿Un gobierno sin Rajoy?". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 12 June 2016. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
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  39. "La izquierda rozará la mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 13 June 2016.
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  41. "Termómetro electoral: faltan quince días para las elecciones". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 9 June 2016. Archived from the original on 21 June 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  42. "Tracking 03/06/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 7 June 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 August 2016. Retrieved 6 June 2016.
  43. Miguel, Rafa de (4 June 2016). "Unidos Podemos deja atrás al PSOE y se afianza en segunda posición". El País (in Spanish).
  44. "Estimación de voto en junio de 2016". El País (in Spanish). 4 June 2016.
  45. "Barómetro Preelectoral (I): los réditos de la polarización". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 5 June 2016. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  46. "Unidos Podemos ya pasa en escaños al PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 May 2016.
  47. "Tracking 28/05/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 30 May 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 June 2016. Retrieved 30 May 2016.
  48. "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER (31/ 5/ 2016)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 31 May 2016.
  49. "Termómetro electoral a un mes de las elecciones de junio". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 26 May 2016. Archived from the original on 28 May 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  50. "Barómetro electoral y social. Mes de mayo de 2016-II" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 1 June 2016.
  51. "El PP crece e Iglesias consuma el "sorpasso"". La Razón (in Spanish). 23 May 2016.
  52. "Tracking 21/05/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 23 May 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 June 2016. Retrieved 23 May 2016.
  53. Miguel, Rafa de (21 May 2016). "La coalición Podemos-IU desplaza al PSOE de la segunda posición". El País (in Spanish).
  54. "Cuatro 'no ganadores' con peor imagen". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 22 May 2016. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  55. "Pulso Electoral: así 'votará' la abstención el #26J". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 23 May 2016. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
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  57. "ESPAÑA, Mayo 2016. Estudio Redondo & Asociados". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 May 2016.
  58. "Fuerte subida de Podemos-IU y crecimiento del PP". El Español (in Spanish). 14 May 2016.
  59. "Una encuesta sitúa a Unidos Podemos en segundo lugar". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2016.
  60. "SPAIN, May 2016. NC Report poll (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 May 2016.
  61. "Los votantes de Rivera vuelven al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 8 May 2016.
  62. "SPAIN, May 2016. NC Report poll". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 May 2016.
  63. "Sondeo electoral: previa de las elecciones de junio". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 13 May 2016. Archived from the original on 19 May 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  64. "Tracking 30/04/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 2 May 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 June 2016. Retrieved 2 May 2016.
  65. "SPAIN, April 2016. NC Report poll (6)". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 May 2016.
  66. "SPAIN, April 2016. Invymark poll (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 April 2016.
  67. Miguel, Rafa de (30 April 2016). "El aumento de la abstención apuntala la victoria del PP el 26-J". El País (in Spanish).
  68. "Barómetro electoral: mayo 2016". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 1 May 2016. Archived from the original on 2 March 2018. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  69. "Tracking 23/04/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 24 April 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 June 2016. Retrieved 24 April 2016.
  70. "SPAIN, April 2016. NC Report poll (5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 24 April 2016.
  71. "La alianza de IU y Podemos no rompe el bloqueo". El Mundo (in Spanish). 23 April 2016.
  72. "Termómetro Político: sin coalición de izquierdas gobernará la derecha". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 26 April 2016. Archived from the original on 26 April 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  73. "El PP no acusa el golpe del "efecto Soria"". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 April 2016.
  74. "Tracking 16/04/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 May 2016. Retrieved 17 April 2016.
  75. "SPAIN, April 2016. Invymark poll (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 April 2016.
  76. "Barómetro Político de TNS Demoscopia. Abril 2016". TNS (in Spanish). 14 April 2016. Archived from the original on 28 August 2016. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  77. "Estudio nacional primavera 2016" (PDF). NC Report (in Spanish). 14 April 2016.[permanent dead link]
  78. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes (abril 2016)". Simple Lógica (in Spanish). 15 April 2016.
  79. "Previsión de resultados ante unas elecciones anticipadas en España" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 21 April 2016.
  80. "El malhumor lastra el clima electoral del 26J". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 7 May 2016.
  81. "Cita electoral a ciegas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2016.
  82. "Tracking 09/04/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 10 April 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 June 2016. Retrieved 1 May 2016.
  83. "Pulso electoral (I): el cuatripartidismo se reinventa". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 7 April 2016. Archived from the original on 10 April 2016. Retrieved 7 April 2016.
  84. "Barómetro electoral y social. Mes de abril de 2016" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 13 April 2016.
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  91. "Barómetro electoral: abril 2016". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 3 April 2016. Archived from the original on 4 November 2016. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  92. "El PP es el que más voto fideliza, con un 88,9%". La Razón (in Spanish). 27 March 2016.
  93. "Tracking II 26/03/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 27 March 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 January 2019. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
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  98. "El PP y C's se quedan a un escaño de la absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 14 March 2016.
  99. "Tracking 12/03/2016" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 14 March 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 March 2016. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
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  111. "Los gráficos de la encuesta EL MUNDO-Sigma Dos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 20 February 2016.
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