Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Belgian_federal_election

Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections

Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections

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In the run up to the 2024 Belgian federal election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Belgium. The date range for these polls are from the 2019 Belgian federal election, held on 25 May, to the present day. The results of nationwide polls are usually numerically split into the three Belgian regions: Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia. Federal seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives are presented together under these regional polls. The federal election will be part of a group of elections which also include the regional elections and the European elections. Some polls might be undefined voting intentions without differentiating between the elections.

Flanders

Federal

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region.

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

Regional

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

Wallonia

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region.

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

Brussels

The graph and the table below show polling results in the Brussels Region (which may be part of a larger, nationwide poll). In September 2022, only polling results for Francophone parties were published for polls conducted for VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir.

Scatter plot with moving average showing the results of the polls in the Brussels Region since the last federal elections.
More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

Seat projections

The graph and table below shows seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives according to a reporting newspaper or polling firm.

By party

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

By political family

Below are tallies for each ideological 'group' as well as probable coalitions. In bold on dark grey, if the coalition commands an absolute majority.

Note that "asymetrical" coalitions are now frequent: between 2007 and 2011, PS was part of each cabinet but not sp.a (Vooruit); and between 2014 and 2018, the Michel Government included cd&v but not cdH (LE), as well as the N-VA, of which there is no equivalent in Wallonia.

Coalition seat projections

Political family seat projections

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

European Parliament election

Dutch-speaking

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

French-speaking

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling firm ...

See also

Notes

  1. Includes the People's Party, which dissolved in June 2019 after the elections
  2. Includes LE, which broke with their Christian democratic tradition on 17 March 2022
  3. Example of a Purple-Green coalition: Verhofstadt I Government
  4. Example of a Swedish coalition: Michel I Government

References

  1. "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang met voorsprong de grootste, Vooruit neemt een duik" (in Dutch). 22 March 2024. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  2. "Nieuwe peiling zet De Wever opnieuw met twee voeten in de campagne" (in Dutch). 11 March 2024. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  3. Roelandt, Astrid (17 June 2022). "GROTE PEILING. Open Vld op laagste peil ooit, N-VA bijna terug op verkiezingsresultaat" (in Dutch). Retrieved 17 June 2022.
  4. David Coppi (15 December 2023). "Grand Baromètre : le PTB caracole à Bruxelles et dégringole en Wallonie (infographies)". Le Soir. Retrieved 16 December 2023. Mais d'autres électeurs envisagent de donner leur voix à la N-VA (1,2 %) si elle présente des listes au sud du pays et également à « Chez nous », mouvement d'extrême droite (1,4 % contre 0,3 % en septembre) ainsi qu'à d'autres formations comme le Parti Populaire.
  5. "Grand Baromètre: le PTB monte en puissance". Le Soir (French). 12 March 2021.
  6. "Ipsos: De Grote Peiling – Le Grand Baromètre" (PDF). Het Laatste Nieuws (in Dutch and French). 31 March 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
  7. "Federale verkiezingen 2019: alle uitslagen". 26 May 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  8. "seat projections". 22 March 2024.
  9. "seat projections". 20 February 2024.
  10. "seat projections". 16 December 2023.
  11. "seat projections". 12 October 2023.
  12. "seat projections". 29 September 2023.
  13. "Seat projections". 12 March 2021.
  14. "Euronews-Ipsos Poll". 19 March 2024. Retrieved 17 April 2024.

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