Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election

Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election

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In the run up to the next Spanish general election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 15th Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 23 July 2023, to the present day.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Electoral polling

Nationwide polling

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 23 July 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

2024
More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
2023
More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Sub-national polling

Basque Country

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Catalonia

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Galicia

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Murcia

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Leadership polling

Notes

  1. Within Sumar.
  2. Alternative projection based on raw CIS data.

References

  1. "PP y Vox superan con holgura la mayoría absoluta y dejan atrás al bloque progresista". Público (in Spanish). 13 April 2024.
  2. "EP (14abr): descenso de Vox y ligero retroceso del PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 April 2024.
  3. "EP (7abr): Sumar se descuelga, suben PP y PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 7 April 2024.
  4. "ElectoPanel (31mar): Sumar se hunde hasta el unidígito". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
  5. "Barómetro Mensual. Abril 2024" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 8 April 2024.
  6. "ElectoPanel (24mar): Vox se distancia de Sumar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 March 2024.
  7. "ElectoPanel (17mar): ¿cambio en las tendencias?". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 March 2024.
  8. "ElectoPanel (10 mar): el PSOE continúa cayendo". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 March 2024.
  9. "El Partido Popular se dispara hasta los 163 escaños". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 11 March 2024.
  10. "Barómetro Mensual. Marzo 2024" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 11 March 2024.
  11. "ElectoPanel (3mar): bajón del PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 March 2024.
  12. "EP (25feb): PP y Vox suben y lograrían hoy la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 25 February 2024.
  13. "EP (18feb): tensa calma a la espera del 'efecto Galicia'". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 February 2024.
  14. "ElectoPanel (28ene): ligero ascenso del PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 January 2024.
  15. "ElectoPanel (21ene): empate entre Sumar y Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 January 2024.
  16. "El PP sube y ya saca más de siete puntos de ventaja al PSOE". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 15 January 2024.
  17. "Barómetro Mensual. Enero 2024" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 15 January 2024.
  18. "Estimaciones de voto con CIS enero 2024" (PDF). infoLibre (in Spanish). 21 January 2024.
  19. "Recálculo de los datos del CIS. 18/01/2024". SocioMétrica (in Spanish). 18 January 2024.
  20. "ElectoPanel (31dic): el bipartidismo se refuerza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 December 2023.
  21. "ElectoPanel (24dic): sin mayorías para los bloques". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 December 2023.
  22. "EP (17dic): Podemos baja y se quedaría fuera del Congreso". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 December 2023.
  23. "ElectoPanel (3Dic): subida de Vox y nacionalistas en escaños". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 December 2023.
  24. "Barómetro Mensual. Diciembre 2023" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 5 December 2023.
  25. "ElectoPanel (26N): bajada de Sumar, que aprovechan PSOE y PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 26 November 2023.
  26. "ElectoPanel (19N): descenso de Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 19 November 2023.
  27. "El PP se dispara hasta los 151 escaños". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 21 November 2023.
  28. "ElectoPanel (12N): la derecha lograría hoy la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 November 2023.
  29. "ElectoPanel (5Nov): Puigdemont suma apoyos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 5 November 2023.
  30. "Barómetro Mensual. Noviembre 2023" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 6 November 2023.
  31. "ElectoPanel (29oct): Vox y Sumar igualan sus fuerzas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 October 2023.
  32. "ElectoPanel (22oct): baile de escaños entre bloques". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 October 2023.
  33. "El PP sube a costa de Vox pero no logra despegarse del PSOE". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 16 October 2023.
  34. "Barómetro Mensual. Octubre 2023" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 9 October 2023.
  35. "ElectoPanel (1Oct): PP y PSOE, empatados en votos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 1 October 2023.
  36. "ElectoPanel (24S): subida de Junts y EH Bildu, bajan PP y PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 September 2023.
  37. "ElectoPanel (3S): desgaste de la derecha". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 September 2023.
  38. "Barómetro Mensual. Septiembre 2023" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 4 September 2023.
  39. "ElectoPanel (27Ag): ajustada lucha por la primera posición". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 August 2023.
  40. "ElectoPanel (13Ag): baja Vox, mínimos para ERC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 August 2023.
  41. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 21 March 2024.
  42. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  43. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Diciembre de 2023" (PDF). OBEDE (in Spanish). 20 December 2023.

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