Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the next general election must be held no later than 28 January 2025. The Act ensures that, if it has not already been dissolved at the request of the prime minister, Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met (17 December 2024) and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the next United Kingdom general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).

National poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a poll result is a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded and displayed in bold.

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the table below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain, which is made up of England, Scotland and Wales, and excludes Northern Ireland, and "UK" means United Kingdom, which includes Northern Ireland. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the SNP only stand candidates in Scotland. The parties with the greatest numbers of votes in the 2019 general election are listed here. Other parties are listed in the "Others" column.

"Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom, namely the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Greens, and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland. The three parties share a commitment to environmental policies, but are independent of one another, with each contesting elections only in its own region.

The polling company ComRes was acquired by Savanta in July 2019.[1] It was rebranded as Savanta ComRes in November 2019[2] and as Savanta in December 2022.[3] In August 2023 the market research company Omnisis rebranded its public polling arm as We Think.[4] In October 2023, the Norstat group acquired Panelbase.[5] None of these organisational changes entailed changes in methodology.

2024

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2023

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2022

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2021

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2020

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Seat predictions

Most polls are reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters do not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons. Other organisations including Electoral Calculus make rolling projections based on an aggregate of publicly available polls and provide a methodology whereby vote share numbers can be translated to a prediction of seat numbers.

Tabulated below are the outputs from large polls have been carried out to run multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) models, which yield predictions for each constituency.[33]

In the 650-seat House of Commons, 326 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority. Negative values in the rightmost column below indicate that the party with the most seats would not have a majority.

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Polling in the nations and regions

London

Graph of opinion polls conducted in London
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Northern Ireland

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Scotland

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland
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Wales

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
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Constituency polling

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) will be a new seat at the next election, replacing Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

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Chingford and Woodford Green

Chingford and Woodford Green will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections.

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Clacton

Clacton will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections.

More information Dates conducted, Pollster ...

Godalming and Ash

Godalming and Ash will be a new seat at the next election, mostly replacing South West Surrey. The Conservative candidate is Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt.[49][50]

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Mid Bedfordshire

Mid Bedfordshire will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections.

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Wokingham

Wokingham will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections.

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Wycombe

Wycombe will maintain its 2019 boundaries at the next election.

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Ynys Môn

Ynys Môn will maintain its 2019 boundaries at the next election.

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Other polling

"Red wall"

Polling firms publish polls of the "red wall", which take respondents from a selection of constituencies gained by the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. Different pollsters use different sets of constituencies for their polling.

Deltapoll

Deltapoll have published a poll of the 57 constituencies that the Conservatives gained from Labour and the Liberal Democrats without specifying any regions.

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Focaldata

Focaldata have published a poll of the 44 seats the Conservatives gained from Labour in northern England and the Midlands.

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JL Partners

JL Partners publishes polls of forty-five seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales, apart from Bridgend, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham and Ynys Môn.

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies

Redfield & Wilton Strategies publishes polls of 37 constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2019 that had been held by Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017, as well as Burnley, Redcar and Vale of Clwyd

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YouGov

YouGov publishes polls of all fifty seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales.

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"Blue wall"

Polling firms publish polls of the "blue wall", which take respondents from constituencies held by the Conservatives but which might be gained by Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Different pollsters use different sets of constituencies for their polling.

JL Partners

JL Partners have published a poll of the forty-five seats in southern England which the Conservatives won in 2019 with a majority of under 10,000 votes.

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More in Common

More in Common have published a poll of the thirty-nine seats which the Conservatives won in 2019 and saw the largest total swing towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the 2017 and 2019 elections.

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Opinium

Opinium published a poll of the forty-one constituencies held by the Conservatives since 2010, where Labour or the Liberal Democrats outperformed their national swing against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019, with a majority of under 10,000.[51]

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies

Redfield and Wilton Strategies publishes polls of the forty-two constituencies in southern England which voted Conservative in the last three general elections, where more than a quarter of adults have degrees, where more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and where the Conservative majority over Labour was under 10,000 or the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats was under 15,000, in the 2019 general election.[lower-alpha 20]

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YouGov

YouGov specifies the blue wall to be constituencies held by the Conservative Party in the South or East of England in the 2019 election, with a population which by majority voted to remain in the European Union and have a higher level of graduates than the country at large.[52]

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Other geographical samples

Find Out Now

Find Out Now conducted a poll of voters in England and Wales.

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Redfield and Wilton

Redfield and Wilton has conducted a poll of voters in the West Midlands metropolitan county.

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Survation

Survation has conducted a poll of voters in Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire.

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Survation has conducted a poll of voters in Coventry.

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Survation has published multiple polls of the 100 most rural constituencies in England.

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YouGov

YouGov produced a poll of seats in South West England that had elected a Conservative MP in every election since the 2015 general election and where a majority of voters were estimated to have voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. They branded these seats the "Conservative Celtic Fringe".

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YouGov have also conducted a poll of voters in constituencies which contain settlements identified by the Office for National Statistics as coastal towns.

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Labour Together

A poll was conducted by, or on behalf of, Labour Together of "people in villages or rural areas".

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Ethnic minority voters

Graph of opinion polls conducted
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Muslim voters

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Private renter voters

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Young voters

Savanta has published polls of voters aged between 18 and 25. The 2019 result comes from the British Election Study's estimate of voters aged 18 to 24.

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See also

Notes

  1. The headline voting intention figures are calculated by YouGov from its MRP seat projections.
  2. Values calculated from the weighted responses for each party, after excluding Don't Know and Would Not Vote.
  3. The published lead was 15 points. This is not apparent from the party numbers due to rounding.
  4. Including Plaid Cymru
  5. Survation also polled voting intention if Liz Truss were Prime Minister, which saw Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 29%, Liberal Democrats on 11% and others on 12%.
  6. Opinium announced they had amended their methodology, so it cannot be compared directly to previous Opinium polls.
  7. SNP and Plaid Cymru are listed together.
  8. First MRP to take into account new constituency boundaries
  9. "The baseline MRP by Focaldata predicted Labour winning 469 seats and the Conservatives 128 seats. 'Don't Know' was predicted to win two seats, namely Aberdeenshire North and Moray East; as well as Boston and Skegness. Given in a General Election scenario 'Don't Know' would not be on the ballot paper, we reallocated these seats to the party in second place. This meant that we awarded Aberdeenshire North and Moray East to the Labour Party; and then Boston and Skegness to the Conservatives in all scenarios and analyses that we performed."
  10. This includes the 18 seats of Northern Ireland. No polling in Northern Ireland was conducted as part of this poll.
  11. 2 Reform UK, 1 Other
  12. 10,010 sample, 20–26 October 2022; 2,000 sample, 28–30 October 2022.[34] "The MRP poll by Focaldata of 10,010 people, on behalf of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, was conducted about the time of Truss's resignation and updated with an MRP poll of 2,000 people after Sunak took over."[35]
  13. 517 listed; one seat (Clacton) is reported as "Don't Know", but "in reality the seat would be won by Labour", and is therefore added to Labour's projected total seat count.[34]
  14. Polling was of GB adults only, but 18 seats were assigned to "Northern Ireland Parties" — without differentiation — in the reporting of the MRP's outcome
  15. This includes the 18 seats of Northern Ireland. No polling in Northern Ireland was conducted as part of this poll.
  16. Jonathan Edwards is the incumbent MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, elected as a Plaid MP. He was suspended from the party after being arrested for domestic assault.[47]
  17. Poll conducted based on the previous boundaries for this constituency, not the boundaries used at the general election.
  18. They also conducted a poll in the scenario that Farage was the Reform UK candidate, which found Reform UK at 38%, Conservatives at 27%, and Labour at 23%
  19. Results of poll displayed "a 17-point swing to Labour compared with 2019"

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