Opinion_polling_in_individual_constituencies_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies (2010–2015)

Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies (2010–2015)

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Prior to the 2015 general election, various polling organisations conducted opinion polling in specific constituencies. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article. However, most opinion polling covers Great Britain, where the results are published in this article here.

Opinion polls were conducted gradually from the months after the previous general election held on 6 May 2010, and increased in frequency before the general election which took place on 7 May 2015. Though most opinion polls published are for general election voting intention, some polls shown are for voting intention in separate by-elections.

Polls of individual constituencies are expensive compared to national polling and were previously an infrequent practice in the UK. However, a large number of individual constituency polls were carried out in this period, most commissioned from independent polling providers by Lord Ashcroft, a Conservative peer and sponsor. In addition to polls listed in this article, other polling of constituencies has been carried out in private, often by political parties.[1]

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system true marginal seats are, by definition, decisive as to the election outcome.[2]

Constituency polls

England

Amber Valley

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Bedford

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Bermondsey and Old Southwark

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Berwick-upon-Tweed

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Birmingham Edgbaston

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Birmingham Yardley

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Blackpool North and Cleveleys

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Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

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Bolton West

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Boston and Skegness

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Bradford East

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Brent Central

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Brentford and Isleworth

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Brighton Kemptown

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Brighton Pavilion

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Bristol North West

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Bristol West

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Broxtowe

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Burnley

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Bury North

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Camborne and Redruth

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Cambridge

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Cannock Chase

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Carlisle

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Carshalton and Wallington

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Castle Point

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Cheadle

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Cheltenham

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Chippenham

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City of Chester

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Clacton

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Cleethorpes

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Colchester

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Colne Valley

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Corby

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Crewe and Nantwich

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Croydon Central

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Derby North

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Dewsbury

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Doncaster North

Note: Michael Ashcroft initially published incorrect results for his 18–23 Nov 2014 poll,[3] erroneously showing only a small Labour lead. The corrected poll results are below.

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Dover

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Dudley North

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Dudley South

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Ealing Central and Acton

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Eastbourne

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Eastleigh

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Elmet and Rothwell

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Enfield North

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Erewash

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Finchley and Golders Green

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Folkestone and Hythe

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Gloucester

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Great Grimsby

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Great Yarmouth

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Halesowen and Rowley Regis

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Halifax

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Hampstead and Kilburn

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Harlow

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Harrogate and Knaresborough

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Harrow East

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Hastings and Rye

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Hazel Grove

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Hendon

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Heywood and Middleton

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High Peak

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Hornsey and Wood Green

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Hove

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Ipswich

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Keighley

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Kingston and Surbiton

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Kingswood

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Lancaster and Fleetwood

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Lewes

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Lincoln

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Loughborough

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Manchester Withington

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Mid Dorset and North Poole

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Milton Keynes South

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Morecambe and Lunesdale

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Morley and Outwood

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Newark

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Newton Abbot

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North Cornwall

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North Devon

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North East Cambridgeshire

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North East Somerset

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North Warwickshire

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Norwich North

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Norwich South

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Nuneaton

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Oxford West and Abingdon

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Pendle

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Plymouth Moor View

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Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

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Portsmouth South

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Redcar

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Rochester and Strood

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Rother Valley

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Sheffield Hallam

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1: These figures represent the results when respondents were presented with named candidates. When asked to think only about the political parties [the methodology used by the Ashcroft polls] the figures showed a small Labour lead.[4]

Solihull

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Southampton Itchen

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South Basildon and East Thurrock

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South Swindon

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South Thanet

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South West Surrey

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St Austell and Newquay

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Stevenage

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Stockton South

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Stroud

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Sutton and Cheam

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Thurrock

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Torbay

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Twickenham

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Warwick & Leamington

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Watford

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Weaver Vale

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Wirral West

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Witney

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Worcester

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Wyre Forest

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Wythenshawe and Sale East

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Northern Ireland

Belfast East

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Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts

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Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

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Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

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Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

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Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

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Dumfries and Galloway

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Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

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Dundee West

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East Dunbartonshire

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East Renfrewshire

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Edinburgh North and Leith

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Edinburgh South

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Edinburgh South West

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Glasgow Central

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Glasgow East

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Glasgow North

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Glasgow North East

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Glasgow North West

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Glasgow South

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Glasgow South West

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Gordon

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Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

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Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

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Motherwell and Wishaw

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North East Fife

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Paisley and Renfrewshire South

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Ross, Skye and Lochaber

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West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

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West Dunbartonshire

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Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire

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Cardiff Central

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Cardiff North

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Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

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Vale of Glamorgan

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Multiple constituency polling

Some polls are carried out in specified subsets of marginal constituencies. Most of the polls for Lord Ashcroft were compilations of polls in individual constituencies.

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Explanatory notes

The Lord Ashcroft polls typically ask two voting intention questions, with the second question asking the respondent to think "specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there".[2] This latter question is reported in the tables above.

Most polling companies are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its disclosure rules; however, Michael Ashcroft, who commissioned many of these polls, is not a BPC member, despite having been invited to join. However, he contracts the conduct of his polls to BPC members.[5]

See also

Notes

  1. Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  2. Percentage for Greens based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  3. Percentages for UKIP/Green/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  4. Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  5. By-election polling
  6. This poll originally, erroneously, showed a small lead for the LDs: see http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-thanet-south/#more-7536
  7. Candidates named in the poll.
  8. Share for Greens based on a table that did not further prompt "don't know" and refusers.
  9. Based on a mean of the (non-aggregated) shares of 3%, 9%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 5%, 3% and 7% in the eight constituencies
  10. Based on non-aggregated shares of 3%, 2%, 2% and 2% in the four constituencies

References

  1. Patrick Wintour (19 February 2015). "Lib Dem polling brings hope of future coalition role". The Guardian.
  2. "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Michael Ashcroft. Retrieved 7 February 2015."Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Archived from the original on 19 May 2014. Retrieved 19 May 2014.

PThe dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.


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