Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2016

Opinion polling for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election

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The 2016 Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday 5 May 2016^[1] to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. It was the fifth general election since the parliament was re-established in 1999.

Polling data

Graphical summary

The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

2016

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
5 May	2016 Scottish Parliament election	2,279,153	46.5%	22.6%	22.0%	7.8%	1.1%	23.9%
2–4 May	YouGov/The Times	1,445	48%	22%	19%	7%	4%	26%
1–2 May	Survation/Daily Record	1,024	49%	21%	19%	7%	5%	28%
1 May	BBC Scotland debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
23–28 Apr	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,074	49%	23%	17%	6%	4%	26%
18–25 Apr	Ipsos MORI/STV^{[permanent dead link]}	1,015	51%	19%	18%	6%	6%	32%
1–24 Apr	TNS Archived 1 October 2017 at the Wayback Machine	1,035	52%	22%	17%	7%	3%	30%
15–20 Apr	Survation/Daily Record	1,005	53%	18%	17%	7%	5%	35%
11–15 Apr	BMG Research/Herald	1,012	53%	21%	16%	6%	3%	32%
6–15 Apr	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,021	51%	19%	18%	5%	7%	32%
7–11 Apr	YouGov/The Times	1,012	50%	21%	18%	5%	6%	29%
23 Mar–3 Apr	Survation/Unison Scotland	1,003	52%	21%	16%	6%	4%	31%
29 Mar	STV debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
24 Mar	BBC Scotland debate between Coburn, Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
2–22 Mar	TNS	1,013	56%	19%	15%	6%	3%	37%
10–17 Mar	Survation/Daily Record	1,051	54%	20%	16%	7%	4%	34%
7–9 Mar	YouGov/The Times	1,070	49%	19%	19%	6%	7%	30%
25–29 Feb	Survation/Daily Mail	1,022	54%	21%	16%	5%	4%	33%
3–24 Feb	TNS Archived 7 July 2017 at the Wayback Machine	1,036	60%	21%	13%	4%	2%	39%
11–16 Feb	Survation/Daily Record	1,006	53%	22%	16%	6%	3%	31%
1–7 Feb	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,000	53%	20%	16%	6%	5%	33%
1–4 Feb	YouGov/The Times	1,022	50%	19%	20%	6%	5%	30%
6–25 Jan	TNS	1,016	57%	21%	17%	3%	2%	36%
8–14 Jan	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,053	50%	21%	17%	6%	5%	29%
8–12 Jan	Survation/Daily Record	1,029	52%	21%	16%	7%	4%	31%

2015

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
16 Nov–14 Dec	TNS	1,035	58%	21%	12%	4%	5%	37%
9–16 Nov	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,029	50%	20%	18%	7%	5%	30%
16 Oct–4 Nov	TNS	1,034	58%	24%	12%	4%	2%	34%
9–13 Oct	YouGov/The Times	1,026	51%	21%	19%	5%	5%	30%
9–30 Sep	TNS	1,037	56%	21%	12%	6%	5%	35%
12 Sep	Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the Labour Party
7–10 Sep	Survation/The Scottish Daily Mail	1,010	53%	22%	14%	6%	5%	31%
7–10 Sep	YouGov/The Times	1,110	51%	22%	18%	4%	5%	29%
12 Aug–1 Sep	TNS	1,023	58%	23%	12%	5%	2%	35%
24–30 Aug	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,002	55%	20%	12%	7%	6%	35%
15 Aug	Kezia Dugdale becomes leader of Scottish Labour
10 July–3 Aug	TNS	1,029	62%	20%	12%	3%	2%	42%
19 June–8 July	TNS	1,056	60%	20%	14%	5%	2%	40%
3–7 July	Survation/Scottish Daily Mail	1,084	56%	20%	14%	7%	4%	36%
13–30 May	TNS	1,031	60%	19%	15%	3%	3%	41%
16 May	Jim Murphy resigns as leader of Scottish Labour
7 May	2015 United Kingdom general election
29 Apr–1 May	YouGov/The Times	1,162	49%	25%	15%	7%	4%	24%
22–27 Apr	Survation/Daily Record	1,015	54%	24%	13%	5%	4%	30%
16–20 Apr	YouGov/The Times	1,111	51%	25%	14%	6%	4%	26%
8–9 Apr	YouGov/The Times	1,056	49%	24%	16%	5%	5%	25%
13–19 Mar	ICM/Guardian	1,002	46%	26%	13%	5%	9%	20%
12–17 Mar	Survation/Daily Record	1,027	50%	26%	13%	5%	6%	24%
10–12 Mar	YouGov/The Times	1,049	46%	27%	14%	4%	5%	19%
12–17 Feb	Survation/Daily Record	1,011	48%	28%	13%	5%	7%	20%
29 Jan–2 Feb	YouGov/The Times	1,001	51%	26%	12%	4%	7%	25%
14 Jan–2 Feb	TNS^{[permanent dead link]}	1,006	47%	31%	13%	4%	5%	16%
12–19 Jan	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,001	53%	24%	11%	5%	7%	29%

2014

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
16–18 Dec	ICM/Guardian	1,004	44%	26%	12%	6%	11%	18%
15–18 Dec	Survation/Daily Record	1,000	51%	25%	15%	5%	5%	26%
13 Dec	Jim Murphy becomes leader of Scottish Labour
9–11 Dec	YouGov/The Sun	1,081	50%	28%	14%	3%	5%	22%
27 Nov	Release of Smith Commission Report
20 Nov	Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland
16 Nov	Nicola Sturgeon becomes leader of the SNP
6–13 Nov	Survation/Daily Record	1,001	50%	23%	14%	7%	6%	27%
27–30 Oct	YouGov/Times	1,078	46%	28%	12%	5%	9%	18%
22–29 Oct	Ipsos MORI	1,026	57%	23%	8%	6%	5%	34%
24 Oct	Johann Lamont resigns as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, triggering a leadership election
12 Sep – 1 Oct	Panelbase/Scottish National Party	1,049	42%	27%	15%	5%	10%	15%
19 Sep	Survation/Daily Mail	871	49%	31%	13%	3%	1%	18%
19 Sep	First Minister Alex Salmond announces his resignation, triggering a leadership election
18 Sep	Scottish independence referendum
15–17 Sep	YouGov/The Sun	3,237	40%	32%	15%	4%	9%	8%
12–16 Sep	Survation/Daily Mail	1,000	42%	31%	15%	6%	6%	11%
9–11 Sep	YouGov/The Times/The Sun	1,268	39%	35%	15%	4%	8%	4%
5–9 Sep	Survation/Daily Record	1,000	43%	33%	14%	4%	5%	10%
2–5 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,084	40%	33%	16%	4%	8%	7%
28 Aug – 1 Sep	YouGov/The Times/The Sun	1,063	39%	34%	15%	5%	7%	5%
12–15 Aug	YouGov/The Times	1,085	37%	37%	15%	4%	7%	Tied
4–7 Aug	YouGov/The Sun	1,142	36%	37%	16%	4%	7%	1%
28 Jul – 3 Aug	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,006	36%	34%	16%	6%	8%	2%
4–8 Jul	Survation/Daily Record	1,013	44%	31%	13%	5%	7%	13%
25–29 Jun	YouGov/The Times	1,206	35%	37%	15%	6%	8%	2%
12–16 Jun	YouGov/The Sun	1,039	35%	37%	14%	5%	9%	2%
8–10 Jun	Survation/Daily Record	1,004	46%	28%	13%	6%	6%	18%
16 May – 1 Jun	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,003	39%	30%	14%	5%	12%	9%
22 May	2014 European Parliament election
9–12 May	Survation/Daily Record	1,003	44%	32%	15%	5%	4%	12%
11–15 Apr	Survation/Sunday Post	1,002	46%	32%	13%	6%	4%	14%
4–7 Apr	Survation/Daily Record	1,001	45%	32%	14%	6%	4%	13%
20–24 Mar	YouGov/The Times	1,002	38%	35%	13%	7%	7%	3%
6–7 Mar	Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation	1,002	45%	34%	13%	5%	4%	11%
24–28 Feb	YouGov	1,257	39%	37%	14%	5%	5%	2%
17–18 Feb	Survation/Daily Mail	1,005	44%	31%	13%	6%	6%	13%
29 Jan – 6 Feb	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,012	43%	32%	14%	6%	6%	11%
29–31 Jan	Survation/Mail on Sunday	1,010	38%	36%	12%	9%	5%	2%
21–27 Jan	YouGov	1,192	34%	38%	15%	5%	7%	4%
23 Jan	2014 Cowdenbeath by-election

2013

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
13–20 Dec	Panelbase/Scottish National Party	1,012	40%	32%	15%	5%	8%	8%
29 Nov – 5 Dec	Ipsos MORI/STV News	1,006	36%	34%	15%	7%	7%	2%
24 October	2013 Dunfermline by-election
9–15 Sep	Ipsos MORI	1,000	41%	37%	13%	7%	2%	4%
30 Aug – 5 Sep	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,002	45%	32%	12%	5%	6%	13%
17–24 Jul	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,001	48%	30%	13%	4%	5%	18%
20 June	2013 Aberdeen Donside by-election
29 Apr – 5 May	Ipsos MORI/The Times	1,001	39%	36%	16%	8%	1%	2%
4–9 Feb	Ipsos MORI/The Times	1,003	43%	35%	13%	7%	2%	8%

2012

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
8–15 Oct	Ipsos MORI/The Times	1,003	40%	35%	13%	8%	4%	5%
7–13 Jun	Ipsos MORI	1,003	45%	32%	12%	6%	5%	13%
3 May	2012 Scottish local elections
27–29 Jan	Ipsos MORI	1,005	49%	23%	13%	10%	5%	26%
26 Jan – 1 Feb	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,008	43%	25%	12%	4%	3%	18%

2011

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
5 May	2011 Scottish Parliament election	1,989,222	45.4%	31.7%	13.9%	7.9%	1.1%	13.7%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Graphical summary

2016

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Green	Lib Dem	UKIP	RISE^[2]	Others	Lead
5 May	2016 Scottish Parliament election	2,285,752	41.7%	19.1%	22.9%	6.6%	5.2%	2.0%	0.5%	2.0%	18.8%
2–4 May	YouGov/The Times	1,445	41%	19%	20%	9%	6%	4%	1%	1%	21%
1–2 May	Survation/Daily Record	1,024	44%	19%	20%	7%	6%	2%	—	2%	24%
1 May	BBC Scotland debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
23–28 Apr	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,074	44%	22%	19%	6%	4%	3%	2%	<1%	22%
18–25 Apr	Ipsos MORI/STV^{[permanent dead link]}	1,015	45%	17%	19%	10%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%	26%
1–24 Apr	TNS Archived 1 October 2017 at the Wayback Machine	1,035	45%	22%	18%	8%	5%	<1%	1%	<1%	23%
15–20 Apr	Survation/Daily Record	1,005	43%	17%	18%	11%	7%	4%	—	2%	25%
11–15 Apr	BMG Research/Herald	1,012	46%	20%	16%	7%	6%	4%	—	0%	26%
6–15 Apr	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,021	47%	18%	19%	8%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	28%
7–11 Apr	YouGov/The Times	1,012	45%	19%	18%	8%	5%	3%	1%	1%	26%
23 Mar–3 Apr	Survation/Unison Scotland	1,003	44%	19%	16%	10%	7%	4%	—	1%	25%
29 Mar	STV debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
24 Mar	BBC Scotland debate between Coburn, Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
2–22 Mar	TNS	1,013	47%	21%	15%	8%	6%	1%	2%	–	26%
10–17 Mar	Survation/Daily Record	1,051	42%	18%	18%	10%	6%	5%	—	1%	24%
7–9 Mar	YouGov/The Times	1,070	43%	17%	19%	8%	5%	4%	1%	1%	24%
25–29 Feb	Survation/Daily Mail	1,022	43%	19%	14%	9%	7%	6%	–	1%	24%
3–24 Feb	TNS Archived 7 July 2017 at the Wayback Machine	1,036	55%	21%	13%	6%	4%	–	–	–	34%
11–16 Feb	Survation/Daily Record	1,006	45%	18%	15%	9%	6%	6%	–	1%	27%
1–7 Feb	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,000	49%	19%	15%	6%	8%	1%	<1%	2%	30%
1–4 Feb	YouGov/The Times	1,022	42%	20%	20%	6%	5%	3%	2%	1%	22%
6–25 Jan	TNS	1,016	52%	19%	17%	6%	6%	<1%	<1%	1%	33%
8–14 Jan	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,053	48%	19%	17%	5%	7%	2%	1%	1%	29%
8–12 Jan	Survation/Daily Record	1,029	42%	20%	16%	9%	8%	5%	–	<1%	22%

2015

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Green	Lib Dem	UKIP	SSP/ RISE^[2]	Others	Lead
16 Nov-14 Dec	TNS	1,035	54%	20%	12%	9%	4%	1%	<0.5%	0%	34%
9–16 Nov	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,029	46%	19%	16%	7%	8%	1%	<0.5%	1%	27%
16 Oct–4 Nov	TNS	1,034	52%	25%	11%	5%	5%	2%	<0.5%	1%	27%
9–13 Oct	YouGov/The Times	1,110	45%	20%	19%	6%	5%	3%	3%	0%	25%
9–30 Sep	TNS	1,037	52%	23%	11%	5%	6%	3%	0.5%	1%	29%
12 Sep	Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the Labour Party
7–10 Sep	Survation/The Scottish Daily Mail	1,010	42%	21%	13%	11%	6%	5%	0%	1%	21%
7–10 Sep	YouGov/The Times	1,110	45%	20%	18%	6%	4%	3%	3%	1%	25%
12 Aug–1 Sep	TNS	1,023	51%	24%	11%	6%	6%	1%	<0.5%	1%	27%
24–30 Aug	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,002	50%	20%	12%	8%	7%	<0.5%	—	2%	30%
15 Aug	Kezia Dugdale becomes leader of Scottish Labour
10 Jul-3 Aug	TNS	1,029	54%	20%	12%	8%	4%	1%	1%	0%	34%
19 Jun-8 Jul	TNS	1,056	51%	21%	13%	7%	5%	1%	1%	0%	30%
3–7 Jul	Survation/Daily Mail	1,031	45%	19%	12%	11%	8%	5%	—	0%	26%
13–30 May	TNS	1,031	50%	19%	14%	10%	5%	2%	—	0%	31%
16 May	Jim Murphy resigns as leader of Scottish Labour
7 May	2015 United Kingdom general election
29 Apr-1 May	YouGov/The Times	1,162	43%	24%	16%	7%	6%	2%	3%	0%	19%
22–27 Apr	Survation/Daily Record	1,015	44%	21%	11%	10%	6%	5%	—	1%	23%
16–20 Apr	YouGov/The Times	1,111	42%	25%	15%	7%	6%	2%	2%	0%	17%
8–9 Apr	YouGov/The Times	1,056	42%	24%	16%	6%	5%	2%	3%	1%	18%
13–19 Mar	Survation/Daily Record	1,002	42%	26%	14%	5%	6%	6%	—	1%	16%
12–17 Mar	Survation/Daily Record	1,027	39%	23%	15%	11%	5%	6%	—	2%	16%
10–12 Mar	YouGov/The Times	1,001	43%	25%	15%	8%	5%	2%	2%	0%	18%
12–17 Feb	Survation/Daily Record	1,011	39%	22%	12%	13%	7%	7%	<0.5%	1%	17%
29 Jan-2 Feb	YouGov/The Times	1,001	44%	24%	12%	8%	4%	3%	3%	1%	20%
14 Jan-2 Feb	TNS BMRB^{[permanent dead link]}	1,006	44%	26%	13%	9%	6%	0%	1%	1%	18%
12–19 Jan	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,001	48%	22%	11%	10%	5%	2%	1%	1%	26%

2014

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Green	Lib Dem	UKIP	SSP	Others	Lead
15–18 Dec	Survation/Daily Record	1,000	40%	24%	14%	9%	6%	7%	1%	1%	16%
13 Dec	Jim Murphy becomes leader of Scottish Labour
9–11 Dec	YouGov/The Sun	1,081	42%	26%	14%	7%	3%	4%	3%	2%	16%
27 Nov	Release of Smith Commission Report
20 Nov	Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland
16 Nov	Nicola Sturgeon becomes leader of the SNP
6–13 Nov	Survation/Daily Record	1,001	41%	20%	13%	10%	6%	8%	1%	1%	21%
27–30 Oct	YouGov/Times	1,078	38%	26%	12%	10%	4%	6%	3%	1%	12%
22–29 Oct	Ipsos MORI	1,026	50%	23%	8%	10%	6%	1%	1%	1%	27%
24 Oct	Johann Lamont resigns as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, triggering a leadership election
12 Sep – 1 Oct	Panelbase/Scottish National Party	1,049	37%	27%	15%	9%	5%	4%	1%		10%
19 Sep	First Minister Alex Salmond announces his resignation, triggering a leadership election
18 Sep	2014 Scottish independence referendum
15–17 Sep	YouGov/The Sun	3,237	35%	30%	15%	9%	3%	5%	3%	1%	5%
12–16 Sep	Survation/Daily Mail	1,000	37%	26%	13%	9%	7%	7%	0%	1%	11%
9–11 Sep	YouGov/The Times/The Sun	1,268	34%	33%	14%	8%	4%	4%	3%	1%	1%
5–9 Sep	Survation/Daily Record	1,000	38%	27%	15%	9%	5%	6%	0%	1%	11%
2–5 Sep	YouGov/The Sunday Times	1,084	34%	31%	15%	8%	4%	4%	3%	1%	3%
28 Aug – 1 Sep	YouGov/The Times/The Sun	1,063	33%	33%	14%	7%	4%	4%	3%	1%	Tied
12–15 August	YouGov/The Times	1,085	32%	34%	14%	6%	4%	5%	4%	2%	2%
4–7 August	YouGov/The Sun	1,142	31%	35%	15%	8%	5%	4%	3%	1%	4%
4–8 July	Survation/Daily Record	1,013	37%	26%	13%	8%	7%	8%	0%	1%	11%
25–29 June	YouGov/The Times	1,206	29%	35%	14%	8%	5%	6%	2%	1%	6%
12–16 June	YouGov/The Sun	1,039	31%	33%	15%	8%	5%	5%	2%	1%	2%
8–10 June	Survation/Daily Record	1,004	39%	26%	10%	10%	6%	7%	0%	1%	13%
22 June	2014 European Parliament election
9–12 May	Survation/Daily Record	1,003	39%	26%	11%	9%	6%	6%	1%	1%	13%
11–15 Apr	Survation/Sunday Post	1,001	38%	28%	11%	8%	7%	6%	1%	1%	10%
4–7 Apr	Survation/Daily Record	1,002	41%	25%	12%	7%	9%	4%	2%		16%
20–24 Mar	YouGov/The Times	1,072	33%	33%	13%	7%	7%	3%	4%	1%	Tied
6–7 Mar	Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation	1,002	40%	28%	11%	8%	7%	5%	1%	0%	12%
24–28 Feb	YouGov	1,257	33%	35%	14%	5%	4%	6%	3%	1%	2%
17–18 Feb	Survation/Daily Mail	1,005	41%	29%	13%	3%	8%	3%	1%	2%	12%
26 Jan – 6 Feb	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,012	44%	27%	13%	6%	5%	3%	1%		17%
21–27 Jan	YouGov	1,192	34%	33%	14%	7%	6%	0%	3%	3%	1%
23 January	2014 Cowdenbeath by-election

2013

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Green	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
13–20 Dec	Panelbase/Scottish National Party	1,012	40%	31%	14%	5%	5%	5%	9%
24 October	2013 Dunfermline by-election
30 Aug – 5 Sep	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,002	46%	28%	12%	6%	4%	4%	18%
17–24 Jul	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,001	48%	25%	13%	6%	4%	4%	23%
20 June	2013 Aberdeen Donside by-election

2012

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Green	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
9–19 Oct	Panelbase/Sunday Times	972	40%	27%	11%	5%	4%	3%	13%
3 May	2012 Scottish local elections
26 Jan – 1 Feb	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,008	41%	25%	11%	4%	3%	1%	16%

2011

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Green	Others	Lead
5 May	2011 Scottish Parliament election	1,991,051	44.0%	26.3%	12.4%	5.2%	4.4%	7.7%	17.7%

Footnotes

References

[1]
Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 4
[2]
In August 2015, the Scottish Socialist Party announced it would stand as part of an electoral alliance called RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance

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