Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

Opinion polling on Scottish independence

Opinion polling on Scottish independence

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Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns well over 240 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might impact the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.

Polls in the main table, using the same question, still show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.

Graphical summary

Graph Methodology

The graphs include all polls from the main table, excluding those which are noted as using non-standard questions.

The date associated with each poll is the mid-point of the survey period, i.e (start+end)/2.

The centered moving averages are the averages of the last 10 polls, weighted by sample size. The date of the moving average is the weighted average poll date. The value of the moving average is variously the percentage for Yes, No, Undecided and the margin ex-undecideds of those polls.

The margin ex-undecideds value for each poll is calculated as (No-Yes)/(No+Yes).

The final chart is the distribution of a given organisations polls compared to the moving average margin ex-undecideds. The value of the moving average at the poll's date is computed by linear interpolation between adjacent values of the moving average. The difference between that value and the poll's value is shown as a distribution.

Frequently time axis dates may be in the future for long-term graphs. This is done to avoid truncation of datapoints at the edge of the chart area.


Polls using the 2014 referendum question

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Other polling formats

Polls using Remain / Leave Question

Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.

The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Polls on a "de facto" referendum

On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[2] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...
More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey

Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.

Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

  1. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
  2. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
  3. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
  4. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
  5. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.

A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".

More information Year, Polling organisation/client ...

Issues around a second independence referendum

Timing of a second referendum

Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. Lead Notes
In 2023 Next 12 Months Next 2 Years In the next 2–5 years More than 5 Years No Referendum
Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K
8 - 13 Sep 2023 YouGov 1,103 27% 62% 11% 45% 43% 12% [lower-alpha 38]
2 - 4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,100 42% 42% 12% 42% 40% 14%
5 - 6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 41% 40% 15% 44% 39% 13%
1 - 2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,030 41% 40% 12% 41% 38% 14%
26 - 29 Jun 2023 YouGov 1,100 45% 42% 13% [lower-alpha 39]
3 - 5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,466 42% 40% 13% 42% 39% 15%
30 Apr- 2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1295 37% 47% 11% 39% 42% 14%
17-20 Apr 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,032 20% 69% 12% 44% 42% 14%
31 Mar-1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,008 41% 44% 15% 43% 41% 16%
2-5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 34% 49% 18% 37% 44% 20%
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,017 22% 68% 10% 45% 44% 11%
23-26 Jan 2023 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,088 28% 62% 10% 47% 42% 10%
26-27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 46% 43% 11% 46% 40% 14%
18–23 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 27% 60% 13% 21% 68% 11% 46% 41% 13%
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,009 24% 31% 45% 10%
29–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/These Islands 1.029 36% 53% 12% 17%
18-22 Nov 2021 YouGov/Times 1,060 34% 50% 16% 28% 55% 17% 44% 41% 15%
9-12 Nov 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,781 19% 34% 46% 7%
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotsman 1,005 14% 17% 17% 23% 23% 48% [lower-alpha 40]
18 Sep 2021 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 34% 50% 16% 41% 42% 17%
6-10 Sept 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 2,003 17% 36% 47% 6%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,040 38% 52% 9% 14%
4-5 Aug 2021 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 40% 47% 13% 42% 40% 17%
16-24 June 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,287 19% 35% 46% 8%
28-30 April 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,096 22% 33% 45% 10%
30 Mar-1 April 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,009 25% 29% 46% 7%
3-5 March 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,013 25% 30% 45% 10%

Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

UK-wide polling

Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.

Polls using 2014 referendum question

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Polling on a second referendum

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation/client ...

Timing of a Second Independence Referendum

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. No Referendum Lead Notes
In 2023 Next 12 Months Next 2 Years In the next 2–5 years More than 5 Years
Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K
18/6 - 2/7/21 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 3891 18% 27% 55%

British Social Attitudes Survey

More information Year, Polling organisation/client ...

See also

Notes

  1. "Don't know" figure includes those who would not vote and refused to answer.
  2. Yougov advise that this series of polls should not be compared to its usual polling, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45269-nicola-sturgeons-legacy-according-scots
  3. Unusually this poll asked the Indy Q twice in the same poll, of samples of just over 500 each and then merged them together, questions should be borne in mind as to the margin of error for what is essentially 2 smaller polls
  4. "Don't know" figure includes those who would not vote and refused to answer.
  5. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  6. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  7. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  8. Findoutnow stated "This was not a standard indyref voting intention poll so was not adjusted for turnout likelihood. That's why undecideds are up, and others down" https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1668263765937102849
  9. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  10. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  11. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
  12. Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council
  13. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  14. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  15. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
  16. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  17. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  18. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  19. Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded.
  20. The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".
  21. Savanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
  22. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  23. JL Partners was not a member of the British Polling Council at the time of this poll
  24. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  25. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
  26. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  27. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  28. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
  29. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
  30. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  31. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  32. Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  33. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a "de facto" referendum on independence. Which party will you vote for?
  34. Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?"
  35. Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  36. Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? /Which party are you most inclined to support?"
  37. Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?"
  38. The question asked was whether there should be a referendum in 2024
  39. The poll also asked whether there should be a referendum 'Soon after the next general election', to which the response was: Yes 35%, No 52%, Don't Know 13%
  40. Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years
  41. Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?"
  42. Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence?"

References

  1. [1]
    Strategies, Redfield & Wilton (4 April 2023). "Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (31 March - 1 April 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. Retrieved 16 April 2023.
  2. [2]
    https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf
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