Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom's_membership_of_the_European_Union_(2016%E2%80%932020)

Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)

Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)

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Following the referendum in the United Kingdom on its membership of the European Union on 23 June 2016, polling companies continued to use standard questions in order to gauge public opinion on the country's relationship with the EU. Opinion polling overall showed an initial fall in support for Brexit from the referendum to late 2016, when responses were split evenly between support and opposition. Support rose again to a plurality, which held until the 2017 general election. Since then, opinion polls tended to show a plurality of support for remaining in the EU or for the view that Brexit was a mistake, with the estimated margin increasing until a small decrease in 2019 (to 53% Remain : 47% Leave, as of October 2019).[1] This seems to be largely due to a preference for remaining in the EU among those who did not vote in 2016's referendum (an estimated 2.5 million of whom, as of October 2019, were too young to vote at the time).[2][3] Other reasons suggested include slightly more Leave voters than Remain voters (14% and 12% of each, respectively, as of October 2019)[4] changing how they would vote (particularly in Labour areas) and the deaths of older voters,[1] most of whom voted to leave the EU.

Right/wrong

Opinion polling on whether the UK was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU
  Right
  Wrong
  Neither

Following the EU referendum, there have been numerous opinion polls on the question of whether the UK was 'right' or 'wrong' to vote to leave the EU. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.

More information Date(s) conducted, Right ...

Selective polling

More information Date(s) conducted, Right ...

Remain/leave

With "Neither" responses
Normalised
Opinion polling (since the 2016 referendum) on whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU
  Leave
  Remain

There have also been polls to gauge support for remaining in or leaving the EU. The following polls, unless the notes state otherwise, asked how respondents would vote in a second referendum.

More information Date(s) conducted, Remain ...
  1. Question does not explicitly ask how respondents would vote in a referendum.
  2. Question asked in poll: "Regardless of the way you voted in the 2016 referendum, do you support or oppose the UK abiding by the referendum result and leaving the EU?"
  3. Percentages are of registered voters.

Selective polling

More information Date(s) conducted, Remain ...
  1. Options are accepting the UK's proposed withdrawal agreement or remaining in the EU.
  2. Options are leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement on trade and security or remaining in the EU.

Three-option referendum

On 6 July 2018, the UK Cabinet agreed a statement at Chequers that set out a proposal for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union,[34] following which two members of the Cabinet resigned.[35] On 16 July 2018 the former Education Secretary Justine Greening noted the lack of a political consensus behind the Chequers proposal and said that, due to a 'stalemate' in the House of Commons, the issue of Brexit should be referred back to the electorate. She proposed a referendum with three options: to leave the EU on such terms as might be agreed between the UK Government and the EU 27; to leave the EU without agreed terms; or to remain in the EU. Voters would be asked to mark a first and second preference using the supplementary vote system. If there were no majority for any particular option among first-preference votes, the third-placed option would be eliminated and second preferences would be used to determine the winner from the two remaining options.[36]

The following table shows opinion polls that have been conducted on how people would vote in a three-option referendum. The table shows the poll results for a first round in which all three options would be available, and for a second round in which only the top two options in the first round would be available.

More information Date(s) conducted, Round ...
  1. Question was not asked in the context of a referendum.
  2. Deal option is to leave with a withdrawal agreement, not necessarily the proposed one.

Selective polling

More information Date(s) conducted, Round ...
  1. Question was not asked in the context of a referendum.
  2. Deal option is to leave with a withdrawal agreement, not necessarily the proposed one.

Four-option referendum

Some polls have offered respondents a choice between remaining in the EU, leaving the EU but remaining within the European Single Market or EU Customs Union (see notes), accepting the negotiated deal and leaving without a deal.

More information Date(s) conducted, Remain ...
  1. or the Customs Union.

Support for another referendum

There have been opinion polls to gauge support for a second referendum, on whether to accept or reject the final Brexit deal. Polling results vary depending on how the question is phrased: in general a "second referendum" is less popular than a "public vote" or similar descriptor.[44] One YouGov poll conducted in April 2018 for Best for Britain showed much greater support for the public "[having] a final say on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all" than for "a public vote" on the same question.[45]

More information Date(s) conducted, Support ...
  1. Question asked about a second EU referendum, not necessarily on the final deal.
  2. Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or remain in the EU.
  3. Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or leave the EU without a deal.
  4. Referendum on whether to remain in the EU or leave the EU without a deal.
  5. Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or re-open negotiations with a view to getting a better deal.

Selective polling

More information Date(s) conducted, Support ...
  1. Question asked about a second EU referendum, not necessarily on the final deal.

On the UK rejoining the EU

Some polls conducted prior to the UK's formal exit worded the question as whether to rejoin rather than stay in the EU.

More information Date(s) conducted, Join ...

See also


References

  1. Cecil, Nicholas (10 October 2019). "Brexit news latest: Poll of polls says Britain is now against leaving EU as most want to stay". Evening Standard. London Evening Standard. Archived from the original on 16 October 2019. Retrieved 19 October 2019.
  2. Kellner, Peter (10 October 2019). "Everyone says they know what the public think about Brexit – here's the polling data that tells you who's right". The Independent. Archived from the original on 16 October 2019. Retrieved 16 October 2019.
  3. Curtice, John (8 February 2019). "Has There Been a Shift in Support for Brexit?". What UK Thinks. Archived from the original on 16 May 2019. Retrieved 16 May 2019. Until the 2017 general election typically more people said that the decision to leave the EU was right than stated it was wrong. Since then the oppose has been the case ... The reason why the balance of opinion had shifted in favour of Remain, even though very few Leave voters had changed their minds, was because those who had not voted before (in some cases because they had been too young to do so) were now decisively in favour of Remain.
  4. Curtice, John (17 October 2019). "Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit?". BBC News. Archived from the original on 23 October 2019. Retrieved 23 October 2019. On average, during the last month, polls that ask people how they would vote in another referendum suggest that 88% of those who backed Remain would do so again. Among those who voted Leave, 86% have not changed their minds.
  5. "New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration". GOV.UK. Department for Exiting the European Union. 19 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019. The revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were considered and agreed at European Council on 17 October 2019.
  6. "Brexit: Theresa May's deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat". BBC News. 15 January 2019. Retrieved 17 January 2019.
  7. "Tory minister Sam Gyimah resigns in protest at Theresa May's Brexit deal". The Daily Telegraph. 1 December 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  8. "Brexit: Cabinet backs draft agreement". BBC News. 14 November 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  9. "Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream'". BBC News. 9 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
  10. "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  11. "'Hard facts' for both sides in Brexit talks – Theresa May". BBC News. 2 March 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018.
  12. "Brexit: EU leaders agree to move talks to next stage". BBC News. 15 December 2017. Retrieved 16 December 2017.
  13. "Theresa May urges EU to retain trade terms for two years after Brexit". BBC News. 22 September 2017. Retrieved 13 October 2017.
  14. "Brexit negotiations: Barnier rules out 'concessions'". BBC News. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 23 June 2017.
  15. "'No turning back' on Brexit as Article 50 triggered". BBC News. 29 March 2017. Retrieved 29 March 2017.
  16. "Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May". BBC News. 17 January 2017. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  17. "Brexit: Theresa May to trigger Article 50 by end of March". BBC News. 2 October 2016. Retrieved 16 October 2016.
  18. "Theresa May vows to be 'one nation' prime minister". BBC News. 13 July 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  19. "New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration". GOV.UK. Department for Exiting the European Union. 19 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019. The revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were considered and agreed at European Council on 17 October 2019.
  20. "Brexit: Theresa May's deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat". BBC News. 15 January 2019. Retrieved 17 January 2019.
  21. "Tory minister Sam Gyimah resigns in protest at Theresa May's Brexit deal". The Telegraph. 1 December 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  22. "Brexit: Cabinet backs draft agreement". BBC News. 14 November 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  23. "Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream'". BBC News. 9 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
  24. "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  25. "'Hard facts' for both sides in Brexit talks – Theresa May". BBC News. 2 March 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018.
  26. "Brexit: EU leaders agree to move talks to next stage". BBC News. 15 December 2017. Retrieved 16 December 2017.
  27. "Theresa May urges EU to retain trade terms for two years after Brexit". BBC News. 22 September 2017. Retrieved 13 October 2017.
  28. "Brexit negotiations: Barnier rules out 'concessions'". BBC News. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 23 June 2017.
  29. "'No turning back' on Brexit as Article 50 triggered". BBC News. 29 March 2017. Retrieved 29 March 2017.
  30. "Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May". BBC News. 17 January 2017. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  31. "Brexit: Theresa May to trigger Article 50 by end of March". BBC News. 2 October 2016. Retrieved 16 October 2016.
  32. "Theresa May vows to be 'one nation' prime minister". BBC News. 13 July 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  33. "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  34. "Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream'". BBC News. 9 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
  35. "Justine Greening's call for new Brexit referendum rejected by No 10". BBC News. 16 July 2018. Retrieved 19 August 2018.
  36. "New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration". GOV.UK. Department for Exiting the European Union. 19 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019. The revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were considered and agreed at European Council on 17 October 2019.
  37. "Brexit: Theresa May's deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat". BBC News. 15 January 2019. Retrieved 17 January 2019.
  38. "Tory minister Sam Gyimah resigns in protest at Theresa May's Brexit deal". The Telegraph. 1 December 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  39. "Brexit: Cabinet backs draft agreement". BBC News. 14 November 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  40. "Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream'". BBC News. 9 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
  41. "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  42. "YouGov / Best For Britain Survey Results" (PDF). YouGov. YouGov. 4 April 2018. Retrieved 15 April 2019.
  43. "New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration". GOV.UK. Department for Exiting the European Union. 19 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019. The revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were considered and agreed at European Council on 17 October 2019.
  44. "Brexit: Theresa May's deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat". BBC News. 15 January 2019. Retrieved 17 January 2019.
  45. "Tory minister Sam Gyimah resigns in protest at Theresa May's Brexit deal". The Telegraph. 1 December 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  46. "Brexit: Cabinet backs draft agreement". BBC News. 14 November 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
  47. "Meeting of the Parliament 07 November 2018 [Draft]". The Scottish Parliament. 7 November 2018. Retrieved 4 December 2018. providing unequivocal support for a public vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal.
  48. "Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream'". BBC News. 9 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
  49. "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  50. Helm, Toby (12 May 2018). "One million students join calls for vote on Brexit deal". The Observer. Retrieved 10 September 2018.
  51. "'Hard facts' for both sides in Brexit talks - Theresa May". BBC News. 2 March 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018.
  52. "Brexit: EU leaders agree to move talks to next stage". BBC News. 15 December 2017. Retrieved 16 December 2017.
  53. "Theresa May urges EU to retain trade terms for two years after Brexit". BBC News. 22 September 2017. Retrieved 13 October 2017.
  54. "Brexit negotiations: Barnier rules out 'concessions'". BBC News. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 23 June 2017.
  55. "'No turning back' on Brexit as Article 50 triggered". BBC News. 29 March 2017. Retrieved 29 March 2017.
  56. "Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May". BBC News. 17 January 2017. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  57. "Brexit: Theresa May to trigger Article 50 by end of March". BBC News. 2 October 2016. Retrieved 16 October 2016.
  58. "Theresa May vows to be 'one nation' prime minister". BBC News. 13 July 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2017.

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