Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)

Following the referendum in the United Kingdom on its membership of the European Union on 23 June 2016, polling companies continued to use standard questions in order to gauge public opinion on the country's relationship with the EU. Opinion polling overall showed an initial fall in support for Brexit from the referendum to late 2016, when responses were split evenly between support and opposition. Support rose again to a plurality, which held until the 2017 general election. Since then, opinion polls tended to show a plurality of support for remaining in the EU or for the view that Brexit was a mistake, with the estimated margin increasing until a small decrease in 2019 (to 53% Remain : 47% Leave, as of October 2019^[update]).[1] This seems to be largely due to a preference for remaining in the EU among those who did not vote in 2016's referendum (an estimated 2.5 million of whom, as of October 2019^[update], were too young to vote at the time).[2][3] Other reasons suggested include slightly more Leave voters than Remain voters (14% and 12% of each, respectively, as of October 2019^[update])[4] changing how they would vote (particularly in Labour areas) and the deaths of older voters,[1] most of whom voted to leave the EU.

This article needs to be updated. (March 2020)

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Brexit
Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union Glossary of terms
Background Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom United Kingdom opt-outs from EU legislation Campaigns for a referendum People's Pledge Labour for a Referendum Bloomberg speech Project Fear Brexit: The Movie In or Out 2013–14 EU (Referendum) Bill (unsuccessful) 2015–16 EU membership renegotiation 2015 EU Referendum Act (Gibraltar) Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union
2016 referendum Issues Endorsements Opinion polling Results Causes for result International reactions Allegations of unlawful campaigning Immediate aftermath 2016 Conservative Party election 2016 Labour Party election 2016 UKIP election Department for Exiting the EU Department for International Trade Campaigns Leave campaigns Vote Leave (official) Business for Britain Conservatives for Britain Students for Britain BeLeave Leave.EU Bpoplive The Freedom Association Better Off Out Grassroots Out Labour Leave Get Britain Out Bruges Group Campaign for an Independent Britain Remain campaigns Britain Stronger in Europe (official) Labour In for Britain European Movement UK Britain in Europe British Influence Business for New Europe Nucleus
Notice of withdrawal Article 50 process R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017
Negotiations Negotiation positions EU negotiation mandate Chequers agreement Timeline: 2017, 2018, 2019
Withdrawal agreement Brexit divorce bill Irish backstop No-deal Brexit Continuing United Kingdom relationship with the European Union
Parliamentary votes Withdrawal Act 2018 (Gibraltar) Cooper–Letwin Act Benn Act Public Vote Bill (not passed) Terms of Withdrawal Bills (not passed) Scottish EU Continuity Bill (blocked) Withdrawal Agreement Act (Gibraltar) European Union (Future Relationship) Bill
Impact Impact on the Irish border Good Friday Agreement Impact on the EU Economic effects Effects on Gibraltar Scientific cooperation
EU–UK relations United Kingdom–European Union relations Trade deal negotiation between the UK and EU EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) Partnership Council Relations with EU Member States Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Akrotiri and Dhekelia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Ireland-UK Border British–Irish Council North/South Ministerial Council Italy Lithuania Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Spain Status of Gibraltar Gibraltar–Spain Border Sweden Conjectured EEA membership
Opposition in the UK Post-referendum opinion polling New initiatives Change Britain More United Open Britain The New European Unite to Remain Led By Donkeys Revoke Article 50 petition Postcards from the 48% Proposed second Scottish independence referendum Calls for a second referendum People's Vote Britain for Europe European Movement UK For our Future's Sake Healthier IN the EU InFacts Open Britain Our Future Our Choice Scientists for EU Other organisations Best for Britain Bollocks to Brexit Change UK Liberal Democrats Right to Vote
Timeline Bloomberg speech Jan 2013 European Parliament election May 2014 2015 general election May 2015 Renegotiation begins Jun 2015 Referendum Act passed Dec 2015 Renegotiation concluded Feb 2016 Referendum held Jun 2016 Theresa May becomes PM Jul 2016 Article 50 judgement Jan 2017 Notification Act passed Mar 2017 Article 50 invoked Mar 2017 2017 general election Jun 2017 Brexit negotiations begin Jun 2017 Withdrawal Act passed Jun 2018 Chequers plan presented Jul 2018 Withdrawal agreement released Nov 2018 Meaningful votes Jan–Mar 2019 Brexit delayed until 12 April Mar 2019 Cooper–Letwin Act passed Apr 2019 Brexit delayed until 31 October Apr 2019 European Parliament election May 2019 Boris Johnson becomes PM Jul 2019 Prorogation & annulment Aug-Sep 2019 Benn Act passed Sep 2019 Withdrawal agreement revised Oct 2019 Brexit delayed until 31 January Oct 2019 2019 general election Dec 2019 Agreement Act passed Jan 2020 UK leaves the EU Jan 2020 Implementation period begins Jan 2020 UK–EU trade deal agreed Dec 2020 Future Relationship Act passed Dec 2020 Implementation period ends Dec 2020 New EU–UK relationship begins Jan 2021 UK–EU trade deal ratified Apr 2021
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Right/wrong

Following the EU referendum, there have been numerous opinion polls on the question of whether the UK was 'right' or 'wrong' to vote to leave the EU. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.

Selective polling

Remain/leave

With "Neither" responses

Normalised

Opinion polling (since the 2016 referendum) on whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU

  Leave

  Remain

There have also been polls to gauge support for remaining in or leaving the EU. The following polls, unless the notes state otherwise, asked how respondents would vote in a second referendum.

Selective polling

Three-option referendum

On 6 July 2018, the UK Cabinet agreed a statement at Chequers that set out a proposal for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union,[34] following which two members of the Cabinet resigned.[35] On 16 July 2018 the former Education Secretary Justine Greening noted the lack of a political consensus behind the Chequers proposal and said that, due to a 'stalemate' in the House of Commons, the issue of Brexit should be referred back to the electorate. She proposed a referendum with three options: to leave the EU on such terms as might be agreed between the UK Government and the EU 27; to leave the EU without agreed terms; or to remain in the EU. Voters would be asked to mark a first and second preference using the supplementary vote system. If there were no majority for any particular option among first-preference votes, the third-placed option would be eliminated and second preferences would be used to determine the winner from the two remaining options.[36]

The following table shows opinion polls that have been conducted on how people would vote in a three-option referendum. The table shows the poll results for a first round in which all three options would be available, and for a second round in which only the top two options in the first round would be available.

Selective polling

Four-option referendum

Some polls have offered respondents a choice between remaining in the EU, leaving the EU but remaining within the European Single Market or EU Customs Union (see notes), accepting the negotiated deal and leaving without a deal.

Support for a second referendum

There have been opinion polls to gauge support for a second referendum, on whether to accept or reject the final Brexit deal. Polling results vary depending on how the question is phrased: in general a "second referendum" is less popular than a "public vote" or similar descriptor.[44] One YouGov poll conducted in April 2018 for Best for Britain showed much greater support for the public "[having] a final say on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all" than for "a public vote" on the same question.[45]