Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries

Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Statewide public opinion polls conducted relating to the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries, typically using standard statistical methodology, include:

Candidates

The known candidates with national campaigns are John McCain, and Ron Paul, and Withdrawn candidates include Jim Gilmore, Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, John H. Cox, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Alan Keyes and Mitt Romney. Candidates who declined to seek the nomination include George Allen, Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Condoleezza Rice, Mark Sanford, and Rick Santorum. One candidate included in some polls who said nothing either way, and did not enter the race is George Pataki.

On March 4, 2008, John McCain crossed the delegate threshold and became the presumptive nominee of the GOP in the 2008 election. It is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul, the two remaining candidates on the ballot, to meet or exceed the number of McCain's pledged delegates.

Polling

Alabama

Alabama Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[1]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Alaska

Alaska Winner: Mitt Romney

Primary Date
February 5, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Arizona

Arizona Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[2]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Arkansas

Arkansas Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[3]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

California

California Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008

See also[4][5][6]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Colorado

Colorado Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008
See also[7]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Connecticut

Connecticut Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[8][9]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Delaware

Delaware Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

District of Columbia

District of Columbia Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 12, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Florida

Florida Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
January 29, 2008

See also[10][11][12][13][14][15]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Georgia

Georgia Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[13][16]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Idaho

Idaho Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
May 27, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Illinois

Illinois Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[17]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Iowa

Iowa Winner
Mike Huckabee
Caucus Date
January 3, 2008[18]

See also[13][19][20][21]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Kansas

Kansas Winner
Mike Huckabee
Caucus Date
February 9, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Louisiana

Louisiana Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date February 9, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Maine

MaineMaine Winner: Mitt Romney
Caucus Dates: February 1–3, 2008
See also[22]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Maryland

Maryland Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 12, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Massachusetts

Massachusetts Winner
Mitt Romney
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[23]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Michigan

Michigan Winner
Mitt Romney
Primary Date
January 15, 2008


See also[24][25]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Minnesota

Minnesota Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Missouri

Missouri Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[26]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Montana

Montana Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Nevada

Nevada Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
January 19, 2008

See also[27][28][29]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

New Hampshire

New Hampshire Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
January 8, 2008

See also[30][31][32]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

New Jersey

New Jersey Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008


See also[13][33][34][35]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

New Mexico

New Mexico Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
June 3, 2008
See also[36]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

New York

New York Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008


See also[37][38][39]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

North Carolina

North Carolina Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
May 6, 2008
See also[40]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

North Dakota

North Dakota North Dakota Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Ohio

Ohio Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008

See also[13][14][41]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Oklahoma

Oklahoma Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[42]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Oregon

OregonOregon Winner: To Be Determined

Primary Date
May 20, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
Tuesday, April 22, 2008


See also[13][14][43][44][45]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008
See also[46]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

South Carolina

South Carolina Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
January 19, 2008

See also[47][48][49]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Tennessee

Tennessee Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Texas

Texas Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008
See also[50]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Utah

Utah Winner
Mitt Romney
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also[51]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Vermont

Vermont Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008
See also[52]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Virginia

Virginia Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 12, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Washington

Washington Winner
John McCain
Caucus Date
February 9, 2008

See also[13]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

West Virginia

West Virginia Winner
Mike Huckabee
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008
Primary Date
May 13, 2008
See also[53]
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Wisconsin

Wisconsin Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 19, 2008

See also[13]

More information Poll Source, Date ...

Wyoming

Wyoming Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
January 5, 2008
More information Poll Source, Date ...

Notes

  • Strategic Vision is suspected of forging results.[54]

Summary

Sources: National Association of Secretaries of State
Using RCP averages when available

State Delegates Date of primary or caucus Date of most recent poll Leader Leader % has a … … lead over Runner up Runner up %
Iowa 40 2008-01-03 2008-01-03 Mike Huckabee 34.4% 9.2% win Mitt Romney 25.2%
Wyoming 14 2008-01-05 2008-01-05 Mitt Romney 66.7% 41.7% win Fred Thompson 25%
New Hampshire 12 2008-01-08 2008-01-08 John McCain 37.1% 5.5% win Mitt Romney 31.6%
Michigan† 30 2008-01-15 2008-01-15 Mitt Romney 38.9% 9.2% win John McCain 29.7%
Nevada 34 2008-01-19 2008-01-19 Mitt Romney 51.1% 37.4% win Ron Paul 13.7%
South Carolina 24 2008-01-19 2008-01-19 John McCain 33.2% 3.3% win Mike Huckabee 29.9%
Florida 57 2008-01-29 2008-01-29 John McCain 36% 4.9% win Mitt Romney 31.1%
Maine† 21 2008-02-01 2008-02-01 Mitt Romney 52% 30.9% win John McCain 21.1%
Alabama 48 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mike Huckabee 40.7% 3.5% win John McCain 37.2%
Alaska 29 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mitt Romney 44.1% 22.2% win Mike Huckabee 21.9%
Arizona 53 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 47.4% 13.3% win Mitt Romney 34.1%
Arkansas 34 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mike Huckabee 60.3% 39.9% win John McCain 20.4%
California 173 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 41.9% 7.8% win Mitt Romney 34.1%
Colorado 46 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mitt Romney 59.4% 40.4% win John McCain 19%
Connecticut 30 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 52.1% 19.1% win Mitt Romney 33%
Delaware 18 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 45% 12.5% win Mitt Romney 32.5%
Georgia 72 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mike Huckabee 34.0% 2.4% win John McCain 31.6%
Illinois 70 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 47.4% 18.7% win Mitt Romney 28.7%
Massachusetts 43 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mitt Romney 51.3% 10.3% win John McCain 41%
Minnesota 41 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mitt Romney 41.4% 19.4% win John McCain 22%
Missouri 58 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 33% 1.5% win Mike Huckabee 31.5%
Montana 25 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mitt Romney 38.3% 13.8% win Ron Paul 24.5%
New Jersey 52 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 55.4% 27% win Mitt Romney 28.4%
New York 101 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 51.2% 23.4% win Mitt Romney 27.8%
North Dakota 26 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mitt Romney 35.7% 13% win John McCain 22.7%
Oklahoma 41 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 John McCain 36.8% 3.7% win Mike Huckabee 33.1%
Tennessee 55 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mike Huckabee 34.5% 2.7% win John McCain 31.8%
Utah 36 2008-02-05 2008-02-05 Mitt Romney 89.6% 84.2% win John McCain 5.4%
West Virginia 30 2008-02-05

& 2008-05-13

2008-02-05 Mike Huckabee 51.5% 4.1% win Mitt Romney 47.4%
Kansas 39 2008-02-09 2008-02-09 Mike Huckabee 59.6% 36.1% win John McCain 23.5%
Louisiana 47 2008-02-09 2008-02-09 Mike Huckabee 43.2% 1.3% win John McCain 41.9%
Washington 40 2008-02-09

& 2008-02-19

2008-02-09 John McCain 25.7% 1.8% win Mike Huckabee 23.9%
District of Columbia 19 2008-02-12 2008-02-12 John McCain 67.7% 51.1% win Mike Huckabee 16.6%
Maryland 37 2008-02-12 2008-02-12 John McCain 55.1% 26% strong Mike Huckabee 29.1%
Virginia 63 2008-02-12 2008-02-12 John McCain 50% 9.2% win Mike Huckabee 40.8%
Wisconsin 40 2008-02-19 2008-02-14 John McCain 48% 16% strong Mike Huckabee 32%
Ohio 88 2008-03-04 2008-02-11 John McCain 50% 14% strong Mike Huckabee 36%
Rhode Island 20 2008-03-04 2006-05-02 John McCain 50% 36% strong Mitt Romney 14%
Texas 140 2008-03-04 2008-02-14 John McCain 45% 8% strong Mike Huckabee 37%
Vermont† 17 2008-03-04 2007-02-06 John McCain 30% 1% weak Rudy Giuliani 29%
Pennsylvania 74 2008-04-22 2008-01-14 John McCain 30% 16% strong Rudy Giuliani 14%
North Carolina 69 2008-05-06 2008-02-11 John McCain 45% 5% weak Mike Huckabee 40%
Oregon† 30 2008-05-20 2008-01-29 John McCain 30% 9% weak Mitt Romney 21%
Idaho 32 2008-05-27 2007-07-13 Mitt Romney 38% 18% strong Rudy Giuliani 20%
New Mexico 32 2008-06-03 2007-04-07 Rudy Giuliani 34% 11% strong John McCain 23%

Current leaders

The race for the Republican nomination is decided upon how many delegates a candidate receives. In this section we see how many pledged delegates each candidate has received to date ranking from first place (the most delegates) to sixth place (the least delegates). To be nominated, a candidate must win an absolute majority of delegates, or 1,191 delegates.

₩- Means the candidate has won that particular state

  • According to local news reports, three of Mike Huckabee's delegates from West Virginia were promised to Ron Paul in exchange for support for Huckabee from Paul's caucus supporters in West Virginia.[55]

All information comes from[56]

Predicted results

The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of convention delegates awarded to each state. A simple majority of delegate votes (1,191 out of 2,381) is needed to secure the nomination.

The number of convention delegates in Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida have been cut in half due to scheduling their primary earlier than February 5. Source

Notes
  • "†" indicates a lead within the margin of error or a tie.
  • "╬" indicates a state where the top candidate has withdrawn from the race since the latest poll was conducted, thus the next most-supported active candidate is granted that state's delegates.
  • "₩" indicates a state where the primary/caucus has been conducted and a winner has been declared.
  • "§" indicates a state where the latest poll was conducted before January 1, 2008

See also


References

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  2. "Arizona Republican Presidential Preference". Americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved September 5, 2008.
  3. "Arkansas Republican Presidential Preference". Americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved September 5, 2008.
  4. "RealClearPolitics – Election 2008 – California Republican Primary". Realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved September 5, 2008.
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  6. "California Republican Presidential Preference". Archived from the original on October 12, 2007. Retrieved October 14, 2007.
  7. "Colorado Republican Presidential Preference". Americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved September 5, 2008.
  8. "Connecticut Republican Presidential Preference". Archived from the original on October 12, 2007. Retrieved October 14, 2007.
  9. "Connecticut (CT) Polls – Quinnipiac University". Quinnipiac.edu. Archived from the original on September 17, 2008. Retrieved September 5, 2008.
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  13. "Strategic Vision Political". Strategicvision.biz. Archived from the original on September 19, 2008. Retrieved September 5, 2008.
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  18. Iowa GOP sets Jan. 3 caucus The Hill.com October 16, 2007. Retrieved October 17, 2007
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  21. Archived December 23, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
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  32. Archived December 17, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
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  50. "Texas Republican Presidential Preference". Archived from the original on October 12, 2007. Retrieved October 14, 2007.
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  54. Blumenthal, Mark (September 25, 2009). "Strategic Vision: A Bigger Story?". Pollster.com. National Journal. Retrieved October 6, 2009.
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