Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

Research done to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election


Statewide polls for the 2016 United States presidential election include the following. The polls listed here provide early data on opinion polling between the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, the Libertarian candidate, and the Green candidate. Prior to the parties' conventions, presumptive candidates were included in the polls. State polling is not conducted in all states for the election due to various factors. More polls usually are conducted in states that are considered swing states as more attention is given to the results. For determining a statistical tie, the margin of error provided by the polling source is applied to the result for each candidate.

Quick Facts Leading presidential 2016 candidate by electoral vote count. States in gray have no polling data. Polls from lightly shaded states are older than September 1, 2016. This map only represents the most recent statewide polling data; it is not a prediction for the 2016 election. ...

Most recent polling

Immediately before the election, Hillary Clinton had a vote lead among states recently polled. State polls with results outside the margin of error showed 213 potential electoral votes for Clinton and 162 potential electoral votes for Donald Trump. In 14 states and two congressional districts (150 electoral votes), results for Clinton and Trump were within the margin of error. For the two states and one district without recent polling, one state (6 electoral votes) voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 election, while one state and district (7 electoral votes) voted for Barack Obama. Third party candidates, such as Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, were also included in many statewide polls. They have not received support in statewide polling that surpasses the two main party nominees. Independent candidate Evan McMullin was tied with Donald Trump in the state of Utah, but he has only been included on a very limited number of statewide polls.

More information State, Date ...

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 60%–39%
(Republican in 2012) 61%–38%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 62%–34%

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 59%–38%
(Republican in 2012) 55%–41%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 51%-37%

Two-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%
(Republican in 2012) 53%–44%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 48%-45%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Three-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2012) 61%–37%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 61%-34%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%
(Democratic in 2012) 60%–37%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 62%-32%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

9 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2012) 51%–46%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 48%-43%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Three-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Five-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%
(Democratic in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 55%-41%

Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2012) 59%–40%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 53%-42%

Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 92%–7%
(Democratic in 2012) 91%–7%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 91%-4%

No polling was conducted post August 1, 2016

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2012) 50%–49%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 49%-48%

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%
(Republican in 2012) 53%–45%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 51%-46%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Three-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 72%–27%
(Democratic in 2012) 71%–28%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 62%-30%

No polling was conducted in 2016

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 61%–36%
(Republican in 2012) 64%–32%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 59%-28%

Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 56%-39%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%
(Republican in 2012) 54%–44%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 57%-38%

Three-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

6 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2012) 52%–46%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 51%-42%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Five-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 56%–42%
(Republican in 2012) 60%–38%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 57%-36%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 57%–41%
(Republican in 2012) 60%–38%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 63%-33%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Five-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 59%–40%
(Republican in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 58%-38%

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

4 electoral votes (Statewide vote worth 2 EVs; 1st and 2nd congressional districts worth 1 EV each)
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2012) 56%–41%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 48%-45%

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%
(Democratic in 2012) 62%–36%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 60%-34%

Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%
(Democratic in 2012) 61%–38%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 60%-33%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%
(Democratic in 2012) 54%–45%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 48%-47%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Three-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2012) 53%–45%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 46%–45%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Five-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2012) 55%–44%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 58%-40%

No polling conducted post September 1, 2016

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 49.4%–49.2%
(Republican in 2012) 53%–44%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 57%-38%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%
(Republican in 2012) 55%–42%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 56%-36%

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

5 electoral votes (Statewide vote worth 2 EVs; 1st, 2nd, and 3rd congressional districts worth 1 EV each)
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%
(Republican in 2012) 60%–38%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 59%-34%

Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

6 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%
(Democratic in 2012) 52%–46%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 48%-46%

Two-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Five-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2012) 52%–46%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 48%-47%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Five-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%
(Democratic in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 55%-41%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

5 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%
(Democratic in 2012) 53%–43%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 48%-40%

Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%
(Democratic in 2012) 63%–35%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 59%-37%

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

15 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%
(Republican in 2012) 50%–48%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 50%-46%

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%
(Republican in 2012) 58%–39%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 63%-27%

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

18 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2012) 51%–48%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 52%-44%

Two-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Five-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 66%–34%
(Republican in 2012) 67%–33%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 65%-29%

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%
(Democratic in 2012) 54%–42%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 50%-39%

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2012) 52%–47%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 48%-47%

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–35%
(Democratic in 2012) 63%–35%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 54%-39%

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2012) 55%–44%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 55%-41%

Three-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%
(Republican in 2012) 58%–40%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 62%-32%

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%
(Republican in 2012) 59%–39%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 61%-35%

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2012) 57%–41%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 52%-43%

Two-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%
(Republican in 2012) 73%–25%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 46%-28%

Four-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Five-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Six-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%
(Democratic in 2012) 67%–31%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 56%-30%

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

13 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2012) 51%–47%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 50%-44%

Two-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Five-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%
(Democratic in 2012) 56%–41%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 54%-38%

Two-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2012) 62%–36%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 69%-26%

Two-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...
Three-way race
More information Poll source, Date administered ...

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%
(Democratic in 2012) 53%–46%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 47%-46%

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Three-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 65%–33%
(Republican in 2012) 69%–28%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 67%-22%

Four-way race

More information Poll source, Date administered ...

See also

General election polling
Democratic primary polling
Republican primary polling
Older polling

Notes

    1. These results reflect only polls done on or after September 1, 2016.

    References

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