Sub-national opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election


Polling was conducted separately in the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, England had 533, Scotland had 59, Wales had 40 and Northern Ireland had 18.

England


Graph of opinion polls conducted
Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015General Election results41.0%31.6%8.2%14.1%4.2%0.9%9.4%
6 May 2015Survation[1]91940%32%11%11%5%2%8%
5–6 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News86638%36%9%12%4%1%2%
5–6 May 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]2,59335%33%10%13%7%2%2%
4–6 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror3,56634%32%10%17%5%2%2%
3–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian[3][n 1]1,72737%37%8%13%4%1%Tie
3–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian[3][n 2]1,33038%37%8%12%3%1%1%
4–5 May 2015Opinium2,49337%35%8%12%7%1%2%
4–5 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,27635%34%9%17%4%1%1%
3–5 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News88038%34%8%15%4%1%4%
3–5 May 2015BMG/May2015.com, New Statesman88737%34%10%14%4%1%3%
1–3 May 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85835%32%10%13%7%4%3%
1–2 May 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday1,85234%35%8%19%4%1%1%
30 Apr–1 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror97836%34%10%17%4%<0.5%2%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
28–30 Apr 2015ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror86835%34%8%14%8%2%1%
28–30 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,65837%34%7%14%6%<0.5%3%
27–28 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail87236%36%8%12%6%2%Tie
25–27 Apr 2015BMG/May2015.com87739%31%11%15%4%<0.5%8%
24–26 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]87037%32%9%12%8%1%5%
24–26 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]86339%32%7%15%6%<0.5%7%
24–25 Apr 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday87936%31%9%20%4%<0.5%5%
21–24 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,66836%33%9%15%7%1%3%
22–23 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,07236%29%10%20%5%<0.5%7%
21–22 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail89039%34%8%11%5%3%5%
17–19 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86336%33%9%14%5%2%3%
17–19 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]86338%35%9%12%5%1%3%
16–17 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,65538%32%9%14%6%1%6%
16–17 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror98635%34%8%18%3%1%1%
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12–15 Apr 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard60035%37%8%11%8%1%2%
10–12 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]87034%36%9%14%6%1%2%
10–12 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]90041%35%7%8%8%1%6%
8–9 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,62639%35%8%12%6%1%4%
8–9 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror83833%36%9%16%5%1%3%
7–8 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail71836%35%11%13%4%1%1%
2–3 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85634%33%9%21%3%<0.5%1%
2–3 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,71035%34%7%15%7%1%1%
2 Apr 2015Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
28–29 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail86438%32%9%13%6%2%6%
27–29 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86540%34%7%11%7%1%6%
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
24–25 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,69035%34%9%13%7%<0.5%1%
24–25 Mar 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85134%34%8%20%4%<0.5%Tie
20–22 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail86438%35%8%11%7%1%3%
20–22 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86036%33%8%14%6%2%3%
20–21 Mar 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday86131%35%10%19%3%1%4%
18–19 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,70237%33%7%14%7%1%4%
13–15 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86334%29%8%18%9%3%5%
13–15 Mar 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]91038%37%6%11%5%3%1%
10–12 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,65435%35%7%15%7%<0.5%Tie
8–11 Mar 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard86334%37%8%14%6%1%3%
6–8 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85936%31%5%18%9%1%5%
3–6 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,62636%33%7%15%7%3%3%
27 Feb–1 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86036%32%8%14%7%2%4%
24–26 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,67935%36%7%14%6%1%1%
23 Feb 2015Survation/Daily Mirror92130%34%10%21%3%2%4%
20–23 Feb 2015ComRes/Daily Mail86536%32%7%14%9%2%4%
20–22 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86732%38%6%13%8%2%6%
17–20 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,70436%33%7%16%7%1%3%
13–15 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86331%31%9%18%9%3%Tie
13–15 Feb 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]86038%34%7%10%8%2%4%
10–12 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,71335%35%8%15%5%1%Tie
8–10 Feb 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84438%37%7%10%8%0%1%
6–8 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]86036%31%9%16%7%1%5%
3–6 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,94733%35%7%15%8%2%2%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85734%30%8%17%10%1%4%
25 Jan 2015Survation/Daily Mirror89034%30%7%25%4%<0.5%4%
23–25 Jan 2015ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link]85233%29%9%20%8%1%4%
22–25 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85933%34%5%17%9%2%1%
16–19 Jan 2015ICM/The Guardian[3]86332%35%8%14%10%1%3%
16–18 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]87131%27%9%17%12%4%4%
11–13 Jan 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard85435%35%8%12%8%2%Tie
9–11 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[2]85837%29%7%17%8%2%8%
12–16 Dec 2014ICM/The Guardian[3]86131%33%11%17%5%3%2%
13–15 Dec 2014Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84036%31%9%14%10%0%5%
12–14 Dec 2014ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link]89729%34%12%17%6%2%5%
5–7 Dec 2014Lord Ashcroft[2]86031%31%7%23%6%2%Tie
6 May 2010General Election Results39.6%28.1%24.2%3.5%1.0%3.6%11.5%

Scotland


Graph of opinion polls conducted


Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election results 50.0% 24.3% 14.9% 7.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 25.7%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/The Sun, The Times 1,351 48% 28% 14% 7% 1% 1% 1% 20%
3–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,660 46% 26% 16% 7% 2% 3% 1% 20%
1–6 May 2015 Panelbase/Wings over Scotland 1,013 48% 26% 14% 5% 3% 2% 2% 22%
3 May 2015The Leaders' Debate featuring Ruth Davidson, Jim Murphy, Willie Rennie and Nicola Sturgeon broadcast on BBC One Scotland and BBC News
29 Apr–1 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,162 49% 26% 15% 7% 2% 1% 0% 23%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon programme also shown
22–27 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,071 54% 20% 17% 5% 1% 2% 1% 34%
22–27 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,015 51% 26% 14% 5% 2% 1% <0.5% 25%
20–23 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,044 48% 27% 16% 4% 3% 2% <0.5% 21%
16–20 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,111 49% 25% 17% 5% 3% 1% 0% 24%
1–19 Apr 2015 TNS 1,003 54% 22% 13% 6% 2% 2% 0% 32%
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12 Apr 2015Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland, for Sunday Politics Scotland
8–9 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,056 49% 25% 18% 4% 2% 1% 1% 24%
8 Apr 2015Six-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland
18 Mar–8 Apr 2015 TNS 978 52% 24% 13% 6% <0.5% 3% 0% 28%
7 Apr 2015Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on STV
2 Apr 2015Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar–2 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,006 45% 29% 14% 4% 4% 2% <0.5% 16%
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/Scottish Sun 1,864 46% 29% 16% 3% 2% 2% <0.5% 17%
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
13–19 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian 1,002 43% 27% 14% 6% 7% 3% 1% 16%
12–17 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,027 47% 26% 16% 4% 4% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 March 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,049 46% 27% 18% 4% 2% 3% 1% 19%
6–10 Mar 2015 Survation/Unison Scotland 1,005 47% 28% 15% 4% 3% 2% 1% 19%
30 Jan–22 Feb 2015 TNS 1,001 46% 30% 14% 3% 3% 4% 1% 16%
12–17 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 45% 28% 15% 5% 3% 3% 1% 17%
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,001 48% 27% 15% 4% 4% 3% 1% 21%
14 Jan–2 Feb 2015 TNS 1,006 41% 31% 16% 4% 2% 6% 1% 10%
12–19 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 774 52% 24% 12% 4% 1% 4% 3% 28%
12–16 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,006 46% 26% 14% 7% 4% 3% 1% 20%
9–14 Jan 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,007 41% 31% 14% 3% 7% 3% 10%
16–18 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian 1,004 43% 26% 13% 6% 7% 4% 1% 17%
15–18 Dec 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 48% 24% 16% 5% 4% 1% 1% 24%
13 Dec 2014Jim Murphy becomes Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
9–11 Dec 2014 YouGov/The Sun 1,081 47% 27% 16% 3% 3% 3% 1% 20%
27 NovRelease of Smith Commission Report
20 NovNicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland
6–13 Nov 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 46% 24% 17% 6% 5% 2% 1% 22%
30 Oct–4 Nov 2014 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,000 45% 28% 15% 3% 7% 1% 1% 17%
27–30 Oct 2014 YouGov/The Times 1,078 43% 27% 15% 4% 6% 4% 1% 16%
22–29 Oct 2014 Ipsos Mori/STV 769 52% 23% 10% 6% 2% 6% 1% 29%
24 Oct 2014Johann Lamont resigns as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
29 Sep–1 Oct 2014 Panelbase/SNP 1,049 34% 32% 18% 5% 6% 5% 2%
19 Sep 2014 Scottish independence referendum
4–8 Jul 2014 Survation/Daily Record 786 38% 33% 17% 5% 5% 2% <1% 5%
25–26 Jun 2014 YouGov Unknown 31% 39% 16% 5% 10% 8%
6–10 Jun 2014 Survation/Daily Record 773 40% 32% 15% 5% 6% 1% 1% 8%
22 MayEuropean Parliament Elections, 2014
11–15 Apr 2014 Survation/Sunday Post 808 36% 36% 16% 6% 3% 1% 1% Tie
4–7 Apr 2014 Survation/Daily Record 803 40% 34% 15% 6% 3% 1% 1% 6%
6–7 Mar 2014 Survation/Daily Record 850 38% 36% 15% 5% 3% 1% 1% 2%
17–18 Feb 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 805 38% 33% 17% 6% 4% 2% 1% 5%
29–31 Jan 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 776 30% 39% 16% 6% 4% 2% 1% 9%
4–8 Oct 2013 Lord Ashcroft 737 31% 40% 18% 6% 2% 2% 1% 9%
22 Feb–9 May 2013 Lord Ashcroft 6,659 23% 45% 16% 8% 5% 2% <1% 22%
17–28 Oct 2012 Lord Ashcroft 703 39% 33% 17% 6% 7% 6%
17–20 Jul 2012 YouGov/Fabian Society 1,029 29% 43% 16% 8% 3% 3% 1% 14%
18–21 May 2012 YouGov Unknown 35% 40% 14% 5% 6% 5%
3 May 2012 Scottish Local Elections, 2012
22–24 Feb 2012 YouGov 1,053 30% 42% 17% 7% 4% 12%
5 May 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, 2011
26–29 Apr 2011 YouGov/Scotsman 1,108 28% 42% 17% 7% 1% 2% 2% 14%
19–21 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 30% 43% 15% 7% 5% 13%
13–15 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 28% 43% 16% 9% 5% 15%
25–28 Mar 2011 YouGov Unknown 26% 46% 17% 6% 5% 20%
18–20 Oct 2010 YouGov Unknown 26% 44% 18% 7% 5% 18%
31 Aug–3 Sep 2010 YouGov Unknown 29% 39% 16% 11% 5% 10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 19.9% 42.0% 16.7% 18.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 22.1%

Wales


Graph of opinion polls conducted
Date(s)

conducted

Polling organisation/client Sample size Plaid Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election results 12.1% 36.9% 27.2% 6.5% 13.6% 2.6% 1.0% 9.7%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 13% 39% 25% 8% 12% 2% 2% 14%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
28–30 April 2015 YouGov/Plaid Cymru 1,146 13% 39% 26% 6% 12% 3% 2% 13%
22 Apr 2015Six-way Wales Election Debate held on ITV
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
13–15 April 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales, Cardiff University 1,143 12% 40% 26% 6% 13% 4% <0.5% 14%
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 9% 40% 27% 6% 13% 5% 1% 13%
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 11% 40% 25% 5% 14% 5% 1% 15%
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 10% 39% 25% 5% 14% 6% 1% 14%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 10% 37% 23% 6% 16% 8% 1% 14%
8–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 12% 38% 21% 7% 13% 6% 2% 17%
2–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 11% 36% 23% 5% 18% 5% 2% 13%
19–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 13% 39% 23% 5% 16% 2% 1% 16%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 11% 38% 23% 6% 17% 5% 1% 15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 11% 41% 25% 5% 14% 3% 2% 16%
22 May 2014European Parliament Elections, 2014
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 11% 43% 22% 7% 13% 3% 2% 21%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/Cardiff University 1,027 11% 45% 24% 7% 10% 1% 2% 21%
21-24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 15% 45% 24% 6% 8% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 11% 47% 22% 7% 9% 2% 2% 25%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 12% 46% 21% 8% 10% 2% 2% 25%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 9% 48% 23% 8% 8% 2% 2% 25%
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 10% 51% 22% 9% 7% 1% 1% 29%
2–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 10% 54% 23% 4% 9% 31%
3 May 2012Welsh Local Elections, 2012
12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 12% 50% 23% 7% 9% 27%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 11% 50% 25% 6% 5% 3% 2% 25%
5 May 2011Welsh Assembly Election, 2011
2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 10% 50% 24% 8% 4% 2% 2% 25%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 11.3% 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10%

Northern Ireland


Date(s)

conducted

Polling organisation/client Sample size DUP SF SDLP UUP Alliance Others
7 May 2015 General Election Results (NI only) 25.7% 24.5% 13.9% 16.0% 8.6% 10.3%
11–24 Sep 2014 LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph 1,089 26% 24% 15% 12% 6% 17%
7 Mar 2013 2013 Mid Ulster by-election.
30 Sep 2013–28 Dec 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[4] 1,280 22% 20% 23% 16% 14% 5%
1 Oct 2012–10 Jan 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[5] 1,204 27% 19% 21% 16% 13% 3%
9 Jun 2011 2011 Belfast West by-election.
01 Oct 2010–18 Dec 2010 Northern Ireland Life & Times[5] 1,205 24% 15% 23% 21% 13% 4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results (NI only) 25% 26% 16% 15% 6% 12%

London


Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
29 April–1 May 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,31333%46%8%9%3%1%13%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
20–22 April 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,03232%44%10%8%5%1%12%
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
26–30 Mar 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,06434%45%8%8%4%1%11%
20–26 Mar 2015ICM/The Guardian1,00332%42%9%7%8%1%10%
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
20–24 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News1,00432%46%9%8%4%1%14%
27 Feb–2 Mar 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,01132%44%10%7%5%<0.5%12%
19–23 Feb 2015YouGov/The Times1,09634%42%9%8%6%<0.5%8%
19–21 Jan 2015YouGov/Evening Standard1,03432%42%10%7%8%<0.5%10%
15–18 Dec 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,38533%41%9%9%6%<0.5%8%
8–13 Aug 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,20034%41%9%10%3%<0.5%7%
21–24 Jul 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,35035%45%8%8%4%<0.5%10%
17–19 Jun 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,11535%42%10%8%4%<0.5%7%
6–8 May 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,42231%44%10%11%2%<0.5%13%
29 Apr 2014Survation77426%42%15%12%2%<0.5%16%
7–9 Apr 2014YouGov/Evening Standard1,20934%42%11%9%3%<0.5%8%
8–10 Oct 2013YouGov/Evening Standard1,23132%45%9%10%2%2%13%
20–25 Jun 2013YouGov/Evening Standard1,26929%48%10%9%2%3%19%
24–30 Apr 2012Opinium73633%43%6%10%7%2%10%
27–29 Apr 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,23131%47%8%9%3%2%16%
20–22 Apr 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,13831%50%6%8%3%2%19%
13–15 Apr 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,06033%50%6%7%2%2%17%
12–15 March 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,22634%46%5%9%3%2%12%
7–10 Feb 2012YouGov/Evening Standard1,10635%47%5%9%2%2%12%
10–16 Jan 2012YouGov1,34934%44%5%8%3%2%10%
7–9 Jun 2011YouGov1,21532%51%3%8%3%2%19%
5–8 Oct 2010YouGov1,27138%42%2%13%3%2%4%
6 May 2010General Election Results34.5%36.6%1.7%22.1%1.6%3.5%2.1%

See also


Notes


  1. Final General Election 2015 prediction poll published 7 May 2015 with an additional 463 respondents added to the data published the previous day
  2. Preliminary prediction poll published 6 May 2015

References


  1. Lyons Lowe, Damian (8 May 2015). "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory". Survation. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  2. Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers.
  3. ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  4. The question asked was "Which of these political parties do you feel closest to?", not a voting intention question.
  5. "NI Life and Times Survey - 2012 : POLPART2". Retrieved 3 January 2015.