United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2010
2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
State elections
The 2010 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives. Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected were to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011 until January 3, 2013.
Quick Facts All 8 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives, Turnout ...
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The state's 2009-2010 delegation consisted of five Democrats and three Republicans. With the exception of Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had won the open seat in District 1 during the previous election, all members of the delegation were incumbents who had served for at least a full term in Congress. Also, with the exception of retiring Republican John Shadegg of District 3, all incumbent members of the state's delegation ran for re-election.
As of August 17, 2010, Districts 1, 5 and 8, all held by Democrats, were considered to be competitive by both CQ Politics and The Cook Political Report.[1][2] The primary elections for Congressional races were held on August 24, 2010.[3][4]
The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arizona. In addition, the voter turnout and the number of votes not valid will be listed below.[5]
Statewide
More information Party, Candidates ...
| Party | Candidates | Votes | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
| Republican | 8 | 900,510 | 53.03 | 5 |  2 |
62.50 | |
| Democratic | 8 | 711,837 | 41.92 | 3 |  2 |
37.50 | |
| Libertarian | 8 | 72,216 | 4.25 | 0 |  |
0.0 | |
| Green | 3 | 9,066 | 0.53 | 0 | |
0.0 | |
| Independent | 1 | 4,506 | 0.27 | 0 | |
0.0 | |
| Total | 28 | 1,698,135 | 100.0 | 8 | |
100.0 | |
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More information Popular vote ...
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More information House seats ...
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By district
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[6]
More information District, Republican ...
| District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 112,816 | 49.72% | 99,233 | 43.73% | 14,869 | 6.55% | 226,918 | 100.0% | Republican gain |
| District 2 | 173,173 | 64.88% | 82,891 | 31.06% | 10,830 | 4.06% | 266,894 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 3 | 108,689 | 52.24% | 85,610 | 41.14% | 13,772 | 6.62% | 208,071 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 4 | 25,300 | 27.53% | 61,524 | 66.94% | 5,083 | 5.53% | 91,907 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 5 | 110,374 | 52.00% | 91,749 | 43.23% | 10,127 | 4.77% | 212,250 | 100.0% | Republican gain |
| District 6 | 165,649 | 66.42% | 72,615 | 29.12% | 11,119 | 4.46% | 249,383 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 7 | 70,385 | 44.23% | 79,935 | 50.23% | 8,824 | 5.54% | 159,144 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 8 | 134,124 | 47.30% | 138,280 | 48.76% | 11,174 | 3.94% | 283,578 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| Total | 900,510 | 53.03% | 711,837 | 41.92% | 85,798 | 5.05% | 1,698,145 | 100.0% | |
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Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...
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County results Kirkpatrick: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Gosar: 40–50% 50-60% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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See also: Arizona's 1st congressional district
Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was elected with 55.9% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+6.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ann Kirkpatrick, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent) | 46,902 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 46,902 | 100.0 | ||
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Republican primary
The Republican primary featured 8 candidates seeking to take on Kirkpatrick in the general election. Mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay, who had been the Republican nominee to run against Kirkpatrick in 2008, finished second in the primary behind dentist Paul Gosar. Other unsuccessful Republican candidates included attorney Bradley Beauchamp and former state legislator Russell Bowers.
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Bradley Beauchamp, attorney
- Russell Bowers, former state senator
- Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist, nominee for this seat in 2008 and candidate in 2002
- Joe Jaraczewski, former real estate development company owner[8]
- Jon Jensen, former Greeley County School Superintendent[9]
- Steve Mehta, cardiologist
- Thomas J. Zaleski, President at Thoma Capital Management LLC
Withdrawn
- Paul Burton[10]
Endorsements
Paul Gosar
- Statewide officials
- Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
- Local officials
- Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County
- Paul Babeu, Sheriff of Pinal County
Steve Mehta
- Newspapers
Results
Gosar, a political neophyte, buoyed by endorsements from highly visible Republican politicians, including Sarah Palin, won the primary with just under 31% of the vote.[11]
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Paul Gosar | 21,941 | 30.7 | |
| Republican | Sydney Hay | 16,328 | 22.9 | |
| Republican | Bradley Beauchamp | 11,356 | 15.9 | |
| Republican | Russell Bowers | 10,552 | 14.8 | |
| Republican | Steve Mehta | 5,846 | 8.2 | |
| Republican | Thomas J. Zaleski | 2,105 | 3.0 | |
| Republican | Jon Jensen | 1,736 | 2.4 | |
| Republican | Joe Jaraczewski | 1,530 | 2.1 | |
| Total votes | 71,394 | 100.0 | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Nicole Patti (PVS)
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Nicole Patti (write-in) | 23 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 23 | 100.0 | ||
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General election
Prior to Kirkpatrick's election in 2008, the 1st district had been held by Republicans since this version of the seat was created following the 2000 census.
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) |
Paul Gosar (R) |
Nicole Patti (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners (D) | October 12–14, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.4% | 41% | 38% | 6% | 15% |
| The Hill/ANGA | September 25–30, 2010 | 403 (LV) | ±4.9% | 39% | 46% | 3% | 12% |
| Moore Information (R) | August 30–31, 2010 | 412 (LV) | ±4.8% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
| American Action Forum | August 25–29, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 41% | 47% | – | 12% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | August 24–26, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.4% | 43% | 39% | – | 17% |
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Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[15] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[16] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[17] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[17] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
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Results
Kirkpatrick lost on November 2, 2010 to Paul Gosar and the seat reverted to the Republicans.
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Paul Gosar | 112,816 | 49.7 | |
| Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent) | 99,233 | 43.7 | |
| Libertarian | Nicole Patti | 14,869 | 6.6 | |
| Majority | 13,583 | 6.0 | ||
| Total votes | 226,918 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
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See also: Arizona's 2nd congressional district
Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+13.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Trent Franks, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary
- Charles Black, US Army veteran and contractor
Results
Franks won an easy victory with over 80% of the vote in his favour.[18]
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 81,252 | 80.9 | |
| Republican | Charles Black | 19,220 | 19.1 | |
| Total votes | 100,472 | 100.0 | ||
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Democratic primary
Retired teacher John Thrasher ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Thrasher has twice attempted to unseat Franks, losing to the incumbent by 19% in 2006 and by 22% in 2008.(campaign site, PVS)
Candidates
Nominee
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Thrasher | 32,503 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 32,503 | 100.0 | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Powell Gammill, retired biologist and nominee for this seat in 2004, 2006 and 2008 (campaign site, PVS).
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 318 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 318 | 100.0 | ||
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General election
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 173,173 | 64.9 | |
| Democratic | John Thrasher | 82,891 | 31.0 | |
| Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 10,820 | 4.1 | |
| Majority | 90,282 | 33.9 | ||
| Total votes | 266,884 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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See also: Arizona's 3rd congressional district
Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, retired. He was re-elected with 54.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+9.
Republican primary
On January 14, 2010 8-term incumbent Shadegg announced his retirement at the end of his current term, making the third district an open seat.[19] In the wake of Shadegg's retirement, several Republicans declared their candidacy.[20]
Candidates
Nominee
- Ben Quayle, attorney and son of former Vice President of the United States Dan Quayle[21][22]
Eliminated in primary
- Bob Branch, professor
- Sam Crump, state representative[23]
- Pamela Gorman, former state senator[24]
- LeAnn Hull, businesswoman
- Steve Moak, businessman and philanthropist
- Paulina Morris, attorney[25]
- Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley
- Jim Waring, former state senator[26]
- Ed Winkler, former Mayor of Paradise Valley[27]
Declined
- Dean Martin, State Treasurer[24]
- Sean Noble, Shadegg's Chief of Staff[24]
- Andrew Walter, former Arizona State University quarterback and NFL free agent[24]
- James Weiers, state representative and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[24]
Campaign
Gorman gained national attention during the campaign for an ad showing her firing a Thompson submachine gun,[28] and for her cosponsorship of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill.[29]
Quayle, the initial frontrunner in the race, faced criticism for his prior involvement with the controversial rumour and gossip website "DirtyScottsdale.com". According to the site's founder, Quayle was one of the "original contributors" to the site, which covered Scottsdale nightlife with features including sexy photos of women, and was the predecessor to the gossip website TheDirty.com.[30] Quayle initially denied the rumors,[31] before admitting several weeks later that he did, in fact, write material for the site under the pen name Brock Landers.[30][32][33][34] Newcomer Steve Moak's strong fundraising[35] and television advertising blitz against Quayle saw him to be viewed as the new frontrunner, however he faced allegations that he illegally profited from a charity he had set up, hurt his campaign.[36][37]
Results
Quayle emerged victorious with 22.1% of the vote, while businessman and political neophyte Steve Moak came in second with 18%.[18]
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ben Quayle | 17,400 | 22.1 | |
| Republican | Steve Moak | 14,211 | 18.0 | |
| Republican | Jim Waring | 13,850 | 17.6 | |
| Republican | Vernon Parker | 13,411 | 17.0 | |
| Republican | Pamela Gorman | 6,473 | 8.2 | |
| Republican | Paulina Morris | 6,138 | 7.8 | |
| Republican | Sam Crump | 3,886 | 4.9 | |
| Republican | Ed Winkler | 1,353 | 1.7 | |
| Republican | Bob Branch | 1,141 | 1.4 | |
| Republican | LeAnn Hull | 1,044 | 1.3 | |
| Total votes | 78,907 | 100.0 | ||
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Democratic primary
Jon Hulburd filed his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on October 16, 2009.[38] The Hulburd campaign got off to a strong start and raised over $300,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009.[39] This attracted national attention with the DCCC naming the race as one of its top 17 races to watch nationwide.[40]
Candidates
Nominee
- Jon Hulburd, attorney and small businessman
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jon Hulburd | 27,388 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 27,388 | 100.0 | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Michael Shoen, attorney and nominee for this seat in 2008(campaign site PVS)[41]
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Michael Shoen | 392 | 99.7 | |
| Libertarian | Clay Adair (write-in) | 1 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 393 | 100.0 | ||
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Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Leonard Clark, Iraq War veteran (campaign site, PVS)[42][43]
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Leonard Clark (write-in) | 5 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 5 | 100.0 | ||
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General election
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Quayle (R) |
Jon Hulburd (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | October 16–17, 2010 | 655 (LV) | ±3.8% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
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Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[15] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[16] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[17] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[17] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
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Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ben Quayle | 108,689 | 52.2 | |
| Democratic | Jon Hulburd | 85,610 | 41.1 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Shoen | 10,478 | 5.0 | |
| Green | Leonard Clark | 3,294 | 1.6 | |
| Majority | 23,079 | 11.1 | ||
| Total votes | 208,071 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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See also: Arizona's 4th congressional district
Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+13. Since taking office, he has been re-elected nine times with no less than 62% of the vote.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ed Pastor, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 24,613 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 24,613 | 100.0 | ||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Janet Contreras, businesswoman (campaign site, PVS)
Eliminated in primary
- Joe Peñalosa, immigration attorney[18]
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Janet Contreras | 8,085 | 60.1 | |
| Republican | Joe Peñalosa | 5,368 | 39.9 | |
| Total votes | 13,453 | 100.0 | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joe Cobb, retired economist and nominee for this seat in 2008 (campaign site, PVS)
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 219 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 219 | 100.0 | ||
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Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Rebecca DeWitt, accountant and nominee for this seat in 2008 (campaign site, PVS)
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Rebecca DeWitt | 148 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 148 | 100.0 | ||
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General election
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 61,524 | 66.8 | |
| Republican | Janet Contreras | 25,300 | 27.5 | |
| Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 2,718 | 3.0 | |
| Green | Rebecca DeWitt | 2,365 | 2.6 | |
| Majority | 36,224 | 39.3 | ||
| Total votes | 91,907 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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See also: Arizona's 5th congressional district
Incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+5.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Harry Mitchell, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Harry Mitchell (incumbent) | 29,716 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 29,716 | 100.0 | ||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Schweikert, former Maricopa County Treasurer, former state representative, nominee for this seat in 2008 and candidate in 1994
Eliminated in primary
- Susan Bitter Smith, former Scottsdale city council member, candidate for the 1st District in 1994 and 2000 and for this seat in 2008.
- Lee Gentry, business owner, attorney, certified public accountant and candidate for this seat in 2008
- Chris Salvino, surgeon
- Mark Spinks, realtor[44]
- Jim Ward, venture capitalist
Withdrawn
- Eric Wnuck, businessman[45]
Results
Schweikert's victory sets up a rematch against Mitchell, who defeated him 53-44% in the 2008 general election.[46]
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | David Schweikert | 26,678 | 37.2 | |
| Republican | Jim Ward | 18,480 | 25.8 | |
| Republican | Susan Bitter Smith | 17,297 | 24.1 | |
| Republican | Chris Salvino | 7,156 | 10.0 | |
| Republican | Lee Gentry | 1,157 | 1.6 | |
| Republican | Mark Spinks | 884 | 1.2 | |
| Total votes | 71,652 | 100.0 | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Nick Coons (campaign site, PVS).
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Nick Coons | 306 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 306 | 100.0 | ||
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Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ryan Blackman
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Ryan Blackman (write-in) | 4 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 4 | 100.0 | ||
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Blackman withdrew from the general election.[47]
General election
Campaign
Prior to Mitchell's victory over incumbent conservative Republican J. D. Hayworth in 2006, the district had been held by Republicans since 1995, although it had been tending towards the Democrats. Schweikert posted signs across the district calling Mitchell a “lap dog” for Nancy Pelosi, after Mitchell voted for the 2008 bank bailout, the $787 billion stimulus law in 2009 and the Affordable Care Act in March 2010. This despite Mitchell's breaks with the Party on a number of Tax and climate change legislation.[48]
Endorsements
David Schweikert (R)
- Statewide officials
- Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President in 2008
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2010
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2010
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Harry Mitchell (D) |
David Schweikert (R) |
Nick Coons (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn Schoen Berland (D/The Hill/ANGA) | October 12–14, 2010 | 408 (LV) | ±4.9% | 42% | 45% | 1% | 12% |
| Benenson Strategy Group (D) | October 5–7, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 46% | 39% | — | 15% |
| National Research (R) | October 5–6, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 43% | 45% | — | 12% |
| Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) | September 26–27, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 43% | 40% | 6% | 11% |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D) | September 13–16, 2010 | 509 (LV) | ±4.3% | 45% | 44% | 6% | 5% |
| National Research (R) | August 31-September 2, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 38% | 46% | — | 16% |
| American Action Forum | August 25–29, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 44% | 50% | — | 6% |
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Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Tilt R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[15] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[16] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[17] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[17] | Tilt R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
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Results
David Schweikert defeated Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell on November 2, 2010, returning the seat to the Republicans.
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | David Schweikert | 110,374 | 52.0 | |
| Democratic | Harry Mitchell (incumbent) | 91,749 | 43.2 | |
| Libertarian | Nick Coons | 10,127 | 4.8 | |
| Majority | 18,625 | 8.8 | ||
| Total votes | 212,250 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
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Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...
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See also: Arizona's 6th congressional district
Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+15.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary
- Jeff Smith, investor
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 62,285 | 64.6 | |
| Republican | Jeff Smith | 34,137 | 35.4 | |
| Total votes | 96,422 | 100.0 | ||
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Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Rebecca Schneider, librarian and nominee for this seat in 2008 (campaign site, PVS)
Withdrawn
- Amos Chiarappa[10]
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Rebecca Schneider | 26,220 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 26,220 | 100.0 | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Darell Tapp (PVS)
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Darell Tapp (write-in) | 28 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 28 | 100.0 | ||
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Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Richard Grayson, writer and perennial candidate (campaign site)
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Richard Grayson (write-in) | 6 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 6 | 100.0 | ||
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General election
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 165,649 | 66.3 | |
| Democratic | Rebecca Schneider | 72,615 | 29.1 | |
| Libertarian | Darell Tapp | 7,712 | 3.1 | |
| Green | Richard Grayson | 3,407 | 1.4 | |
| Majority | 93,034 | 37.2 | ||
| Total votes | 249,383 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...
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See also: Arizona's 7th congressional district
Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 63.3% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+6.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Raúl Grijalva, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 33,931 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 33,931 | 100.0 | ||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ruth McClung, physicist (campaign site, PVS)
Eliminated in primary
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ruth McClung | 15,455 | 51.0 | |
| Republican | Terry Myers | 7,044 | 23.2 | |
| Republican | Joseph Sweeney | 3,702 | 12.2 | |
| Republican | Robert Wilson | 2,737 | 9.0 | |
| Republican | Christopher J. Flowers | 1,394 | 4.6 | |
| Total votes | 30,332 | 100.0 | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- George Keane, banker (campaign site, PVS)
Eliminated in primary
- Andrew Ibarra[18]
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | George Keane | 159 | 56.8 | |
| Libertarian | Andrew Ibarra | 121 | 43.2 | |
| Total votes | 280 | 100.0 | ||
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Independents
Candidates
Nominee
- Harley Meyer, high school teacher (campaign site, PVS).
General election
Campaign
Despite the Democratic lean of the district Grijalva faced a tougher than expected re-election campaign following his suggestion that businesses should boycott the state in response to the passing of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill. Both Grijalva and challenger, 28-year-old physicist Ruth McClung, benefitted from outside spending in the final weeks of the campaign, in addition to the national environment favouring the Republicans.[49][50]
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Raúl Grijalva (D) |
Ruth McClung (R) |
George Keane (L) |
Harley Meyer (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summit Consulting Group | October 4–5, 2010 | 1,807 (LV) | ±3.0% | 37% | 39% | — | — | 24% |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | September 29, 2010 | 686 (LV) | ±3.7% | 40% | 38% | 4% | 5% | 13% |
| American Political Consultants (R) | September 25–26, 2010 | 450 (LV) | ±4.3% | 42% | 35% | — | — | 23% |
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Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[15] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[16] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[17] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[17] | Tilts D | November 1, 2010 |
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Results
Two days after the election Grijalva was declared the winner, with his margin of victory being ultimately just 6 points.[51]
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 79,935 | 50.2 | |
| Republican | Ruth McClung | 70,385 | 44.2 | |
| Independent | Harley Meyer [42] | 4,506 | 2.8 | |
| Libertarian | George Keane | 4,318 | 2.7 | |
| Majority | 9,550 | 6.0 | ||
| Total votes | 159,144 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...
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See also: Arizona's 8th congressional district
Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 54.7% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+4.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Gabby Giffords, incumbent U.S. Representative[52][53]
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords (incumbent) | 55,530 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 55,530 | 100.0 | ||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jesse Kelly, Marine veteran and businessman (no relation to Giffords' husband Mark Kelly)
Eliminated in primary
- Jonathan Paton, former state senator[54][55]
- Jay Quick
Withdrawn
- Andy Goss, army veteran (endorsed Kelly)[10]
- Brian Miller, Air Force Reserve Major (endorsed Paton)[56]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, July 30, 2010
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jesse Kelly | 43,097 | 48.3 | |
| Republican | Jonathan Paton | 37,066 | 41.5 | |
| Republican | Brian Miller (withdrawn) | 6,613 | 7.4 | |
| Republican | Jay Quick | 1,933 | 2.2 | |
| Republican | Andy Goss (withdrawn) | 502 | 0.6 | |
| Total votes | 89,211 | 100.0 | ||
Close
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steven Stoltz, engineer
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Steven Stoltz | 482 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 482 | 100.0 | ||
Close
General election
Prior to Giffords win in 2006, the seat had been held by Republicans since 1985 under moderate Jim Kolbe.
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gabrielle Giffords (D) |
Jesse Kelly (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Action Forum | August 25–29, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Close
Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[15] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[16] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[17] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[17] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
Close
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords (incumbent) | 138,280 | 48.8 | |
| Republican | Jesse Kelly | 134,124 | 47.3 | |
| Libertarian | Steven Stoltz | 11,174 | 3.9 | |
| Majority | 4,156 | 1.5 | ||
| Total votes | 283,578 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
Close
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