United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2012

2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

Class I U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania


The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.

Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of 2024, this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate.[23] The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2-1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising.[24] Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years.[25] Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes).[26] Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.[27]

Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.[28]

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.[29]

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

More information Candidate (party), Receipts ...

Top contributors

[33]

More information Bob Casey, Jr., Contribution ...

Top industries

[34]

More information Bob Casey, Jr., Contribution ...

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
General election

Results

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. Casey did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013.

More information Party, Candidate ...

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Casey won 9 of the 18 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans.[40]

More information District, Smith ...

See also


References

  1. Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. Itkowitz, Colby (November 21, 2010). "Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election". The Morning Call. Archived from the original on September 5, 2012. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  3. Malloy, Daniel (November 26, 2010). "Murrysville native planning for 2010 run against Casey". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved November 26, 2010.
  4. Itkowitz, Colby (February 15, 2012). "Petitions filed for Pa. primary". The Allentown Morning Call. Retrieved February 22, 2012.
  5. "2012 General Primary: United States Senator". PA Department of State. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
  6. "2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race". Pike County Republican Committee. Archived from the original on November 15, 2011. Retrieved September 24, 2011.
  7. Reabuck, Sandra K. (September 28, 2011). "New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination". The Tribune-Democrat. Retrieved September 30, 2011.
  8. Levy, Marc (November 4, 2011). "Sam Rohrer to run for Casey's Senate seat". MSNBC. Retrieved November 6, 2011.[dead link]
  9. Guerriero, John (September 29, 2011). "Armstrong County Republican announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Erie". Erie Times-News. Retrieved September 30, 2011.
  10. Gibson, Keegan (September 13, 2011). "Welch to Enter Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
  11. "Burns Exits Senate Race". PoliticsPA. February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 2, 2011.
  12. Gibson, Keegan (January 14, 2012). "Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns". Politics PA. Retrieved January 16, 2012.
  13. Jerry, Tara (January 16, 2012). "Vernon Endorses Burns for Senate". Politics PA. Retrieved January 17, 2012.
  14. Itkowitz, Colby (December 10, 2010). "Dent versus Casey?". The Morning Call. Retrieved December 10, 2010.
  15. Jacobs, Jeremy P. (November 16, 2010). "GOP Looking For A Casey Challenger". National Journal. Archived from the original on February 12, 2012. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  16. "Is Casey closer to a serious challenger?". Politico. August 4, 2011. Retrieved August 8, 2011.
  17. Hundt, Brad (August 31, 2011). "U.S. Rep. Murphy says he won't run for Senate next year". Observer-Reporter. Retrieved September 2, 2011.
  18. Sullivan, Sean (December 5, 2011). "Pileggi Won't Challenge Casey in Pa". National Journal. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
  19. Levy, Mark (January 29, 2012). "Pa. GOP endorses Welch to challenge Sen. Casey". Associated Press. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  20. "Smith outspends, outraises Welch in US Senate race". Associated Press. April 13, 2012. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  21. Gibson, Keegan (April 16, 2012). "Where's Tom Smith?". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  22. Gibson, Keegan (March 26, 2012). "Smith Tax Votes Play in Senate Campaign". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  23. Gibson, Keegan (August 17, 2011). "Sen. Candidate Smith a Heavyweight GOP Donor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  24. Gibson, Keegan (March 28, 2012). "Bachmann Endorses Rohrer". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  25. "Primary 2012: Nominate Christian". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  26. Brennan, Kevin (April 24, 2012). "Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate Primary". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 27, 2012. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
  27. "11/6/2012 2012 GENERAL ELECTION GENERAL CANDIDATE LIST" (PDF). Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
  28. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  29. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  30. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  31. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

Share this article:

This article uses material from the Wikipedia article United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2012, and is written by contributors. Text is available under a CC BY-SA 4.0 International License; additional terms may apply. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.