United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Arizona,_2020
2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
Election of US Senator Mark Kelly
The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.[3]
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Kelly: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McSally: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly,[6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[7]
Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.
Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by a margin of 0.3% in the state, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962.[8] This also marked the first time since the 82nd Congress preceding the 1952 election that Democrats held both Senate seats in Arizona.
Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020.
Appointees
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip, resigned December 31, 2018[4][9]
- Martha McSally, former U.S. representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district, 2018 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, assumed office January 3, 2019[10]
Potential candidates not appointed
- Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[11]
- Barbara Barrett, Secretary of the Air Force and former United States Ambassador to Finland[11]
- Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona and former secretary of state of Arizona[12]
- Paul Gosar, incumbent U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[13]
- Eileen Klein, former treasurer of Arizona and former chief of staff to former governor of Arizona Jan Brewer[11]
- Cindy McCain, widow of former U.S. senator John McCain[11]
- Meghan McCain, daughter of former U.S. senator John McCain[14]
- Mick McGuire, incumbent adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard[13]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, businesswoman and incumbent member of the Arizona Board of Regents[11]
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative, 2002 gubernatorial nominee and former chairperson of the Arizona Republican Party[11]
- David Schweikert, incumbent U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district[15]
- John Shadegg, former U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district[11]
- Kelli Ward, former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[13]
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[13]
Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign, however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.[16]
Candidates
Nominee
- Martha McSally, incumbent U.S. senator and former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district[17][18]
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined
- Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[27]
- Joe Arpaio, former Sheriff of Maricopa County and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for Maricopa County Sheriff)[28][29]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona[30]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[31]
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip[9][32][33]
- Blake Masters, president of the Thiel Foundation[34][35]
- Curt Schilling, former Major League Baseball player and Blaze Media commentator[36]
- Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona[37][38]
Endorsements
- U.S. presidents
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States[39]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[40]
- State officials
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[41]
- Individuals
- Buzz Aldrin, U.S. astronaut[42]
- Organizations
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | 551,119 | 75.2% | |
Republican | Daniel McCarthy | 181,551 | 24.8% | |
Republican | Sean Lyons (write-in) | 210 | nil | |
Total votes | 732,880 | 100.0% |
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Kelly, retired American astronaut, engineer, retired U.S. Navy Captain and husband of former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords[49]
Eliminated in primary
- Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[19]
Withdrew
- Mohammad Arif, businessman and perennial candidate (write-in)[50] (switched to Democratic general election write-in candidacy)[51]
- Sheila Bilyeu, Democratic candidate for the 2020 United States Senate election in Oklahoma[52]
- Juan Angel Vasquez[53]
Declined
- Ruben Gallego, incumbent U.S. representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (running for re-election) (endorsed Mark Kelly)[54]
- Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State of Arizona[55]
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[56]
Endorsements
- U.S. presidents
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States[57]
- U.S. senators
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California[58]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota[59]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. senator from Arizona[60]
- U.S. representatives
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative (AZ-07)[54]
- Individuals
- Organizations
- 314 Action[61]
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[62]
- Council for a Livable World[63]
- Brady Campaign[64]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[65]
- End Citizens United[66]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[67]
- Feminist Majority PAC[68]
- High School Democrats of America[69]
- Human Rights Campaign[70]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[71]
- League of Conservation Voters[72]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[73]
- National Organization for Women[74]
- Students for Gun Legislation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[75]
- Sierra Club[76]
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[77]
- VoteVets[78]
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly | 665,620 | 99.9% | |
Democratic | Bo Garcia (write-in) | 451 | 0.1% | |
Total votes | 666,071 | 100.0% |
Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.
Write-in candidates
Eliminated in primary
- Barry Hess, write-in Libertarian candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona and Libertarian nominee in the 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election[79][80]
- Alan White[19]
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Barry Hess (write-in) | 329 | 76.5% | |
Libertarian | Alan White (write-in) | 101 | 23.5% | |
Total votes | 430 | 100.0% |
General election write-in candidates
Declared
- Republican
- Democratic
- Other
- Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent)[81]
- William "Will" Decker (Independent)[81]
- Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian)[81]
- Nicholas N. Glenn, navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican)[81]
- Mathew Haupt (Independent)[81]
- Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent)[81]
- Joshua Rodriguez (Unity)[81]
- Frank Saenz (Independent)[81]
- Jim Stevens (Independent)[81]
Withdrawn
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 6, 2020
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[84] | Lean D (flip) | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[85] | Tilt D (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[87] | Lean D (flip) | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[88] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[89] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[90] | Likely D (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
538[91] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[92] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States[39]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[40]
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[93]
- State officials
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[41]
- Organizations
- Maggie's List[43]
- Campaign for Working Families[44]
- Huck PAC[45]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[46]
- Susan B. Anthony List[47]
- Newspapers
- Others
- Buzz Aldrin, former astronaut and lunar module pilot for Apollo 11[95]
- Federal officials
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States[96]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California; 49th Vice President of the United States[58]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota[59]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. senator from Arizona[97]
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative from AZ-07[54]
- Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from MA-06[98]
- Organizations
- 314 Action[61]
- Center for Biological Diversity[99]
- Climate Hawks Vote[100]
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[62]
- Council for a Livable World[63]
- Brady Campaign[64]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[65]
- End Citizens United[66]
- Equality Arizona[101]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[67]
- Feminist Majority PAC[68]
- High School Democrats of America[69]
- Human Rights Campaign[70]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[71]
- J Street[102]
- League of Conservation Voters[72]
- MoveOn[103]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[73]
- National Education Association[104]
- National Organization for Women[74]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[105]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[75]
- Sierra Club[76]
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[77]
- VoteVets[78]
- Unions
- Newspapers
- Others
- Kerry Washington, actress
Polling
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally | |||||
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Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Mark Kelly | Martha McSally | Margin |
270 to Win | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.8% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.0 |
Real Clear Politics | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 50.5% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.7 |
Average | 50.2% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.4 |
Polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Daniel McCarthy (R) |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research[upper-alpha 12] | June 20–23, 2020 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Martha McSally (R) |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | February 12–13, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | 10%[lower-alpha 15] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 16%[lower-alpha 92] |
Public Policy Polling | January 24–25, 2019 | 682 (V) | – | 40% | 54% | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | October 4–8, 2020 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10%[lower-alpha 93] |
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | September 23 – October 2, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 42% | 14%[lower-alpha 94] |
Data For Progress[upper-alpha 13] | September 15–22, 2020 | 481 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 42% | 15%[lower-alpha 47] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 10–15, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 50% | 6%[lower-alpha 95] |
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 46% | 13%[lower-alpha 96] |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 9] | August 2–4, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 43% | 14%[lower-alpha 97] |
Climate Nexus | Feb 11–15, 2020 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 44% | 12%[lower-alpha 98] |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] | Jan 22–24, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | 6%[lower-alpha 99] |
OH Predictive Insights | December 3–4, 2019 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 11%[lower-alpha 100] |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | 14%[lower-alpha 101] |
OH Predictive Insights Archived September 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | February 12–13, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 39% | 17%[lower-alpha 102] |
- with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly
- with Ruben Gallego
- on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected
- with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly | 1,716,467 | 51.16% | +10.41% | |
Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | 1,637,661 | 48.81% | −4.90% | |
Write-in | 1,169 | 0.03% | -0.03% | ||
Total votes | 3,355,297 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic gain from Republican |
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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- In December 2018, McSally was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator John McCain and the resignation of Senator Jon Kyl.
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
- Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
- Poll sponsored by AARP.
- Polling was sponsored by OANN.
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- "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence Endorses Gun Violence Survivors, Speaker Pelosi, Congressional Allies". Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. March 23, 2020. Archived from the original on June 11, 2020. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
- "Mark Kelly for Senate (D-AZ)". Council for a Livable World.
- Heyne, Christian (August 20, 2019). "Brady Endorses Mark Kelly for U.S. Senate". Brady.
- "DSCC Endorses Mark Kelly in Arizona Senate Campaign". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. April 8, 2019. Retrieved October 16, 2019.
- "End Citizens United Endorses Mark Kelly for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United. April 15, 2019. Retrieved June 20, 2019.
- "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Mark Kelly for U.S. Senate in Arizona". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
- "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
- "HSDA 2020 — High School Democrats of America". Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 27, 2020.
- Acosta, Lucas (January 23, 2020). "HRC Announces Senate Endorsements in Effort to Achieve Pro-Equality Majority". Human Rights Campaign.
- "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.[permanent dead link]
- "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Kelly for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. June 6, 2019. Retrieved June 20, 2019.
- "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Mark Kelly for U.S. Senate – NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America. July 15, 2019.
- "2020 Federal Endorsements – NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
- Axelrod, Tal (October 10, 2019). "Planned Parenthood issues first wave of 2020 House, Senate endorsements". The Hill.
The endorsees include Senate hopeful Mark Kelly, a Democrat running to unseat Sen. Martha McSally (R) in Arizona,
- "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club. March 19, 2021.
- "Candidates". VoteVets.org.
- "The Green Papers: Arizona 2020 General Election". The Green Papers. May 7, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- "2020 General Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
- "Kay, Robert". FEC. Retrieved May 23, 2020.
- "Statement of Interests Filed". Arizona Secretary of State. April 6, 2020. Archived from the original on April 11, 2020. Retrieved May 25, 2020.
- "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
- "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
- Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- "Support Martha McSally". WinRed.
- "Editorial: Election endorsements". October 19, 2020. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- Fordham, Evie (October 25, 2020). "Buzz Aldrin picks Arizona Republican McSally over fellow astronaut Kelly". Fox News. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
- Obama, Barack (September 25, 2020). "Second Wave of 2020 Endorsements". Medium.
- Yvonne Wingette Sanchez (October 3, 2020). "Sen. Sinema joins Senate battle, blasts Sen. McSally as willing to 'say anything to get elected'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 6, 2020.
- "Serve America PAC endorses six new federal candidates". Serve America PAC. March 11, 2020.
- "Mark Kelly". Climate Hawks Vote.
- "Voter Guide". Equality Arizona.
- "Mark Kelly (D, AZ)". J Street PAC.
- "Our Candidates". MoveOn.org.
- "U.S. Senate – Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
- "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
- "Arizona – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
- "2020 Star Opinion: Mark Kelly for U.S. Senate". Arizona Daily Star. October 7, 2020.
- "State of Arizona – Official Canvass – 2020 General Election" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
- "Arizona U.S. Senate Special Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 3, 2021.
- Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", The Washington Post
- National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "Arizona 2019 & 2020 Elections", OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites