United_States_presidential_election_in_California,_2020

2020 United States presidential election in California

2020 United States presidential election in California

Election in California


The 2020 United States presidential election in California was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] California voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate Kamala Harris, the junior senator from California. California had, in the 2020 election 55 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most of any state. California was one of six states where Trump received more percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.[lower-alpha 1] This election also marked the first time since 2004 that the Republican candidate won more than one million votes in Los Angeles County, due to increased turnout statewide.

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California is considered a safe blue state in presidential elections, due to significant concentrations of Democratic voters in large urban regions such as the San Francisco Bay Area, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and San Diego. As predicted, Biden easily carried California on election day, earning 63.5% of the vote and a margin of 29.2% over Trump. Biden earned the highest percentage of the vote in the state for any candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, although Biden's margin of victory was slightly smaller than Hillary Clinton's 30.1% in 2016, making it one of just six states in which Trump improved on his 2016 margin. Biden became the first candidate in any race for any office in U.S. history to win more than 10 million votes in a single state, while Trump also received the most votes a Republican has ever received in any state in any race since the country's founding, even narrowly besting his vote total in Texas, a state that he won.[3] Biden's vote margin was the largest vote margin for a presidential candidate in a singular state.

Per exit polls by Edison Research, Biden dominated key Democratic constituencies in the state including Latinos with 75%, African Americans with 82%, Asian Americans with 76%, and union households with 63%.[4] Post-election analysis by Cook Political Report showed Trump made inroads with some Asian American constituencies, particularly Vietnamese American and Filipino American voters.[5]

Biden flipped Butte County and Inyo County into the Democratic column, which had not voted Democratic since 2008 and 1964, respectively. Biden's victory in Orange County was only the second time a Democrat carried the county since 1936, as well as only the fourth time in the county's history. In contrast, while he improved his total vote share by nearly three percentage points, Trump did not flip any counties and his main regions of strength came from Republican strongholds in Gold Country, Shasta Cascade, and parts of the Central Valley. California Secretary of State Alex Padilla certified the results on December 4, and took Harris's seat in the Senate upon her resignation to become Vice President, having been appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom.[6]

California was one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being New York, Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois. Over 5 million votes of Biden's 7 million vote lead nationwide were Californian votes.

Primary elections

In a departure from previous election cycles, California held its primaries on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.[7] Early voting began several weeks earlier.

Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination on March 17, 2020, defeating several longshot candidates, most notably former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld. Kamala Harris, the state's junior U.S. senator, was among the Democratic candidates declared until she dropped out on December 3, 2019. Representative Eric Swalwell from the 15th district was also a Democratic candidate but dropped out of the race on July 8, 2019. Other prominent state figures, including former Governor Jerry Brown, current Governor Gavin Newsom, and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti declined to run.[8][9][10]

Republican primary

The Republican Party's primary campaign was dominated by a lawsuit over the President's taxes.[11] The suit alleges that the new requirement for several years of a candidate's taxes was unconstitutional and onerous. The law was blocked in September 2019 while State Supreme court heard testimony and made a ruling.[12]

As a contingency, the Republican state committee changed its delegate selection process, turning the primary into a mere "beauty contest" and setting up an emergency state convention to Trump's delegate choices.[13] If Trump were allowed on the ballot, the convention would be canceled and the so-called "winner-take-most" rules, which require a challenger to get 20% of the vote, would apply.

Incumbent Trump was allowed on the ballot, and the contingency convention was canceled.

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Democratic primary

Candidates began filing their paperwork on November 4, 2019, and the final list was announced on December 9.

Leading California Democrats complained that Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren were snubbing the state by refusing to attend a forum at the State's "endorsement convention".[15] Early voting began on February 11 and ended the day before primary day.

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Bernie Sanders rally at the Los Angeles Convention Center
Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally in San Jose on March 1, 2020
Joe Biden's presidential campaign in Bel Air, Los Angeles, on March 5, 2020
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Libertarian primary

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The Libertarian Party of California permitted non-affiliated voters to vote in their presidential primary.[20]

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Green primary

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American Independent primary

The American Independent Party permitted non-affiliated voters to vote in their presidential primary.[20]

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Peace and Freedom primary

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General election

Final predictions

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Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

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Polls

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Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer

with Donald Trump and Deval Patrick

with Donald Trump and Andrew Yang

with Donald Trump and Cory Booker

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke

with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand

with Donald Trump and Jerry Brown

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

with Donald Trump and Eric Garcetti

with Donald Trump and Tom Hanks

with Donald Trump and Eric Holder

with Donald Trump and Mitch Landrieu

with Donald Trump and Michelle Obama

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

with Donald Trump and Mark Zuckerberg

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

with Mike Pence and Michael Bloomberg

with Mike Pence and Pete Buttigieg

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

with Nikki Haley and Joe Biden

with Nikki Haley and Pete Buttigieg

with Nikki Haley and Bernie Sanders

with Nikki Haley and Elizabeth Warren

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

with Mike Pence and Beto O'Rourke

with Nikki Haley and Kamala Harris

with Nikki Haley and Beto O'Rourke

Results

Biden won California with a smaller margin of victory than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Nevertheless, he performed well in most urban areas of the state. Biden is also the first candidate for any statewide race in American history to receive over ten million votes.

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By county

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 46 of the 53 congressional districts in California, including four that were flipped or held by Republicans in Congress.[41]

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Analysis

Joe Biden won California by a landslide margin of 29.2%. Despite Biden's overall victory closely mirroring Clinton's, under a point behind her margin, there were large swings underneath the statewide margins. Biden lost ground in large diverse counties while improving in mostly whiter and more suburban counties.[42] While Trump yet again lost Los Angeles County by a landslide and yet again received less than 30% of the vote in the county, he improved his standing in Los Angeles County, thanks to growth in mainly Latino neighborhoods in the Gateway Cities and the San Fernando Valley, alongside improvements in mainly Asian communities in the San Gabriel Valley. Trump also managed to gain in white neighborhoods as well, with visible gains made in Beverly Hills and other Westside communities, mainly because of the region’s high Jewish population, Burbank and Glendale in the eastern San Fernando Valley, and the Valley's southern wealthy neighborhoods such as Encino and Tarzana.[43][44] California is also one of the six states (along with Arkansas, Nevada, Utah, Florida, and Hawaii) as well as the District of Columbia in which Trump’s margin increased from 2016.

While Biden won Santa Clara County by a landslide margin of 72%, his margins shrank below that of Hillary Clinton's 2016 margins in the county. His margins slightly shrank in the more suburban communities of Santa Clara and Sunnyvale, even improving in very wealthy cities like Los Altos Hills and Saratoga, but his margins fell in the heavily Asian parts of San Jose, and Milpitas, which Biden won by a landslide, as Trump's comparison of Biden's proposed policies to socialism and communism drove Vietnamese American voters towards him. The issue over China in the South China Sea helped swing Vietnamese Americans, as well as Filipino American voters to the Republican Party. Nonetheless, Trump still received a small 25% of the vote in Santa Clara County, underperforming President Bush in 2004, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. [45] Trump also gained in Alameda and San Francisco County, but his improvements were smaller than Santa Clara County and Los Angeles County.[42] Meanwhile, Biden gained in the more white and suburban San Diego County and Riverside County.[46] In the former, Biden's improvements in wealthy suburban areas, like Carlsbad and Encinitas, alongside gains in more working-class Escondido and Oceanside,[47] helped overcome Trump's growth in the more Hispanic neighborhoods in southern San Diego County. In Riverside County, Trump lost ground in whiter more Republican territory in the southern part of the county like Menifee and Temecula, and in very liberal communities like Palm Springs in the Coachella Valley, which overcame Biden's decline in Hispanic communities towards the county's northwest, including Moreno Valley and Perris.[44] Trump also gained grounds in certain areas like West Covina and Carson.[44]

Outside the large population centers and the Inland Empire, both parties largely ran in line with their 2016 performances. In the Central Valley, Biden's margin was roughly unchanged, though he lost some support in the northern counties like Merced and Stanislaus while gaining in the more Republican southern counties around Kern (Bakersfield).[48] Biden improved by a point in Sacramento County but saw visible growth in suburban Placer County. However, Trump overwhelmingly outperformed his 2016 performance in rural and heavily Hispanic Imperial County, gaining 17 points.[48]

Edison exit polls

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See also

Notes

  1. The other five states were Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah, as well as Washington DC.
  2. Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary, when all-mail voting had already begun.
  3. Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when all-mail voting had already begun.
  4. Including 34 write-in votes
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. "Someone else" with 4%
  9. De La Fuente (A) and De La Riva (PSOL) with 0%
  10. De La Fuente listed as Guerra
  11. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with no voters
  12. "Another candidate" with 3%
  13. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  14. Archived September 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  15. "Someone else" with 3%
  16. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%
  17. "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  18. Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  19. Other with 0%; neither with 3%
  20. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 3%
  21. Other with 1%; neither with 3%
  22. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  23. "Other" with 6%; would not vote with 4%
  24. Other with 0%; neither with 4%
  25. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  26. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 3%

References

  1. "Historical Voter Registration and Participation" (PDF). elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov. Retrieved March 7, 2023.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Texas Presidential Election Results". The New York Times. January 5, 2021. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
  4. "California 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved August 8, 2021.
  5. Dezenski, Lauren (December 19, 2018). "Why California leapfrogged the 2020 primary schedule". Archived from the original on January 22, 2019. Retrieved March 4, 2019.
  6. Richards, Sam (March 30, 2017). "Jerry Brown for president? 'Don't rule it out!'". Contra Costa Times. Archived from the original on May 10, 2017. Retrieved May 10, 2017.
  7. Steinmetz, Katy (September 9, 2017). "The Philosopher King". Time. Archived from the original on November 10, 2017. Retrieved November 7, 2017.
  8. Desk, Washington (March 4, 2019). "Former AG Eric Holder rules out 2020 run". Archived from the original on March 6, 2019. Retrieved March 4, 2019.
  9. "California justices skeptical of requiring Trump tax returns". KCRA. November 6, 2019. Archived from the original on November 11, 2019. Retrieved November 11, 2019.
  10. Augie Martin and Paul LeBlanc (September 19, 2019). "Federal judge halts California law forcing Trump to release tax returns to qualify for ballot". CNN. Archived from the original on December 5, 2019. Retrieved December 10, 2019.
  11. "California GOP opens alternative pathway for 2020 delegates". AP NEWS. September 8, 2019. Archived from the original on November 11, 2019. Retrieved November 11, 2019.
  12. "California Republican Primary Results". electionresults.sos.ca.gov. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  13. "Statement of Vote: Presidential Primary Election, March 3, 2020" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. May 1, 2020. Retrieved July 12, 2020.
  14. "California Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. June 21, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  15. Myers, John (October 21, 2019). "California independents can cast ballots for Democrats — but not Trump — in March primary". Los Angeles Times. Archived from the original on November 16, 2019. Retrieved November 17, 2019.
  16. "Statement of Vote: Presidential Primary Election, March 3, 2020" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. May 1, 2020. Retrieved July 12, 2020.
  17. "California Green Party Primary". er.ncsbe.gov. Archived from the original on March 5, 2020. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  18. "Generally Recognized Presidential Candidates – March 3, 2020, Presidential Primary Election". Archived (PDF) from the original on December 7, 2019. Retrieved December 7, 2019.
  19. "2020 California Presidential Primary Election Results". Election Results. Archived from the original on March 4, 2020. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  20. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 23, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Archived from the original on May 27, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  23. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019. Archived from the original on June 14, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  24. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved April 27, 2020.
  25. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  26. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Archived from the original on June 16, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  27. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  28. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  29. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on April 15, 2020. Retrieved April 15, 2020.
  30. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  31. Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
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  34. "Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). archives.gov. December 5, 2020. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
  35. "Statement of Vote, General Election, November 3, 2020" (PDF). California Secretary of State. December 11, 2020. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  36. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  37. Park, Alice; Smart, Charlie; Taylor, Rumsey; Watkins, Miles (February 2, 2021). "An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2020 Election". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  38. Cai, Weiyi; Fessenden, Ford (December 21, 2020). "Immigrant Neighborhoods Shifted Red as the Country Chose Blue". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  39. Dotinga, Randy (December 17, 2020). "How San Diego Got So Blue in a Relatively Short Amount of Time". Voice of San Diego. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  40. "Flourish | Data Visualisation & Storytelling". Flourish. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  41. "California 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  42. "California Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

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