United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa,_2012

2012 United States presidential election in Iowa

2012 United States presidential election in Iowa

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The 2012 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose six electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election
Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

Obama won Iowa with 51.99% of the vote to Romney's 46.18%, a Democratic victory margin of 5.81% - a markedly closer result than in 2008, when the Democrats won Iowa with a margin of 9.54%. Romney picked up wins in 16 counties that Obama had won in 2008, most of which were in the western half of the state, while only one county, (Woodbury), flipped in the opposite direction.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that a Democratic presidential nominee has carried Iowa, any of its congressional districts, or the following counties: Allamakee, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan, Cedar, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clarke, Clayton, Clinton, Des Moines, Dubuque, Fayette, Floyd, Howard, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Jones, Lee, Louisa, Marshall, Mitchell, Muscatine, Poweshiek, Tama, Union, Wapello, Webster, Winneshiek, Woodbury, and Worth. This also remains the last election where Iowa voted to the left of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas or New Hampshire.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2012 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Quick Facts Candidate, Home state ...

On January 3, 2012, the Iowa Democratic Party held statewide caucuses to select delegates to the county conventions.[1] Incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed.[1] However, caucus goers also had the option of voting "uncommitted" rather than supporting Obama, and some Occupy movement and anti-war activists urged Democrats to vote "uncommitted" in protest of the Obama administration.[2][3][4] Of the 8,152 county convention delegates that were elected by the caucuses, 8,065 (99%) were for Obama and 87 (1%) were uncommitted.[5] In the floor vote taken at the Democratic National Convention, 62 Iowa state delegates voted for Obama.[6] The other 3 of the state's 65 allocated votes were not announced.[6]

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
Quick Facts Candidate, Home state ...

The 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 3, 2012.

Using the media's generally accepted definition of the Iowa Republican caucus as the non-binding secret polling at caucus sites and using the incomplete data available, the 2012 Iowa Republican caucus was the closest race in Iowa caucus history with only a thirty-four vote margin (about 3⁄100th of a percent) separating former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who received 29,839 votes (24.56%), and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who received 29,805 votes (24.53%). Representative Ron Paul of Texas ran a close third, receiving 26,036 votes (21.43%).

Trailing were former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (16,163 votes, 13.30%), Texas governor Rick Perry (12,557 votes, 10.33%), and Representative Michele Bachmann (6,046 votes, 4.98%). Former Utah governor and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr., who skipped campaigning in Iowa to focus on the New Hampshire primary,[7] received 739 votes (0.61%).[8]

In total, 121,501 votes were recorded,[8] setting a record for Iowa Republican caucus turnout;[9] this record was broken in the 2016 election by more than 60,000 votes.[10] However, this total was still far less than the all-time Iowa caucus record in the 2008 Democratic Iowa caucuses, in which 239,000 Democrats voted. The 121,501 votes represent 19.8 percent of active registered Republicans in the state[11] and just 5.4 percent of all Iowans eligible to vote.[12]

However, the vote totals of eight precincts were never counted, so the vote totals are not really known.

The secret polling results at Republican caucus sites were unrelated to the delegate selection process in 2012, although that has been changed for the 2016 election cycle.

If the Iowa 2012 Republican caucuses were regarded as the start of the Republican delegate selection process for the 2012 United States presidential election, the real caucus process was the election of Republican delegates to the county conventions, who would eventually determine the delegates at the state convention in June 2012. This would, in turn, determine the Iowa delegates who would attend the Republican National Convention in August, 2012.

This process rewarded campaign organizations that could not only get supporters to the caucus sites, but get supporters who would be willing to serve as delegates to county conventions and beyond. As a result, Ron Paul was ultimately able to win 22 of the 28 delegates to the national convention and Mitt Romney won the other six.[8]

The 2011–2012 pre-caucus poll results for Iowa had highly volatile results; Gallup polls showed the leading candidate in Iowa change seven times from May 2011 until the caucuses.[13] The 2012 caucuses also set a new record for political expenditures, with $12 million being spent, two-thirds of it from "super PACs" which dominated the campaigns by running highly negative attack ads.[14]

In the August 13 Ames Straw Poll, a traditional straw poll held in Iowa Republican caucuses, Bachmann narrowly defeated Paul, with Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty trailing in third. Following his disappointing showing, Pawlenty dropped out of the race.[15][16]

Three candidates' debates were held in Iowa over the course the campaign: one on August 11 in Ames ahead of the straw poll; one on December 10, 2011, in Des Moines, and one on December 15 in Sioux City. Several other joint candidates' appearances took place during the caucus campaign outside Iowa.[17]

The day after her unsatisfactory sixth-place performance in Iowa, Bachmann announced she was dropping out of the presidential race.[18][19] Following his low fifth-place finish, Perry initially announced he was "reassessing" his campaign "to determine whether there is a path forward," but subsequently stated that he would continue on to New Hampshire and South Carolina.[20][21][22][23]

More information Iowa Republican caucuses, January 3, 2012, Candidate ...

General election

Candidates

There were eight candidates on the Iowa ballot in the general election: the two major-party candidates (Barack Obama and Mitt Romney) and six minor candidates.[26]

Polling

Analysts considered Iowa to be a toss-up state—one which either major candidate could plausibly win.[30] A majority of statewide opinion polls have shown Obama tied with or leading Romney.[31] As of October 22, 2012, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight estimates that there is a 66% likelihood that Obama will win Iowa's electoral votes.[32] Up until September 2012, polling showed a close race with Obama narrowly leading. In late September 2012, Obama gained momentum and this continued through the first three weeks of October 2012, where he won almost every poll in that time period. In October, when Romney gained momentum in other states, Obama won the majority of the polls conducted. Romney ended up winning the second to last poll, but other than that, Obama won every poll in the last week. The final poll showed Obama leading 50% to 48%, while an average of the last 3 polls showed Obama leading 48% to 46%.[33]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

Barack Obama won 38 counties and Mitt Romney won 61 counties. Barack Obama won majorities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 35 counties and won pluralities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 3 counties. Mitt Romney won majorites in terms of the popular vote percentages in 57 counties and won pluralities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 4 counties.

More information County, Barack Obama Democratic ...
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Obama won 3 of the 4 congressional districts, including one held by a Republican.[35]

More information District, Romney ...

See also

References

  1. [1]
    Espo, David; Beaumont, Thomas (January 4, 2012). The Virginian-Pilot. Associated Press. p. A1. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  2. [2]
    Nichols, John (December 20, 2011). "Iowa Challenge for Obama: Dem Caucus Votes for 'Uncommitted' Slate". The Nation. Archived from the original on February 10, 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  3. [3]
    Grote, Dora. "Iowa City doves urge Democrats not to caucus for Obama". The Daily Iowan. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  4. [4]
    Pearce, Matt (January 4, 2012). "The complete failure (and unnoticed success) of Occupy Iowa Caucus". Salon. Archived from the original on October 22, 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  5. [5]
    "Caucus Night Reporting". Iowa Democratic Party. 2012. Archived from the original on April 15, 2013. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  6. [6]
    "2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  7. [7]
    Holly Ramer, "Huntsman: Republican race wide open in Iowa's wake" (January 4, 2012). Associated Press.
  8. [8]
    "2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Republican". The Green Papers. 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  9. [9]
    Boshart, Rod (January 19, 2012). "No 'official' Iowa caucus winner, but Santorum got most votes". Iowa Caucus. Cedar Rapids, Iowa: The Gazette. Archived from the original on November 3, 2012. Retrieved October 23, 2012.
  10. [10]
    "Iowa Caucus Results - Election 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  11. [11]
    "Jan. 3, 2012 Iowa Caucus Results". P2012. Democracy in Action. 2012. Archived from the original on May 13, 2012. Retrieved October 23, 2012.
  12. [12]
    An estimated 2,250,423 Iowans were eligible to vote. Michael McDonald, "2012 Presidential Nomination Contest Turnout Rates Archived 2012-01-10 at the Wayback Machine" (January 4, 2012). United States Elections Project, George Mason University.
  13. [13]
    Jedd Rosche, "Iowa Caucuses 2012: By the numbers" (January 2, 2012).
  14. [14]
    "|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|p Editorial: In Iowa, a plague of stealth spending[permanent dead link]" (January 4, 2012). Detroit Free Press.
  15. [15]
    Peter Hamby, Pawlenty drops out of presidential race" (August 14, 2011). CNN. Archived January 20, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  16. [16]
    Michael D. Shear and Jeff Zeleny, "Pawlenty Drops Out of Republican Race" (August 14, 2011). New York Times.
  17. [17]
    "2011-2012 Primary Debates -- Schedule Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine.
  18. [18]
    Sarah Wheaton, "Bachmann Says She Will Not Continue in the Race" (January 4, 2012). New York Times.
  19. [19]
    "Michele Bachmann drops out of GOP race after Iowa caucuses" (January 4, 2012). Washington Post.
  20. [20]
    Chris Tomlinson, "Perry leaving 'quirky' Iowa for South Carolina" (January 4, 2012). Associated Press.
  21. [21]
    Dave Montgomery and Maria Recio, "Texas Gov. Rick Perry decides to stay in presidential race" (January 4, 2012). McClatchy Newspapers.
  22. [22]
    Associated Press and Philip Elliott, "Perry: Reassessing Bid After Iowa Caucuses Archived 2012-01-05 at the Wayback Machine (January 4, 2012).
  23. [23]
    Nicholas Confessore and Katharine Q. Seelye, "Assessment Complete — Perry to Stay in Race" (January 4, 2012), New York Times.
  24. [24]
    "Results Iowa CNN".
  25. [25]
    "- Fox News". Fox News. Archived from the original on January 8, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2012.
  26. [26]
    "Candidate List: November 6, 2012 General Election" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. October 18, 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  27. [27]
    "PSL gains ballot access in 13 states". Party for Socialism and Liberation. 2012. Archived from the original on October 22, 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  28. [28]
    Hicks, Nancy (September 2, 2012). "Third-party V.P. candidate finds home in Lincoln". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved October 23, 2012.
  29. [29]
    Malloy, Mike (August 31, 2012). "Ames man gets his name on the ballot". Ames Tribune. Archived from the original on October 1, 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  30. [30]
    The Washington Post, CNN, and The Cook Political Report all label Iowa "toss-up".
  31. [31]
    "Iowa: Romney vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  32. [32]
    Silver, Nate. "FiveThirtyEight". The New York Times. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  33. [33]
    "2012 - Iowa: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolitics". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  34. [34]
    "Iowa Secretary of State General Election Results". Archived from the original on December 29, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  35. [35]
    "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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