United_States_presidential_election_in_Utah,_2016
2016 United States presidential election in Utah
Election in Utah
The 2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in the District of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6 electors to be pledged for a candidate in the Electoral College. The two main tickets of the election were the Republican one, consisting of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, and the Democratic one, consisting of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
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| Turnout | 57.7% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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County results
Precinct results
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On March 22, 2016,[2] in the presidential primaries, Utah voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. The state uses a system of semi-closed primaries, meaning that voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated can vote in the primary of one party of their choosing. Utah was won by Trump, who won the state with 45.5 percent of the vote, the lowest percentage for any Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1992. Clinton received 27.5 percent of the vote, and Republican-turned-independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21.5 percent.[3] This was the only time since 1992 that the Republican presidential nominee failed to win a majority of the vote in Utah.
Trump's 18.08 point margin was the closest a Democrat has come to winning Utah since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won by 9.73%.[lower-alpha 1] However, this was due to McMullin's strong third-party showing limiting Trump to under 50% of the vote; Clinton received a smaller percentage of the popular vote than five other Democrats in this same time period (Barack Obama in 2008, Bill Clinton in 1996, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Hubert Humphrey in 1968).
This was one of only three states, the others being Idaho and Vermont, where the Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson did not obtain third place, as McMullin beat him in Idaho and Utah, and write-in votes for Bernie Sanders (who was no longer running for president) beat him in Vermont. Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Salt Lake or Summit Counties since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900, respectively. The state was one of 12 (along with the District of Columbia) that shifted towards the Democrats, and the largest of any of the state that did so.
Utah held its presidential caucuses on March 22, 2016.
Democratic caucus
Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential caucus ballot:
- Hillary Clinton
- Bernie Sanders
- Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)
| Utah Democratic caucuses, March 22, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 62,992 | 79.21% | 27 | 2 | 29 |
| Hillary Clinton | 16,166 | 20.33% | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Others | 34 | 0.04% | |||
| Uncommitted | 334 | 0.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 79,526 | 100% | 33 | 4 | 37 |
| Source: Utah Democratic Party | |||||
Republican caucus
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Three candidates appeared on the Republican presidential caucus ballot:
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Ted Cruz | 132,904 | 69.46% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
| John Kasich | 31,992 | 16.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Trump | 26,434 | 13.82% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 191,330 | 100.00% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Voting history
The state of Utah has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket in every election year since 1968 and only once voted for a Democratic candidate in elections since 1952 (in 1964). The state has a majority of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) population, which on the national level voted 78 percent to 21 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012.[4] This very heavily contributed to Mitt Romney winning the state by a margin of 73 percent to 25 percent in the 2012 election. However, Donald Trump's criticism of Romney's faith on the campaign trail in 2016 angered many Republican voters.[5] Polls suggested that Utah might be a strong state for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson as a protest vote against Trump.[6] As a result, Larry Sabato's online election forecaster, Sabato's Crystal Ball, downgraded their rating of the Utah contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on June 23.[7]
Evan McMullin, a conservative independent candidate, had also been viewed by voters in Utah as another alternative, given that it is also his home state. According to one poll released on October 12, Trump and Clinton were seen as virtually tied in Utah at 26%, with McMullin polling at 22%.[8] McMullin's rise was the result of further Republican backlash against Trump following the release of a controversial video from 2005 showing Trump bragging about obscene sexual conduct with women.[9] In a poll conducted by Emerson College from October 17–19 with a sample size of 700 people, McMullin placed first with 31 percent ahead of Trump by a 4 percent margin, who had 27 percent of support, while Clinton polled in third at 24 percent.[10] This was the first conducted statewide opinion poll of the 2016 election where a third-party candidate has placed first.
Had McMullin won Utah, he would have become the first nationally nonpartisan candidate since George Washington to win a state in 224 years since Washington's reelection in 1792,[lower-alpha 2] and ultimately the first nonpartisan candidate to win a state west of the Mississippi River.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[12] | Likely R | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[13] | Lean R | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[14] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[15] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[16] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[18] | Likely R | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[19] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
Donald Trump won almost every poll, except for one poll showing him tied with Hillary Clinton and Evan McMullin, and another showing McMullin with 31% of the vote, ahead of Trump's 27% and Clinton's 24%. The polling was close due to the large percentage of people polled who were voting for McMullin. The final RCP average showed Trump with 37% to Clinton's 27%, Evan McMullin's 25% and Gary Johnson with 3.5%.[20]
Candidates on the ballot
The following candidates were listed on the ballot:
- Donald Trump & Mike Pence (Republican Party)
- Evan McMullin & Nathan Johnson (Not affiliated with any Party)
- Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine (Democratic Party)
- Gary Johnson & William Weld (Libertarian Party)
- Darrell Castle & Scott N. Bradley (Constitution Party)
- Jill Stein & Ajamu Baraka (Green Party)
- Rocky De La Fuente & Michael Steinberg (Reform Party)
- Rocky Giordani & Farley Anderson (Independent American Party)
- Alyson Kennedy & Osborne Hart (Socialist Workers Party)
- Monica Moorehead & Lamont Lilly (Workers World Party)
Candidates not on the ballot
The following were certified by the state as "write-in candidates", which means that votes given to these persons would be counted:
- Stephen Paul Parks
- Mike Smith & Daniel White
- Laurence Kotlikoff & Edward Leamer
- Tom Hoefling & Steve Schulin
- David Limbaugh & Bo Gingrich
- Dustin Baird & Brandon Russell
- Andrew D. Basiago & Karen D. Kinnison
- Emidio Soltysik & Angela Nicole Walker
- Tony Valdivia & Aaron Roy Barriere
- Cherunda Fox & Roger Kushner
- Sheila "Samm" Tittle & R. Charles Casper-Kacprowicz
- Robert L. Buchanan & Jason A. Washington
- Marshall Schoenke & James Creighton Mitchell Jr.
- Janet Reid & John E. Reid
- Jamin Burton & Victor Neves
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
515,231 | 45.54% | -27.08% | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine |
310,676 | 27.46% | +2.77% | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson |
243,690 | 21.54% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson Bill Weld |
39,608 | 3.50% | +2.27% | |
| Green | Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka |
9,438 | 0.83% | +0.46% | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle Scott Bradley |
8,032 | 0.71% | +0.43% | |
| Independent American | Rocky Giordani Farley Anderson |
2,752 | 0.24% | ||
| Independent | Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg |
883 | 0.08% | ||
| Independent | Monica Moorehead Lamont Lilly |
544 | 0.05% | ||
| Independent | Alyson Kennedy Osborne Hart |
521 | 0.05% | ||
| Write-in | 55 | 0.00% | |||
| Total votes | 1,131,430 | 100.00% | |||
Results by county
| County[22] | Donald Trump Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Evan McMullin Unaffiliated |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Darrell Castle Constitution |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaver | 1,838 | 73.37% | 264 | 10.54% | 323 | 12.89% | 36 | 1.44% | 10 | 0.40% | 12 | 0.48% | 22 | 0.88% | 1,515[lower-alpha 3] | 60.48% | 2,505 |
| Box Elder | 12,230 | 61.53% | 2,282 | 11.48% | 4,257 | 21.42% | 591 | 2.97% | 76 | 0.38% | 210 | 1.06% | 232 | 1.17% | 7,973[lower-alpha 3] | 40.11% | 19,878 |
| Cache | 21,139 | 45.25% | 8,563 | 18.33% | 13,695 | 29.31% | 1,630 | 3.49% | 330 | 0.71% | 669 | 1.43% | 692 | 1.48% | 7,444[lower-alpha 3] | 15.94% | 46,718 |
| Carbon | 5,275 | 65.95% | 1,717 | 21.47% | 615 | 7.69% | 191 | 2.39% | 41 | 0.51% | 47 | 0.59% | 113 | 1.42% | 3,558 | 44.48% | 7,999 |
| Daggett | 331 | 69.39% | 77 | 16.14% | 44 | 9.22% | 17 | 3.56% | 0 | 0.00% | 4 | 0.84% | 4 | 0.84% | 254 | 53.25% | 477 |
| Davis | 62,219 | 44.35% | 28,776 | 20.51% | 39,735 | 28.32% | 5,390 | 3.84% | 864 | 0.62% | 883 | 0.63% | 2,421 | 1.72% | 22,484[lower-alpha 3] | 16.03% | 140,288 |
| Duchesne | 5,508 | 78.82% | 500 | 7.16% | 730 | 10.45% | 107 | 1.53% | 18 | 0.26% | 68 | 0.97% | 57 | 0.82% | 4,778[lower-alpha 3] | 68.37% | 6,988 |
| Emery | 3,425 | 79.37% | 380 | 8.81% | 362 | 8.39% | 71 | 1.65% | 3 | 0.07% | 15 | 0.35% | 59 | 1.37% | 3,045 | 70.56% | 4,315 |
| Garfield | 1,606 | 67.96% | 358 | 15.15% | 286 | 12.10% | 61 | 2.58% | 16 | 0.68% | 3 | 0.13% | 33 | 1.39% | 1,248 | 52.81% | 2,363 |
| Grand | 1,975 | 42.93% | 1,960 | 42.60% | 281 | 6.11% | 180 | 3.91% | 109 | 2.37% | 10 | 0.22% | 86 | 1.87% | 15 | 0.33% | 4,601 |
| Iron | 11,561 | 64.84% | 2,450 | 13.74% | 2,752 | 15.43% | 540 | 3.03% | 102 | 0.57% | 173 | 0.97% | 253 | 1.41% | 8,809[lower-alpha 3] | 49.41% | 17,831 |
| Juab | 2,827 | 66.97% | 442 | 10.47% | 762 | 18.05% | 72 | 1.71% | 14 | 0.33% | 44 | 1.04% | 60 | 1.42% | 2,065[lower-alpha 3] | 48.92% | 4,221 |
| Kane | 2,265 | 64.02% | 741 | 20.94% | 352 | 9.95% | 86 | 2.43% | 31 | 0.88% | 15 | 0.42% | 48 | 1.35% | 1,524 | 43.08% | 3,538 |
| Millard | 3,860 | 73.26% | 431 | 8.18% | 719 | 13.65% | 108 | 2.05% | 6 | 0.11% | 99 | 1.88% | 46 | 0.86% | 3,141[lower-alpha 3] | 59.61% | 5,269 |
| Morgan | 3,188 | 61.05% | 577 | 11.05% | 1,198 | 22.94% | 142 | 2.72% | 11 | 0.21% | 68 | 1.30% | 38 | 0.73% | 1,990[lower-alpha 3] | 38.11% | 5,222 |
| Piute | 626 | 85.75% | 47 | 6.44% | 36 | 4.93% | 11 | 1.51% | 1 | 0.14% | 5 | 0.68% | 4 | 0.55% | 579 | 79.31% | 730 |
| Rich | 797 | 71.29% | 104 | 9.30% | 174 | 15.56% | 21 | 1.88% | 1 | 0.09% | 10 | 0.89% | 11 | 0.99% | 623[lower-alpha 3] | 55.73% | 1,118 |
| Salt Lake | 138,043 | 32.58% | 175,863 | 41.50% | 79,880 | 18.85% | 16,306 | 3.85% | 4,965 | 1.17% | 2,047 | 0.48% | 6,639 | 1.57% | −37,820 | −8.92% | 423,743 |
| San Juan | 2,645 | 47.80% | 2,042 | 36.90% | 486 | 8.78% | 165 | 2.98% | 47 | 0.85% | 45 | 0.81% | 104 | 1.88% | 603 | 10.90% | 5,534 |
| Sanpete | 6,673 | 65.12% | 1,061 | 10.35% | 2,038 | 19.89% | 186 | 1.82% | 30 | 0.29% | 139 | 1.36% | 120 | 1.17% | 4,635[lower-alpha 3] | 45.23% | 10,247 |
| Sevier | 6,740 | 77.52% | 695 | 7.99% | 916 | 10.53% | 175 | 2.01% | 29 | 0.33% | 67 | 0.77% | 73 | 0.84% | 5,824[lower-alpha 3] | 66.99% | 8,695 |
| Summit | 7,333 | 35.11% | 10,503 | 50.29% | 1,786 | 8.55% | 756 | 3.62% | 170 | 0.81% | 44 | 0.21% | 293 | 1.40% | −3,170 | −15.18% | 20,885 |
| Tooele | 11,169 | 50.79% | 4,573 | 20.79% | 4,769 | 21.69% | 783 | 3.56% | 182 | 0.83% | 191 | 0.87% | 202 | 0.92% | 6,400[lower-alpha 3] | 29.10% | 21,992 |
| Uintah | 9,810 | 76.26% | 995 | 7.73% | 1,496 | 11.63% | 275 | 2.14% | 43 | 0.33% | 129 | 1.00% | 116 | 0.90% | 8,314[lower-alpha 3] | 64.63% | 12,864 |
| Utah | 102,182 | 50.18% | 28,522 | 14.01% | 60,532 | 29.72% | 6,437 | 3.16% | 1,030 | 0.51% | 1,994 | 0.98% | 2,945 | 1.44% | 41,650[lower-alpha 3] | 20.46% | 203,642 |
| Wasatch | 6,115 | 49.85% | 3,063 | 24.97% | 2,315 | 18.87% | 409 | 3.33% | 70 | 0.57% | 103 | 0.84% | 191 | 1.56% | 3,052 | 24.88% | 12,266 |
| Washington | 42,650 | 68.38% | 10,288 | 16.49% | 6,565 | 10.53% | 1,473 | 2.36% | 290 | 0.46% | 459 | 0.74% | 646 | 1.04% | 32,362 | 51.89% | 62,371 |
| Wayne | 966 | 67.74% | 271 | 19.00% | 135 | 9.47% | 18 | 1.26% | 12 | 0.84% | 14 | 0.98% | 10 | 0.70% | 695 | 48.74% | 1,426 |
| Weber | 40,235 | 46.78% | 23,131 | 26.89% | 16,451 | 19.13% | 3,371 | 3.92% | 937 | 1.09% | 465 | 0.54% | 1,416 | 1.64% | 17,104 | 19.89% | 86,006 |
| Totals | 515,231 | 45.05% | 310,676 | 27.16% | 243,690 | 21.31% | 39,608 | 3.46% | 9,438 | 0.83% | 8,032 | 0.70% | 17,057 | 1.49% | 204,555 | 17.89% | 1,143,732 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Salt Lake (largest city: Salt Lake City)
- Summit (largest city: Park City)
By congressional district
Trump won all four congressional districts.[24]
| District | Trump | Clinton | McMullin | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49.7% | 22.4% | 22.3% | Rob Bishop |
| 2nd | 46.0% | 32.0% | 16.9% | Chris Stewart |
| 3rd | 47.2% | 23.3% | 24.5% | Jason Chaffetz |
| 4th | 39.1% | 32.4% | 22.5% | Mia Love |
 | This section possibly contains original research. (February 2017) |
Utah gave the Republican nominee a 45 percent plurality and thus awarded him six electoral votes. This was the lowest percent of the vote Trump received in a state he won in 2016.[25][26] Trump received a much lower percentage of the vote in Utah than did Mitt Romney in 2012.[27] In particular, Trump underperformed Romney by over 30 percentage points in the Provo-Orem, Logan, and Ogden metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Clinton improved on Obama's performance in all of these areas.[28] Trump received only 45 percent of the vote among Utah members of the LDS Church, barely half the proportion that Romney won in 2012. This was also much lower than the 61 percent of the LDS Church's vote Trump received nationally.[29]
Evan McMullin's 21.3 percent of the vote is the strongest third-party performance in any state since Ross Perot during the 1992 presidential election.[lower-alpha 4][30][31] He finished second ahead of Clinton in fifteen of Utah's twenty-nine counties, becoming the first third-party candidate since Perot to outpoll a major party candidate in any county nationwide, and only the fifth since 1928 to do so in any non-Southern county.[lower-alpha 5] In Utah County, he received almost thirty percent of the vote, about twice as much as Clinton and more than any non-Republican presidential candidate since 1968.[32]
- In 1992, George H. W. Bush won Utah by only 16.02 points; however, this was ahead of Ross Perot. Bill Clinton lost Utah by 18.71 points in that election.
- Robert Marion La Follette senior in 1924 did win his home state of Wisconsin under an “Independent” banner,[11] and exceeded McMullin performance under a similar “Independent” banner in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nevada and Oregon. In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt also exceeded McMullin’s vote share under the “Independent” banner in Kansas, as did James B. Weaver in South Dakota in 1892.
- Perot exceeded McMullin’s Utah performance in twenty-six of the fifty states in 1992, with his best performance being 30.44 percent in Maine.
- The other four were William Lemke in the North Dakota counties of Burke, Divide, Williams, Mountrail and Towner in 1936, George Wallace in Utah’s own Kane County in 1968, John G. Schmitz in the four Idaho counties of Fremont, Jefferson, Lemhi and Madison in 1972, and Perot in numerous counties in 1992 and a few in 1996.
- "Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
- "2016 Primary Schedule – 2016 Election Central". Uspresidentialelectionnews.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- "2016 General Election Results" (PDF). November 28, 2016. Retrieved April 23, 2017.
- Bickel, Joshua (November 7, 2012). "How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis". Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
- Schleifer, Theodore (March 19, 2016). "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
- Azari, Julia (July 6, 2016). "The States That Love (And Hate) Third-Party Candidates". FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
- Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "The Electoral College: Map No. 2". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
- "UT Statewide Presidential Polling October 2016 Memo - Y2.pdf" (PDF). Dropbox. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- Dennis Romboy (October 11, 2016). "Poll: Trump falls into tie with Clinton among Utah voters". Deseret News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- "Emerson College Polls: Utah breaking for third-party candidate McMullin. Trump loses ground in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Ayotte (R-NH) and Blunt (R-MO) are tied in Senate bids, while Toomey (R-PA) is holding on" (PDF). Media.wix.com. Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- Dave Leip. "1924 Presidential General Election Results – Wisconsin". Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas.
- "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
- "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
- "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
- "Trump, Clinton underperformed in Utah's four Congressional Districts in 2016". Utah Policy. March 28, 2017.
- "2016 election results: Utah". edition.cnn.com.
- Roche, Lisa Riley (September 26, 2018). "Poll: Majority of Utahns don't want second term for Trump". KSL. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
- "See a Map That Shows Exactly Why Trump Won". Time. December 1, 2016. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
- Florida, Richard (December 7, 2016). "The Metro Areas That Swung for Trump and Clinton". Citylab. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
- Gehrke, Robert (November 18, 2016). "While Mormons nationally stuck with Trump, in Utah he lagged". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
- "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
- McCombs, Brady (November 9, 2016). "Trump wins Utah to extend GOP's 5-decade winning streak". Associated Press. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
- England, Katie (November 28, 2016). "Utah County gave Evan McMullin highest percentage of votes of any non-Republican since 1968". Daily Herald. Retrieved May 5, 2019.