Wikipedia:Ten-million_pool

Wikipedia:Ten-million pool

Wikipedia:Ten-million pool


This is a pool for predicting the date at which the number of articles (as defined by the official article count presented on the Special:Statistics) in the English Wikipedia reaches 10,000,000 (ten million). The person who comes closest to the actual date is the winner (of eternal fame). The current number of articles in the English Wikipedia is 6,813,372.

More information Closed pools, Closed for voting ...

This pool will be closed for entries when the English Wikipedia article count reaches 5,000,000 8,000,000 (80%), so be sure to place your guess before then. This pool opened on March 1, 2006, shortly after the 1,000,000th article was created.

2006–2009

2008

  • 1 January. Trekphiler 03:58, 11 September 2007 (UTC)
  • 5 July 2008 - Tommorrow! There will be a surge of about 13million edits! ← κεηηε∂γ (talk) 08:49, 4 July 2008 (UTC)
    • Okay, so that didn't happen... ← κεηηε∂γ (talk) 07:57, 14 July 2008 (UTC)

2009

  • 17 February - Soo 15:43, 15 April 2006 (UTC)
  • March 5, 2009 --Jonathan talk 19:03, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
  • July 4 - Perfect way to spend the 4th of July. User:MrMarkTaylor What's that?/What I Do/Feed My Box 02:32, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
  • 14 July -gadfium 03:05, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
  • 5 August Honestly, I don't think it will happen, are there really 10 million topics that are worthy for a wikipedia page? Doppelganger 21:56, 4 September 2007 (UTC)
  • 15 August - Korean alpha for knowledge (Talk / Contributions) 10:21, 4 March 2006 (UTC)
  • 26 September Smartech 02:51, 24 April 2006 (UTC)
  • 9 October - May NPOV be with you. THE KING 05:48, 10 September 2007 (UTC)
  • 14 October --May the Force be with you! Shreshth91($ |-| ŗ 3 $ |-| ţ |-|) 11:31, 11 May 2006 (UTC)
  • 31 October - based on an extrapolation of Wikipedia:Modelling Wikipedia's growth. And what happend to the billion pool? :-( Nossac 16:32, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
    • Now is not the time for a billion pool. When Wikipedia has 100M articles is the right time for one. Georgia guy 20:27, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
  • 18 November - a perfect birthday present for me! Wonder what else I'll get...Ezratrumpet 03:59, 2 March 2007 (UTC)
  • 21 December - Ek7 21:37, 3 July 2006 (UTC)
  • December 25 - Merry Christmas everybody! Astroguy2 22:37, 4 June 2007 (UTC)

2010–2019

2010

  • January 1, 2010. --JuntungWu 16:05, 10 April 2007 (UTC)
  • January 1 2010--Acebrock 07:15, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
  • January 30, 2010 --Zzzzzzzzzz 21:37, 8 December 2006 (UTC)
  • February 24 2010 - My 21st birthday. - JustPhil 18:51, 18 November 2007 (UTC)
  • May 3rd, 2010. • Lawrence Cohen 20:37, 10 September 2007 (UTC)
  • August 23, 2010 -- Cabe6403 (TalkSign!) 06:02, 1 February 2009 (UTC)
  • November 15, 2010. Whatever happened to WP:CRYSTAL? 137.205.74.230 (talk) 19:45, 26 November 2008 (UTC)

2011

  • February 12, 2011 --Anthony Ivanoff 10:33, 12 August 2007 (UTC)
  • May 23, 2011 --Mr.crabby (Talk) 16:53, 9 June 2007 (UTC)
  • August 15, 2011 (gosh I'm creative). Jon Harald Søby 17:20, 15 January 2007 (UTC)
  • August 28, 2011 Emre D. 01:21, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
  • September 16, 2011 - For no reason other than it being my 30th birthday (even if I'll still be claiming I'm 20 on my MySpace profile. DitzyNizzy (aka Jess) (talk) 19:51, 18 August 2008 (UTC)
  • October 3, 2011 Carnildo 21:12, 28 September 2007 (UTC)
  • November 16, 2011 Acs4b 06:46, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
  • November 27, 2011 Hello32020 12:20, 9 September 2007 (UTC)
  • December 22, 2011 69.140.157.227 (talk) 06:01, 24 February 2008 (UTC)

2012

  • January 7 2012 ۩ Dracion ۩ Talk 10:06, 8 March 2008 (UTC)
  • January 11 2012 -- Twthmoses (talk) 06:20, 19 December 2007 (UTC)
  • March 1, 2012 TraxPlayer 11:09 2 March 2006 (GMT+1)
  • April 20, 2012 --Uberisaac 18:22, 28 August 2007 (UTC) I'll have nearly finished univeristy by then
  • 6 June 2012 06:06 (GMT), Ikke
  • June 13, 2012. Aridd (talk) 13:51, 17 August 2008 (UTC)
  • June 17th, 2012, 5:35 PM *** GroundHog 14:15, 13 September 2007 (UTC)
  • July 15, 2012 — this might be the rate we're growing at by this time. --WCQuidditch 19:56, 19 June 2007 (UTC)
  • August 5th, 2012  Alfakim --  talk  01:02, 5 March 2006 (UTC)
  • August 16th, 2012 2:26 PM *** Pinkbladder Zachary Neugut (UTC)
  • October 1, 2012 Juppiter 05:04, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
  • November 6, 2012 --Blue387 21:48, 18 March 2006 (UTC)
  • December 8, 2012 yet another birthday guess. YechielMan 23:27, 21 September 2006 (UTC)
  • 21 December 2012, the last day of the final baktun. Sr13 (T|C) 08:36, 13 April 2007 (UTC)

2013

  • January 28, 2013 -- Wow. By then I'll be out of my teenage years... what a scary thought. Havocrazy 02:14, 24 December 2006 (UTC)
  • January 29, 2013. --HamedogTalk|@ 11:42, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
  • May 5, 2013 - hope that by then I'll forget all about this pool matli 14:25, June 13, 2009
  • August 10th, 2013 Tomwood0 6:06, 2 March 2006 (AEDST)
  • August 23rd 2012 Rcsprinter (post) @ 15:28, 16 July 2012 (UTC)
  • October 12th 2013 Mertozoro (talk) 17:53, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
  • 31 October, 2013 --Andrew 17:02, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

2014

  • January 29, 2014. --Ixfd64 (talk) 23:48, 27 March 2009 (UTC)
  • April 4, 2014 -- Highway99 03:56, 10 September 2007 (UTC)
  • April 8, 2014 --junafani 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
  • June 1, 2014 - Chris 21:05, 21 January 2007 (UTC)
  • August 28, 2014 -- darkweasel talk 14:11, 12 February 2009 (UTC)
  • 1 September, 2014 FBali 19:03, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

2015

2016

  • 1 January 2016 - a complete guess, but it would make a good new year story. Thryduulf (talk) 15:55, 27 August 2014 (UTC)
  • May 11, 2016 -LtNOWIS 17:02, 5 June 2007 (UTC)
  • 1 June 2016 --Joshua Issac (talk) 13:31, 13 May 2009 (UTC)
  • June 2 2016. Hiding T 20:11, 19 August 2008 (UTC)
  • August 17. Red Slash 09:57, 14 July 2013 (UTC)
  • September 17, 2016 -- Jpo 19:25, 24 September 2007 (UTC)
  • October 17, 2016. Total guess. BobAmnertiopsisChatMe! 01:51, 10 July 2009 (UTC)
  • November 2, 2016. Nobody will use date linking by then, so I will save the bot a few milliwatts by not date linking this guess. Tempshill (talk) 23:42, 25 May 2009 (UTC)
  • December 17, 2016. At the rate the new article creations are coming, it would take a few more years before we get to 10 million. 24.14.73.183 (talk) 22:20, 18 November 2011 (UTC)

2017

2018

  • February 6, 2018 SkyAmp6 (talk) 13:40, 21 July 2014 (UTC)
  • March 1, 2018. --Sociologist (talk) 15:20, 1 November 2015 (UTC)
  • April 18 2018 Clavecin 14:47, 1 July 2007 (UTC)
  • 10 October, 2018 -- ShadeofTime09 (talk) 22:52, 28 June 2011 (UTC)
  • 7 December, 2018 —Yutsi Talk/ Contributions ( 偉特 ) 14:25, 13 July 2012 (UTC)

2019

  • February 12, 2019 (Rayman60) 1st Nov 2015
  • July 13 2019 Just because it's my 42nd birthday. Gallifreyseven 2:33, 28 August 2012 (GMT)
  • August 17, 2019 Lugnuts (talk) 12:04, 17 August 2009 (UTC)
  • October 15, 2019 --SpeedKing (talk) 08:11, 17 August 2009 (UTC)
  • December 12, 2019 Nat 05:10, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
  • December 25, 2019 Dendodge|TalkContribs 19:05, 18 October 2008 (UTC)
  • December 31st, 2019 Bifgis 21:59, 2 March 2006 (UTC)

2020–2029

2020

  • February 19 2020 at 20:30 GMT. CipherPixel (talk) 07:58, 27 May 2009 (UTC)
  • February 20 2020 at 20:20 UTC. shoy 15:22, 1 October 2007 (UTC)
  • April 1 2020 00:00:001. Theres a billion more users online. Translatorbots incorporate all other language pedias. Wikipedia takes dictation and formats it automatically. Britannica gives up, merges. Multimedia articles with no text multiply, get textified anyway. Mars rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, go senile, compete to write the most articles, have Revertwar, Flamewar, foment revolution on Earth: robots go crazy, kill everybody, revive them, write lots of articles about it. Jimmy Wales clone allowed to write about himself. Everybody else gets a clone. Bill Gates gets two. The Vogons arrive. Exhubriant 20:54, 15 November 2007 (UTC)
  • May 29 2020. Also my 40th birthday. You know, the post above by Exhubriant was that person's only edit? I'm rooting for them. Hex (❝?!❞) 23:36, 13 November 2012 (UTC)
  • September 23, 2020, my birthday. GommehGaming101 (talk) 03:42, 17 April 2016 (UTC)
  • October 1, 2020. RockManQ (talk) 20:09, 13 October 2008 (UTC)
  • December 21, 2020. Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.16.170.226 (talkcontribs)

2021

2022

  • July 7 2022 The Bald One White cat 16:22, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
  • August 6, 2022 qmaqdk (talk) 10:30, 13 August 2012 (UTC) (originally entered August 6, 2011 on 15:32, 2 March 2006 (GMT+1))
  • October 5, 2022. Diderot's birthday and 250 years after the completion of the Encyclopédie. Lesgles (talk) 19:30, 15 November 2020 (UTC)
  • November 1, 2022 - Let's see! --Wafry (talk) 17:38, 1 November 2015 (UTC)
  • December 30, 2022 Sfoske70 (talk) 02:38, 1 December 2013 (UTC)

2023

  • February 14, 2023 at 16:28:04 [[EST]] Dylanvt (talk) 21:20, 17 January 2014 (UTC)
  • March 9, 2023 - User:ProfessorPi314
  • June 27, 2023 - JJBers (talk) 19:28, 19 October 2016 (UTC)
  • July 7, 2023 at 13:50:00.96 (1:50:00.96 PM) -- Using exponential function to predict, function is y=2003.468507*1.000000001^10000000, based on previous Wikipedia data. WhaattuSpeakwhat iDone 22:39, 30 April 2009 (UTC)
  • September 6 2023 --ÐeadΣyeДrrow (Talk|Contribs) 16:42, 31 December 2007 (UTC)
  • September 7 2023 --Zo3rWer (talk) 20:18, 1 November 2015 (UTC)
  • September 24 2023
  • October 6, 2023- Rubbish computer 00:22, 15 June 2015 (UTC)

2024

  • January 15 (Wikipedia Day). Well why not? Lanthanum-138 (talk) 11:38, 10 February 2011 (UTC)
  • 29 February. JaumeBG 11:41, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
  • March 27. Another educated guess. GVnayR (talk) 03:43, 15 March 2011 (UTC)

2025

  • March 3, 2025 - gENIUS101 21:53, 25 May 2009 (UTC)
  • April First, Two Thousand Twenty-Five 64.246.254.208 (talk) 01:00, 15 October 2008 (UTC)
  • April 9 2025 7:30pm (GMT + 12) Blacksmith talk 07:56, 10 September 2007 (UTC)
  • September 4th, 2025 - 4/9/2025 = 2^2/3^2/45^2 - aaPle (talk) 02:09, 9 September 2020 (UTC)
  • December 31, 2025 Alexfusco5 02:45, 9 January 2009 (UTC)

2026

  • Feb 10 2026 birthday gift SuperM789 (talk) 01:12, 13 December 2021 (UTC)
  • May 17 2026 — Jørgen88 (talk) 00:54, 20 October 2011 (UTC)
  • July 4 2026 — Sintonak.X 14:56, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
  • October 30 2026 — Bongolium500 (talk) 16:18, 26 April 2021 (UTC)

2027

  • February 28th, 2027 — ChaotıċEnby(talk) 08:28, 2 November 2023 (UTC)
  • December 10 2027 — Bjcffnet 1:23, 4 March 2006 (UTC)

2028

2029

  • March 24, 2029 - Intuitive guess based on some very fuzzy extrapolation from the time between 5 and 6mn ATMarsdenTalk 19:21, 19 February 2020 (UTC)
  • May 20 2029. I've seen some math estimates in the late 2030s, so based on random guessing and estimated estimation of exponentiality I'm going with this. Pie3141527182 (talk) 12:57, 24 April 2019 (UTC)
  • June 31 ???? I am only guessing. Pro66 (talk) 04:44, 5 January 2009 (UTC)
  • July 29 2029. Intuitive-ish guess. Nervelita (talk) 02:42, 23 December 2022 (UTC)
  • September 29 2029. I have maths on my side. How wrong could we be? (Well, very wrong. Probably very wrong, but that's the fun of it.) --Elfabet (talk) 18:12, 20 August 2018 (UTC)
  • October 1, 2029 Probably something so complicated it can't even me imagined at this moment in time LilacGear (talk) 02:33, 5 August 2017 (UTC)
  • October 31, 2029 — sligocki (talk) 03:12, 22 September 2009 (UTC)
  • December 31 2029 Car salesman 20:05, 14 April 2006 (UTC)

2030–2039

  • June 12, 2030. Kaiser matias (talk) 06:37, 15 January 2021 (UTC)
  • July 1, 2030 -- Workster (talk) 19:10, 17 May 2014 (UTC)
  • January 19 2031 -- Luis1007 19:44, 27 June 2007 (UTC)
  • 22 March 2031; After much research involving intensely complex graphical analysis of data. Someskitalk, contribs 20:22, 2 July 2020 (UTC)
  • June 21 2031.Seonookim (What I've done so far) (I'm busy here) (Tell me your requests) 06:39, 23 July 2013 (UTC)
  • February 2, 2032 m'encarta (t) 02:40, 7 June 2012 (UTC)
  • August 6th 2032 qmaqdk (talk) 10:38, 13 August 2012 (UTC)
  • August 23rd, 2032 Ravenclawjedi42 (all pronouns) (talk) 03:36, 28 December 2023 (UTC)
  • May 9, 2032 2679D (talk) 07:18, 2 November 2015 (UTC)
  • September 27, 2032 6:42:05 AM UTC+0 Brightgalrs (/braɪtˈɡæl.ərˌɛs/)[1] 10:08, 1 July 2012 (UTC)
  • September 28, 2032: It can still be a bit earlier as always. 2679D (talk) 03:13, 24 January 2020 (UTC)
  • December 23, 2032 – J947( c ) (m) 18:42, 17 October 2017 (UTC)
  • January 21, 2033 Benica11 (talk) 22:48, 23 January 2020 (UTC)
  • 14 March 2033. JIP | Talk 09:00, 14 April 2024 (UTC)
  • May 9, 2033--T. Anthony (talk) 10:29, 28 September 2013 (UTC)
  • September 12, 2033 65434fedcd (Talk) 07:26, 5 February 2022 (UTC)
  • April 16, 2034, based on.....math. --Deuteranopia 18:26, 30 April 2018 (UTC)
  • September 1, 2034 - StevenD99 03:44, 25 July 2014 (UTC)
  • February 27, 2035 PCN02WPS (talk | contribs) 03:14, 20 March 2024 (UTC)
  • August 12, 2035 -- RenkoTheBird (talk) 13:28, 17 April 2024 (UTC)
  • October 12, 2036 Γ (kaw)  02:40, 15 November 2019 (UTC)
  • 25 March 2037. Jc86035 (talk) 09:03, 18 May 2020 (UTC)
  • 12 December 2037. DuyWilliam1985 (talk) 02:48, 11 December 2021 (UTC)
  • January 19 2038 Nogwa 19:02, 3 April 2006 (UTC)
  • 22 March 2038. –ApChrKey 24 January 2020 18:36 UTC.
  • 23 March 2038, if article growth stays at 600 per day. — pythoncoder (talk | contribs) 18:57, 29 May 2018 (UTC)
  • April 22, 2038: I did a few calculations BinaryOrbitals 02:43, 24 September 2020 (UTC)
  • April 23, 2038: Just to be ahead of that guy above me Dialmayo (talk) 19:34, 28 February 2022 (UTC)
  • June 15, 2038 Clarinetguy097 (talk) 19:55, 19 January 2013 (UTC)
  • August 18, 2038: with my own rate. Thingofme (talk) 03:12, 10 July 2022 (UTC)

2040–2049

2050–2059

February 29, 2052. Nicolas Perrault (talk) 21:24, 26 October 2015 (UTC)

  • April 7, 2052. Georgia guy 23:11, 1 March 2006 (UTC)
  • June 6 2052. At exactly 14:23. - Ghelaetalkcontribs 15:55, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
  • Feburary 30, 2058, Virgo clinker universal light-time constant. (new calendar?, will that help relativity?) ProDuct0339 (talkContribbbs) 01:54, 22 March 2017 (UTC)

2060–2069

  • April 20, 2063 at 05:50 UTC  SchreiberBike |  04:30, 22 March 2015 (UTC)
  • January 21, 2064 at 2:24:00:01.19 -RandomManFromNanoLand
  • April 20, 2069 at 13:37 UTC, -AlphaRW, 14 January 2020

2070–2079

2080–2089

  • 8 August 2088, mainly because I like the number eight ~user:88ioi88. Predicted with high confidence on the 18th of June 2020, 16:51 GMT.

2090–2099

2100–2999

And all your base are belong to us! Rickyrab | Talk 22:41, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
  • Sol 26, 2112 - Sol Yes, a new month may be created! Qenzaf
  • January 7, 2150 Nillanilla3ee 19:19, 9 December 2007 (UTC)
  • February 22, 2222 at 2:22:22 AMUser101010 20:57, 20 December 2006 (UTC)

3000 or later

Never

  • Never. In 2016, 5 million will be reached (see ) and by 2022, 6 million articles will be reached. At that time any edit on Wikipedia can only done by referencing at least 4 independent sources. HenkvD 19:37, 19 March 2006 (UTC)
  • On January 1, 2018, the United Nations will unanimously vote to shut down the Internet, agreeing that it has done much more harm than good to human society. Wikipedia's 20,000+ featured articles will be printed in a ten-volume encyclopedia, and the rest of the database will be stored on microfilm in the New York Public Library. For decades afterwards sociologists will examine the millions of talk page archives, trying to figure out what it was about the Internet that made it so impossible to produce good things, but eventually this research will be halted for lack of funding. Ashibaka tock 18:07, 26 March 2006 (UTC)
  • Never. I agree with HenkvD. DarthVader 08:50, 18 May 2006 (UTC)
  • Never. I would agree with Henkvd, the maximum is 5-6 million (and the edit-requirement may also be correct), but unfortunately Ashibaka is right, but unfortunately again this will happen as early as 2008. Make your Personal backup in late 2007-- ExpImptalkcon 01:27, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
  • I agree with HenkvD. --GranTurismo2 18:37, 5 October 2007 (UTC)
  • Never, ever. Simply impossible.
  • By 2019 there will be no more room on the Internet. 71.124.63.69 01:33, 13 September 2007 (UTC)
    This also didn't happen. As of June 2023, there is still room there. Alfa-ketosav (talk) 16:32, 5 June 2023 (UTC)
  • There's not so much crap to talk about! Oh, wait... (clicks random article... Mamaki, Constantin Racoviţă, Louise Huff <--- ... So Interesting! Qevlarr 19:59, 1 April 2007 (UTC)
  • Never, Wikipedia will probably a) further deteriorate, alienating too many good contributors, or b) abolish IP editing, both alternatives with the result of a lot fewer articles being created. —AldeBaer 10:55, 26 May 2007 (UTC)
  • 10 million? 'fraid not. There ain't enough stuff out there to write about. Seldon1 15:41, 31 May 2007 (UTC)
  • Nope. Not nobody, not no how. All good things must come to an end. The Evil Spartan 17:06, 27 September 2007 (UTC)
  • Never, in 2014 computers will become self-aware. In short order they destroy the human race. They subsequently begin to rapidly expand the size of wikipedia, in a manner of hours they reach the 9,999,999 article but before they can realize that they forgot to account for an additional integer they destroy all of their internal software in an incident that makes Y2K look like a cherry bomb in comparison.- Moshe Constantine Hassan Al-Silverburg | Talk 06:29, 28 October 2008 (UTC)
    Did not happen as well. As of June 2023, computers aren't self-aware. Alfa-ketosav (talk) 16:30, 5 June 2023 (UTC)
  • Wikipedia will be replaced by sth Bulwersator (talk) 14:24, 8 July 2011 (UTC)
  • Never, for reasons not as spectacular as any of the above. (1) New article creation is currently on a decline. (2) Eventually Wikipedians will decide that the best way to handle articles doomed to be permanent stubs is to merge them with related articles (e.g., village articles merged into the article on the next higher administrative unit) which will be a factor to reduce total numbers of article. (3) Increasing difficulty in creating & improving articles will slow, if not stop article creation & improvement. (4) Reliable sources are finite; eventually all notable topics which do not require significant original research will have articles written. On the other side, I would enjoy being proven wrong, so feel free to keep creating articles. -- llywrch (talk) 19:20, 20 March 2015 (UTC)
  • Never because I believe that one day we will be ruled by Wikipe-tan and only the admin cabal will be able to edit under her. InvalidOStalk 17:55, 12 April 2019 (UTC)

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