2016_The_Republicans_(France)_presidential_primary
2016 The Republicans (France) presidential primary
Presidential primary election in France
The Republicans held a presidential primary election, officially called the open primary of the right and centre (French: primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre), to select a candidate for the 2017 presidential election. It took place on 20 November 2016, with a runoff on 27 November since no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1] It was the first time an open primary had been held for The Republicans or its predecessor parties.[2]
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Results of the first round by department and region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Results of the second round by department and region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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In the first round of The Republicans primary on 20 November, François Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Alain Juppé—long held by most opinion polls as the favourite to win the nomination—came in a distant second with 29%. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote.
In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the six departments and similar areas won by Sarkozy in the first round, all switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments and similar areas that originally voted for Juppé, eight switched to Fillon in the second round. The constituency for French residents overseas was won by Juppé in the first round and Fillon in the second round.
Unlike previous Union for a Popular Movement primaries, this was the first primary to be open to the general public.[2] The first round of voting took place on 20 November 2016. Voting booths were open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.[3] A runoff was held on 27 November after no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1]
All registered voters were allowed to vote in the primary, as well as minors whose eighteenth birthday was before 23 April 2017.[4] 10,228 voting booths were established with each person on the voting register attached to an office.[5] To receive a ballot, a voter must pay 2 euros.[6]
People abroad who wanted to vote in The Republicans party were given electronic voting machines to do so.[7]
Candidates from The Republicans had to obtain the support of 20 members of the National Assembly, 2,500 party members and 250 elected representatives to participate.[8] For candidates from other parties, the party themselves would decide the conditions for their submission into the primary.[6] Seven candidates were accepted by the High Authority on September 6, 2016:[9]
Validated candidates
| Name, age | Details and notes | |
|---|---|---|
| Jean-François Copé[1] (60) |
Copé announced his candidacy on 14 February 2016 at 20:00 on France 2 – while Nicolas Sarkozy was speaking on TF1 – a few weeks after the release of his book The French Start. After nearly 18 months of media silence, Copé said he was "ready" to return to center stage. Copé was quoted on France 2 as "being very hypocritical to delay unnecessarily", even when a judge's decision on the "sad Bygmalion case" arrived the previous Monday. Copé had been placed under attended witness status and thus escaped indictment. | |
| François Fillon[10] (70) |
Fillon announced his candidacy in April 2015 by declaring that he is "a candidate to bring a project of rupture and progress around an ambition to make France the first European power in ten years". He announced in January 2016 that he would leave politics if he fails to win the primary. Fillon had also committed, as Alain Juppé did, to serve only one term if he was elected President in 2017. | |
| Alain Juppé[11] (78) |
Juppé announced his intention to contest the 2016 Republicans (formerly UMP) internal election, which decided who will be the candidate of the right-wing for the 2017 presidential election, on 20 August 2014. The most popular politician in France, he is described by The Daily Telegraph as "a consensual conservative seen as less divisive than Nicolas Sarkozy".[12][13] | |
| Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet[1][2] (51) |
Kosciusko-Morizet declared her candidacy on 8 March 2016, on the occasion of the International Women's Day, stating that "I think we can finally change politics. I am a candidate to give everyone, every French person, control of their life." | |
| Bruno Le Maire[1][2] (55) |
Le Maire officially declared his candidacy at a public meeting in Vesoul on 23 February 2016. "My decision is simple, strong, unwavering. Yes, I am a candidate for president," he said on stage. Le Maire had earlier left little doubt about his participation in the primary. "If I told you that I was not getting ready for the primary, I would be lying. And I do not like to lie," he had said on RTL 4 in January. In the wake of his candidacy, Bruno Le Maire has also released a book about his vision of France entitled Do Not Resign. He already enjoyed broad support, including that of Michel Barnier and Yves Jégo, even as the UDI had not yet decided on its participation in the primary. | |
| Jean-Frédéric Poisson[1] (61) |
As head of the Christian Democratic Party, he was their candidate in the centre-right's 2016 primary. | |
| Nicolas Sarkozy (69) |
Sarkozy announced his intention to contest the primary on 22 August 2016.[14] | |
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Withdrawn candidates
- Xavier Bertrand,[1] President of the Regional Council of Hauts-de-France since 2016, former Mayor of Saint-Quentin from 2010-2016; former Minister of Labour, Employment and Health from 2010–2012; former Secretary-General of the UMP from 2008–2010
- Christian Estrosi,[1] President of the Regional Council of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur since 2015; Mayor of Nice since 2008; former Deputy Minister of Industry from 2009–2010; former Deputy Minister of Overseas France from 2007–2008; former Deputy Minister of Planning of the Territory from 2005–2007
First round
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |  |
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|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fillon UMP/LR |
Juppé UMP/LR |
Kosciusko-Morizet UMP/LR |
Le Maire UMP/LR |
Sarkozy UMP/LR |
Others/Undecided | |||
| Le Parisien/i-Télé-CQFD | 5–6 Jun 2014 | 988 | 13% | 19% | – | – | 28% | 40% |
| Ifop | 13–16 Apr 2015 | 704 | 5% | 33% | – | 12% | 42% | 8% |
| Ifop[permanent dead link] | 4–9 Jun 2015 | 1,879 | 7% | 42% | – | 13% | 33% | 5% |
| Ipsos | 25–31 Aug 2015 | 519 | 11% | 40% | – | 11% | 34% | 4% |
| Ifop | 3–4 Sep 2015 | 1,079 | 9% | 30% | 3% | – | 21% | 37% |
| Ifop | 25 Sep–9 Oct 2015 | 5,220 | 8% | 37% | 2% | 6% | 37% | 10% |
| BVA/Presse Régionale | 6–15 Oct 2015 | 11,244 | 8% | 31% | 2% | 11% | 38% | 10% |
| Ifop | 9 Oct-16 Nov 2015 | 5,274 | 9% | 35% | 2% | 9% | 34% | 11% |
| Opinion Way | 26 Oct–17 Nov 2015 | 400 | 21% | 29% | – | 10% | 11% | 29% |
| Ifop[permanent dead link] | 16 Dec 2015–7 Jan 2016 | 5,989 | 12% | 38% | 4% | 12% | 29% | 5% |
| Ifop | 11-22 Jan 2016 | 4,974 | 12% | 41% | 2% | 10% | 30% | 5% |
| Ipsos-Sopra Steria | 22-31 Jan 2016 | 1,333 | 9% | 44% | 2% | 11% | 32% | 2% |
| BVA/Orange et iTélé | 11-12 Feb 2016 | 1,053 | 11% | 47% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Ifop | 1-15 Feb 2016 | 4,967 | 11% | 39% | 3% | 11% | 32% | 7% |
| Elabe/BFMTV | 16 Feb-16 Mar 2016 | 5,001 | 11% | 41% | 4% | 13% | 23% | 8% |
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 18 Feb-10 Mar 2016 | 4,036 | 9% | 41% | 3% | 16% | 23% | 8% |
| Ifop | 23 Feb-18 Mar 2016 | 8,090 | 8% | 38% | 3% | 16% | 27% | 8% |
| Ifop | 29 Mar-14 Apr 2016 | 5,775 | 15% | 37% | 3% | 12% | 26% | 7% |
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 | 1,660 | 9% | 41% | 4% | 15% | 24% | 7% |
| Ifop | 28 Apr-20 May 2016 | 8,604 | 12% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 27% | 9% |
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 13% | 39% | 3% | 13% | 27% | 5% |
| Odoxa | 9 Jun 2016 | 1,033 | 9% | 28% | – | 7% | 54% | 2% |
| Ifop | 25 May–17 Jun 2016 | 1,037 | 11% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 28% | 9% |
| Ipsos | 17–26 Jun 2016 | 1,234 | 9% | 38% | 2% | 16% | 30% | 5% |
| Elabe | 17 May–29 Jun 2016 | 624 | 11% | 39% | 2% | 12% | 29% | 7% |
| Harris Interactive Archived 2016-09-20 at the Wayback Machine | 12-14 Sept 2016 | 563 | 10% | 37% | 3% | 9% | 37% | 4% |
| Ipsos | 9–18 Sept 2016 | 1,216 | 10% | 37% | 4% | 13% | 33% | 3% |
| Ifop | 22 Aug–5 Sept 2016 | 620 | 10% | 35% | 4% | 10% | 33% | 8% |
| BVA | 13–20 Sept 2016 | 774 | 11% | 38% | 4% | 11% | 34% | 2% |
| Ifop | 9–26 Sept 2016 | 527 | 12% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 31% | 5% |
| Kantar Sofres | 21-26 Sept 2016 | 561 | 8% | 39% | 4% | 13% | 33% | 3% |
| Harris Interactive Archived 2016-10-09 at the Wayback Machine | 3–5 Oct 2016 | 651 | 12% | 39% | 3% | 8% | 35% | 3% |
| Odoxa | 1 Sept–6 Oct 2016 | 680 | 11% | 39% | 4.5% | 12% | 31% | 2.5% |
| Kantar Sofres | 30 Sept–6 Oct 2016 | 586 | 11% | 42% | 4% | 11% | 28% | 4% |
| Odoxa | 10–20 Oct 2016 | 621 | 11% | 43% | 4% | 13% | 26% | 3% |
| Harris Interactive Archived 2016-11-12 at the Wayback Machine | 7–9 Nov 2016 | 975 | 17% | 39% | 4% | 7% | 31% | 2% |
| Kantar Sofres Archived 2016-11-16 at the Wayback Machine | 7–10 Nov 2016 | 714 | 18% | 36% | 4% | 9% | 30% | 3% |
| Odoxa | 9–11 Nov 2016 | 554 | 20% | 36% | 5% | 8% | 26% | 5% |
| BVA | 3–13 Nov 2016 | 928 | 18% | 37% | 4% | 9% | 29% | 3% |
| Ipsos Sopra-Steria | 8–13 Nov 2016 | 1,337 | 22% | 36% | 3% | 7% | 29% | 3% |
| Ifop | 31 Oct–14 Nov 2016 | 647 | 20% | 33% | 3% | 8% | 30% | 6% |
| Elabe | 9–15 Nov 2016 | 680 | 21% | 34% | 5% | 7% | 30% | 3% |
| Opinion Way | 13–15 Nov 2016 | 828 | 25% | 33% | 4% | 9% | 25% | 4% |
| Ifop | 10–17 Nov 2016 | 744 | 27% | 31% | 2% | 7% | 30% | 3% |
| Ipsos | 18 Nov 2016 | 807 | 30% | 29% | 3.5% | 5% | 29% | 3.5% |
| First round results | 20 November 2016 | – | 44.1% | 28.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 20.7% | 1.8% |
Second round
Polls conducted prior to the first round
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juppé LR |
Fillon LR |
Undecided | |||
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 | 1,660 | 72% | 28% | – |
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 66% | 34% | – |
Polls conducted after the first round
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juppé LR |
Fillon LR |
Undecided | |||
| Opinion Way | 20 Nov 2016 | 3,095 | 44% | 56% | – |
| Ifop-Fiducial | 21-23 Nov 2016 | 6,901 | 35% | 65% | – |
| Second round results | 27 November 2016 | – | 33.5% | 66.5% | – |
Hypothetical Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juppé UMP/LR |
Sarkozy UMP/LR |
Undecided | |||
| Ipsos | 25–31 Aug 2015 | 519 | 56% | 44% | – |
| Ifop | 3–4 Sep 2015 | 1,079 | 33% | 54% | 13% |
| Ifop | 25 Sep–9 Oct 2015 | 5,220 | 30% | 54% | 16% |
| BVA/Presse Régionale | 6–15 Oct 2015 | 11,244 | 48% | 52% | – |
| Ifop | 11-22 Jan 2016 | 4,974 | 62% | 38% | – |
| BVA/Orange et iTélé | 11-12 Feb 2016 | 1,053 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Ifop | 1-15 Feb 2016 | 4,967 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Elabe/BFMTV | 16 Feb-16 Mar 2016 | 5,001 | 64% | 36% | – |
| Ifop | 23 Feb-18 Mar 2016 | 8,090 | 62% | 38% | – |
| Ifop | 29 Mar-14 Apr 2016 | 5,775 | 61% | 39% | – |
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 | 1,660 | 63% | 37% | – |
| Ifop | 28 Apr-20 May 2016 | 8,604 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 63% | 37% | – |
| Ifop | 25 May-17 Jun 2016 | 1,037 | 60% | 40% | – |
| Elabe | 17 May–29 Jun 2016 | 624 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Ifop | 22 Aug–5 Sept 2016 | 620 | 54% | 46% | – |
| Harris Interactive Archived 2016-09-20 at the Wayback Machine | 12–14 Sept 2016 | 563 | 52% | 48% | – |
| Ipsos | 9–18 Sept 2016 | 1,216 | 56% | 44% | – |
| BVA | 13–20 Sept 2016 | 798 | 56% | 44% | – |
| Ifop | 9–26 Sept 2016 | 527 | 57% | 43% | – |
| Kantar Sofres | 21–26 Sept 2016 | 561 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Harris Interactive Archived 2016-10-09 at the Wayback Machine | 3–5 Oct 2016 | 651 | 53% | 47% | – |
| Odoxa | 1 Sept–6 Oct 2016 | 680 | 59.5% | 40.5% | – |
| Kantar Sofres | 30 Sept–6 Oct 2016 | 586 | 62% | 38% | |
| Odoxa | 10–20 Oct 2016 | 621 | 65% | 35% | – |
| Harris Interactive Archived 2016-11-12 at the Wayback Machine | 7–9 Nov 2016 | 975 | 58% | 42% | – |
| Kantar Sofres Archived 2016-11-16 at the Wayback Machine | 7–10 Nov 2016 | 714 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Odoxa | 9–11 Nov 2016 | 554 | 58% | 42% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juppé UMP/LR |
Le Maire UMP/LR |
Undecided | |||
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 | 1,660 | 66% | 34% | – |
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 67% | 33% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarkozy UMP/LR |
Le Maire UMP/LR |
Undecided | |||
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 46% | 54% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
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|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarkozy UMP/LR |
Fillon UMP/LR |
Undecided | |||
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 47% | 53% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Maire UMP/LR |
Fillon UMP/LR |
Undecided | |||
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 50% | 50% | – |
Juppé-Sarkozy
Juppé-Le Maire
Sarkozy-Le Maire
Sarkozy-Fillon
Le Maire-Fillon
In the first round of the primary on November 20, Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Juppé - long held by most opinion polls as the favorite to win the nomination - came in a distant second with 29%.[15][16] Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote. In his concession speech, Sarkozy endorsed Fillon and vowed to "embark on a life with more private passions and fewer public passions."[17] This led to some media outlets declaring that "Sarkozy's political career [had] been effectively ended."[18]
In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the five departments won by Sarkozy in the first round, all but one switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments that originally voted for Juppé, nine switched to Fillon in the second round.
| Candidates | Parties | 1st round | 2nd round | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||
| François Fillon | The Republicans | LR | 1,890,266 | 44.1% | 2,919,874 | 66.5% | |
| Alain Juppé | The Republicans | LR | 1,224,855 | 28.6% | 1,471,898 | 33.5% | |
| Nicolas Sarkozy | The Republicans | LR | 886,137 | 20.7% | |||
| Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet | The Republicans | LR | 109,655 | 2.6% | |||
| Bruno Le Maire | The Republicans | LR | 102,168 | 2.4% | |||
| Jean-Frédéric Poisson | Christian Democratic Party | PCD | 62,346 | 1.5% | |||
| Jean-François Copé | The Republicans | LR | 12,787 | 0.3% | |||
| Total | 4,288,214 | 100% | 4,391,772 | 100% | |||
| Valid votes | 4,288,214 | 99.8% | 4,391,772 | 99.7% | |||
| Spoilt and null votes | 9,883 | 0.2% | 13,040 | 0.3% | |||
| Total | 4,298,097 | 100% | 4,404,812 | 100% | |||
| Table of results ordered by number of votes received in first round. Official results by High Authority.
Source: First round result Archived 2016-11-24 at the Wayback Machine · Second round result | |||||||
- "Primaire Les Républicains 2016 : résultat favorable à Juppé dans les sondages". L'Internaute/La Rédaction. 26 January 2016. Retrieved 29 January 2016.
- Vinocur, Nicholas (11 January 2016). "Big fight for the French Right". Politico Europe. Retrieved 11 January 2016.
- "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre 2016. Archived from the original on 2017-02-05. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
- "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre 2016. Archived from the original on 2017-09-04. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
- "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre 2016. Archived from the original on 2017-06-07. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
- Goar, Matthieu (2015-04-02). "Le projet de charte de la primaire UMP". Le Monde.fr (in French). ISSN 1950-6244. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
- "Les expatriés pourront voter par Internet à la primaire de la droite". RTL.fr (in French). Retrieved 2017-08-04.
- Lorimer, Marta (1 June 2016). "The 2017 French presidential election: The race has started… and so far it has more candidates than voters". LSE. Retrieved 9 June 2016.
- "Haute Autorité de la Primaire. Décision – 21 septembre 2016 (HAP 2016-12 D), Liste des candidats à la primaire" (PDF) (in French). 21 September 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-11-17. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
- "Primaire de l'UMP : Fillon sera candidat "quoi qu'il arrive"". Le Monde. May 9, 2013. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
- Inti Laundaro (August 20, 2014). "Alain Juppé Declares Intention to Seek French Presidency in 2017". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
- "Ex-PM Juppé announces bid for 2017". France24. Archived from the original on 30 June 2015. Retrieved 27 June 2015.
- "Marion Maréchal-Le Pen: the new wonder-girl of France's far-right". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 2 January 2016.
- "Nicolas Sarkozy declares candidacy for French presidential election". The Guardian. Retrieved 22 August 2016.
- Henry Samuel (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy crashes out of French Right-wing primaries as Thatcherite Francois Fillon takes surprise lead". The Telegraph. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
- William Horobin (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy, in Upset, Is Knocked Out of Race for French Presidency". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
- "France Sarkozy: Ex-president exits after defeat". BBC. November 21, 2016. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
- Angelique Chrisafis (November 20, 2016). "Sarkozy defeated in primary for French right's presidential candidate". The Guardian. Retrieved November 20, 2016.