2018_Arizona_gubernatorial_election
The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.
Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
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| Turnout | 64.85%  17.33pp [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsDucey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Garcia: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The primary was held on August 28.[2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president.
Candidates
Nominee
- Doug Ducey, incumbent governor[3]
Eliminated in primary
- Ken Bennett, former secretary of state of Arizona[4][5]
- Robert Weber (write-in)[6]
Endorsements
Doug Ducey
- Arizona Association of Realtors[7]
- Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry[8]
- Arizona Fraternal Order of Police[9]
- Arizona Police Association[10]
- Arizona State Troopers Association[11]
- The Arizona Republic[12]
- Arizona Daily Star[13]
- Casa Grande Dispatch[14]
- Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona)[15]
- The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona)[16]
- Chandler Chamber of Commerce[17]
- Gilbert Chamber of Commerce[18]
- Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce[19]
- Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce[20]
- Mesa Chamber of Commerce[21]
- Tucson Metro Chamber[22]
- National Border Patrol Council[23]
- National Federation of Independent Business[24]
- Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona[25]
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff[26]
- Scott Mascher, Yavapai County Sheriff[26]
- Mark Napier, Pima County Sheriff[26]
- John Doyle, Nogales Mayor[27]
- Gerardo Sanchez, San Luis Mayor[27]
- Robert Uribe, Douglas Mayor[27]
- Cindy McCain, philanthropist and businesswoman[28]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[29]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[30]
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey |
Ken Bennett |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Archived 2018-09-06 at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.9% | 44% | 22% | 35% |
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Results
Ducey
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 463,672 | 70.7 | |
| Republican | Ken Bennett | 191,775 | 29.3 | |
| Republican | Robert Weber (write-in) | 91 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 655,538 | 100.0 | ||
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Candidates
Nominee
- David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014[32][33]
Eliminated in primary
- Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[6]
- Steve Farley, state senator[34]
- Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[35]
Declined
- Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for governor in 2010 and 1990[36]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)[37]
- Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)[38][39]
Endorsements
David Garcia
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[40]
- Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council[41]
- Arizona Education Association[42]
- Communications Workers of America[43]
- Organizations
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Farley |
Kelly Fryer |
David Garcia |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | August 14–15, 2018 | 589 | ± 4.0% | 25% | 7% | 40% | 28% |
| Data Orbital Archived 2018-07-03 at the Wayback Machine | June 25–27, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 11% | 6% | 33% | 49% |
| Emerson College Archived 2018-09-06 at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 260 | ± 6.2% | 13% | 8% | 30% | 48% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) | May 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 11% | 11% | 32% | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 446 | – | 22% | – | 43% | 36% |
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Results
Garcia
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Farley
- 40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Garcia | 255,555 | 50.6 | |
| Democratic | Steve Farley | 163,072 | 32.3 | |
| Democratic | Kelly Fryer | 86,810 | 17.2 | |
| Democratic | Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) | 44 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 505,481 | 100.0 | ||
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Candidates
Disqualified
Endorsements
Kevin McCormick
- Individuals
- William Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts[55]
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
Torres
- 90-100%
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
Torres/Dyer tie
- 50-60%
No votes
Candidates
Disqualified
Declined
- Tim Jeffries, former director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security[61]
Debates
More information Dates, Location ...
| Dates | Location | Ducey | Garcia | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24, 2018 | Tempe, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate – YouTube |
| September 25, 2018 | Tucson, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate – C-SPAN |
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Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[62] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[63] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[64] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[65] | Likely R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[67] | Likely R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[68] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[69][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[70] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[71] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
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Polling
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
David Garcia (D) |
Angel Torres (G) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 758 | ± 3.7% | 55% | 40% | – | – | 5% |
| HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | – | 2% | 5% |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24 – November 2, 2018 | 1,165 | ± 2.9% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–30, 2018 | 677 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 46% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX Archived 2018-11-05 at the Wayback Machine | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 57% | 35% | – | – | – |
| Fox News | October 27–29, 2018 | 643 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 2% | 5% |
| 710 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 3% | 7% | ||
| CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 702 LV | ± 4.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 43% | – | 0% | 3% | ||
| HighGround Public Affairs Archived 2018-10-30 at the Wayback Machine | October 26–28, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 55% | 35% | 4% | – | 7% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 54% | 40% | 5% | <1% | 2% |
| 55% | 42% | – | 1% | 1% | ||||
| 793 RV | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 5% | <1% | 3% | ||
| 55% | 41% | – | 1% | 3% | ||||
| YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 972 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 41% | – | 1% | 5% |
| Ipsos | October 17–26, 2018 | 799 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 2% | 3% |
| OH Predictive Insights | October 22–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Change Research (D-Garcia) | October 9–10, 2018 | 783 | – | 47% | 40% | – | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | October 3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | 2% | – | 7% |
| Data Orbital Archived 2018-10-05 at the Wayback Machine | October 1–3, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 1% | 7% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 2% | 9% | ||
| Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Suffolk University Archived 2018-10-03 at the Wayback Machine | September 27–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 10% |
| Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 463 LV | – | 45% | 40% | – | – | 15% |
| 610 RV | – | 41% | 37% | – | – | 19% | ||
| Emerson College | September 19–21, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 6% | 14% |
| Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 49% | 39% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
| 51% | 43% | – | <1% | 5% | ||||
| 763 RV | ± 4.2% | 48% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% | ||
| 51% | 42% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||
| CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 761 LV | ± 4.3% | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 2% |
| 854 RV | ± 4.1% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 4% | ||
| Ipsos Archived 2018-09-20 at the Wayback Machine | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,016 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | – | 4% | 7% |
| TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) Archived 2018-09-19 at the Wayback Machine | September 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 0% | 3% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 710 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 40% | – | 1% | 8% |
| 801 RV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | – | 1% | 10% | ||
| Gravis Marketing | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
| Data Orbital Archived 2018-09-11 at the Wayback Machine | September 4–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 41% | – | 2%[72] | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | August 30–31, 2018 | 554 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 13% |
| Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | – | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 44% | – | – | 14% |
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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Steve Farley (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| GQR Research (D-Farley) | February 23 – March 5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult Archived 2018-07-16 at the Wayback Machine | June 29 – July 9, 2018 | 1,641 | ± 2.0% | 34% | 41% | 25% |
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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 896 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | 21% |
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Hypothetical polling
- with Steve Farley
- with generic Democrat
- with Kyrsten Sinema
Results
Legend
- Democratic—+5-10%
- Democratic—+<5%
- Republican—+<5%
- Republican—+5-10%
- Republican—+10-15%
- Republican—+15-20%
- Republican—+20-25%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 1,330,863 | 56.00% | +2.56% | |
| Democratic | David Garcia | 994,341 | 41.84% | +0.22% | |
| Green | Angel Torres | 50,962 | 2.14% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 275 | 0.01% | -0.10% | ||
| Total votes | 2,376,441 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Close
Results by county
More information County, David Garcia Democratic ...
| County | David Garcia Democratic |
Doug Ducey Republican |
Angel Torres Green |
Margin | Total
votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Apache | 14,955 | 59.72% | 9,175 | 36.64% | 912 | 3.64% | 5,780 | 23.08% | 25,042 |
| Cochise | 14,576 | 32.10% | 29,638 | 65.26% | 1,201 | 2.64% | -15,062 | -33.17% | 45,415 |
| Coconino | 30,712 | 55.91% | 22,778 | 41.47% | 1,440 | 2.62% | 7,934 | 14.44% | 54,930 |
| Gila | 5,623 | 27.38% | 14,444 | 70.34% | 468 | 2.28% | -8,821 | -42.96% | 20,535 |
| Graham | 2,569 | 24.19% | 7,776 | 73.21% | 276 | 2.60% | -5,207 | -49.03% | 10,621 |
| Greenlee | 832 | 32.64% | 1,637 | 64.22% | 80 | 3.14% | -805 | -31.58% | 2,549 |
| La Paz | 1,122 | 21.99% | 3,852 | 75.49% | 129 | 2.53% | -2,730 | -53.50% | 5,103 |
| Maricopa | 603,055 | 42.09% | 800,210 | 55.85% | 29,495 | 2.06% | -197,155 | -13.76% | 1,432,760 |
| Mohave | 13,580 | 18.97% | 56,682 | 79.18% | 1,325 | 1.85% | -43,102 | -60.21% | 71,587 |
| Navajo | 13,646 | 37.30% | 21,880 | 59.81% | 1,055 | 2.88% | -8,234 | -22.51% | 36,581 |
| Pima | 195,227 | 50.25% | 184,621 | 47.52% | 8,678 | 2.23% | 10,606 | 2.73% | 388,526 |
| Pinal | 38,801 | 33.21% | 75,272 | 64.42% | 2,767 | 2.37% | -36,471 | -31.21% | 116,840 |
| Santa Cruz | 8,407 | 62.46% | 4,792 | 35.60% | 261 | 1.94% | 3,615 | 26.86% | 13,460 |
| Yavapai | 32,159 | 29.68% | 74,148 | 68.44% | 2,029 | 1.87% | -41,989 | -38.76% | 108,336 |
| Yuma | 19,077 | 43.47% | 23,958 | 54.60% | 846 | 1.93% | -4,881 | -11.12%% | 43,881 |
| Total | 994,341 | 41.8% | 1,330,863 | 56.0% | 50,962 | 2.1% | 336,522 | 14.2% | 2,376,166 |
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Results by congressional district
Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[74]
More information District, David Garcia Democratic ...
| District | David Garcia Democratic |
Doug Ducey Republican |
Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43.1% | 54.3% | Tom O'Halleran |
| 2nd | 46.1% | 51.6% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| 3rd | 57.7% | 35.7% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 25.1% | 72.9% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 34.0% | 64.0% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 38.2% | 60.1% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 67.3% | 29.6% | Ruben Gallego |
| 8th | 33.2% | 64.6% | Debbie Lesko |
| 9th | 52.2% | 45.5% | Greg Stanton |
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Voter Demographics
More information Demographic subgroup, Garcia ...
| Demographic subgroup | Garcia | Ducey | No Answer |
% of Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 40 | 58 | 2 | 47 |
| Women | 43 | 55 | 2 | 53 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| 25–29 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| 30–39 years old | 45 | 52 | 3 | 17 |
| 40–49 years old | 43 | 55 | 2 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 37 | 61 | 2 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 40 | 59 | 1 | 29 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 37 | 62 | 1 | 75 |
| Black | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Latino | 56 | 44 | N/A | 19 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Race and Gender | ||||
| White men | 34 | 64 | 2 | 34 |
| White women | 39 | 60 | 1 | 41 |
| Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latino men | 53 | 46 | 1 | 9 |
| Latina women | 58 | 42 | N/A | 10 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 32 | 67 | 1 | 25 |
| Some college education | 40 | 58 | 2 | 28 |
| Associate Degree | 38 | 59 | 3 | 10 |
| Bachelor's Degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 23 |
| Advanced degree | 59 | 40 | 1 | 14 |
| Education and race | ||||
| White college graduates | 48 | 49 | 3 | 27 |
| White no college degree | 30 | 69 | 1 | 38 |
| Non-white college graduates | 51 | 47 | 2 | 9 |
| Non-white no college degree | 61 | 38 | 1 | 16 |
| Whites by education and gender | ||||
| White women with college degrees | 50 | 49 | 1 | 15 |
| White women without college degrees | 33 | 66 | 1 | 26 |
| White men with college degrees | 46 | 49 | 5 | 12 |
| White men without college degrees | 28 | 72 | N/A | 21 |
| Non-whites | 58 | 40 | 2 | 25 |
| Military service | ||||
| Veteran | 33 | 65 | 2 | 14 |
| Non-veteran | 45 | 54 | 1 | 86 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 36 | 62 | 2 | 15 |
| $30,000-$49,999 | 54 | 45 | 1 | 19 |
| $50,000-$99,999 | 46 | 52 | 2 | 33 |
| $100,000-$199,999 | 31 | 67 | 2 | 24 |
| Over $200,000 | 28 | 72 | N/A | 9 |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 85 | 14 | 1 | 31 |
| Republicans | 5 | 95 | N/A | 38 |
| Independents | 45 | 52 | 3 | 31 |
| Party by gender | ||||
| Democratic men | 77 | 20 | 3 | 14 |
| Democratic women | 91 | 9 | N/A | 17 |
| Republican men | 5 | 95 | N/A | 15 |
| Republican women | 4 | 96 | N/A | 23 |
| Independent men | 42 | 56 | 2 | 18 |
| Independent women | 48 | 47 | 5 | 13 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 83 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
| Moderates | 57 | 41 | 2 | 38 |
| Conservatives | 4 | 95 | 1 | 40 |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 51 | 45 | 4 | 15 |
| No | 41 | 58 | 1 | 85 |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Health care | 64 | 33 | 3 | 42 |
| Immigration | 8 | 91 | 1 | 31 |
| Economy | 38 | 60 | 2 | 18 |
| Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 52 | 46 | 2 | 43 |
| Suburban | 34 | 64 | 2 | 51 |
| Rural | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| Source: CNN[75] | ||||
Close
- "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
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- Barry Hess (L) with 2%
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