2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina

2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina

2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina

Add article description

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state was narrowly won by the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Polls of the state throughout the campaign indicated a close race, with most organizations considering it either a tossup or leaning towards Biden. Despite this, Trump ultimately won North Carolina by a 1.34% margin over Biden, making him only the second Republican incumbent ever to carry North Carolina and lose re-election after George H. W. Bush in 1992. Trump also became the fourth-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency. This was Trump's narrowest victory in any state, and it was a closer result than his 3.67% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Mitt Romney's 2.04% margin over Barack Obama in 2012. North Carolina was the only state in the 2020 election in which Donald Trump won with under 50% of the vote.[lower-alpha 1] In the 2020 election, North Carolina was 5.8% right of the nation as a whole. The state last voted Democratic in 2008 and furthermore, it had last voted more Republican than neighboring Georgia in 2000.

Trump's victory was, alongside his victory (and actual improvement over 2016) in Florida, one of the upsets of the cycle. Election data website FiveThirtyEight's election forecast had Biden up in both states,[3] albeit by small margins. Similarly, prediction websites Inside Elections, Sabato Crystal Ball, The Economist, and ABC News all had Biden favored in the state.

Primary elections

Presidential preference primaries were held on March 3, 2020 (first cases of COVID-19), for each of the political parties with state ballot access.

Democratic primary

Main article: 2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

Despite speculation that he might seek the Democratic nomination, Roy Cooper, the Governor of North Carolina, declined to run.[4][5]

More information Candidate, Votes ...
This section is an excerpt from 2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary § NCresults.[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—<30%
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 North Carolina Republican presidential primary

The North Carolina Republican Party submitted to the state only the name of incumbent President Donald Trump to be listed on the primary ballot. The campaign of Bill Weld "has written to the [state Board of Elections] asking to be added to the ballot, arguing that his candidacy meets the legal test because he’s received 'widespread news coverage,' raised more than $1.2 million, and has qualified for the primary ballot in six other states," according to the News and Observer.[8] Joe Walsh similarly petitioned the state board of elections. On Dec. 20, 2019, the state board unanimously voted to include both Weld and Walsh on the ballot.[9]

More information Candidate, Votes ...

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
Quick Facts Candidate, Home state ...
More information Candidate, Votes ...

Green primary

Main article: 2020 Green Party presidential primaries
More information Party, Candidate ...

Constitution primary

More information Party, Candidate ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

June 1 – October 31, 2020

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...
More information Hypothetical polling, Poll source ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

More information County, Donald Trump Republican ...

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Congressional District Results:

Trump won 8 of 13 congressional districts.[31]

More information District, Trump ...

Analysis

The rural-urban divide was even more prevalent in North Carolina this election than in past elections. Biden carried eight of North Carolina's ten largest counties (losing only the Charlotte-area suburban counties of Union and Gaston), and overperformed Obama's 2008 margin in the six largest: Wake (Raleigh), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), and Buncombe (Asheville), in which he received 62%, 67%, 61%, 56%, 80%, and 60% of the vote, respectively.[32] Biden furthermore became the first Democrat to carry New Hanover County, home of Wilmington, since 1976. He also flipped Nash County, which had last voted for Obama in 2012, before switching to Trump in 2016, back to the Democratic column. Biden held Trump to a single-digit margin in the Charlotte-area suburban county of Cabarrus, the first time since 1976 that the Republican margin in this county has been less than 10%.

Conversely, Trump held or outperformed his 2016 margin in Robeson, Bladen, Martin, Granville and Gates counties, all counties that had been reliably Democratic in the 20th century and which had voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. Biden thereby became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Robeson County, the largest county in the Lumber River region of the state and the county which had given Jimmy Carter his largest raw vote margin in the state in both 1976 and 1980. Trump picked off neighboring Scotland County, one of only 15 counties he flipped nationally, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and making Biden the first Democrat to win without Scotland since the county's creation in 1899. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the White House without Granville and Gates counties since Grover Cleveland in 1892, the first since Cleveland in 1884 to win without Bladen County, the first since James Buchanan in 1856 to win without Richmond County and the first ever to win without Martin County.[citation needed]

Edison exit polls

More information Demographic subgroup, Biden ...

See also

Notes

General footnotes
    1. There were three states in which Biden won with under 50% of the vote – Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
    2. Candidate withdrew during early voting, shortly before the date of the election.
    3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
    4. Key:
      A – all adults
      RV – registered voters
      LV – likely voters
      V – unclear
    5. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
    6. Standard VI response
    7. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
    8. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
    9. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
    10. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
    11. "Some other candidate" with 2%
    12. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
    13. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
    14. "Someone else" with 6%
    15. "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
    16. "Someone else" with 1%
    17. "Some other candidate" with 2%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
    18. No voters
    19. Blankenship (C) with 2%
    20. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
    21. Includes "Refused"
    22. "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
    23. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
    24. "Another candidate" with 3%
    25. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
    26. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
    27. "Another candidate" with 1%
    28. Blankenship (C) with no voters
    29. "Other third party" with 2%
    30. "Someone else" with 0.6%; Blankenship (C) with 0.2%
    31. Blankenship (C) with 0%
    32. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
    33. "Some other candidate" with 1%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
    34. "Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
    35. If only Biden and Trump were candidates
    36. "Someone else" with 2%
    37. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
    38. Blankenship (C), "No one" and "Other candidate" with no voters
    39. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
    40. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
    41. "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
    42. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
    43. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
    44. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
    45. "Someone else/third party" with 2%
    46. "Another candidate" with 0%
    47. With only Biden, Trump and "another candidate" as options
    48. "Another candidate" with 2%
    49. Blankenship (C) with 1%
    50. "Refused" with 1.4%; "Other" with 0.4%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
    51. "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
    52. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "refused" with 0%
    53. "Someone else" with 1%; Blankenship (C) with 0.5%
    54. "Some other candidate" with 3%
    55. Would not vote with 1%
    56. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
    57. "Other/not sure" with 4%
    58. "No one" with 1%; Blankenship and "Other candidate" with <1%
    59. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
    60. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
    61. Blankenship (C) and "Other" with 0%
    62. Blankenship (C) and would not vote with 1%; "Other" with 0%
    63. "Other candidate" with 3%
    64. Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
    65. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
    66. "Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
    67. "Some other candidate" with 7%
    68. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
    69. "Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
    70. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
    71. "Other candidate" with 7%
    72. "Someone else" with 4%
    73. "Someone else" with 5%
    74. The poll does not have a separate listing for this entry, which is instead added into the 'Other' grouping.
    75. Refused/no answer with 0.2%
    76. Refused/no answer with 0.1%
    77. "Other/it depends" with 6%; "Don't know" with 3%
    78. "It is time for someone else to be President" with 51% as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected if he is the Republican nominee"
    Partisan clients
    1. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
    2. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
    3. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
    4. Piedmont Rising is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
    5. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
    6. The founder of this poll's sponsor had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
    7. This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
    8. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
    9. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
    10. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
    11. Poll sponsored by the North Carolina Republican Party
    12. Poll sponsored by the Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank
    13. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, a group that has exclusively endorsed Democrats

    References

    1. [1]
      Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
    2. [2]
      "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
    3. [3]
      Silver, Nate (August 12, 2020). "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 21, 2021.
    4. [4]
      Dovere, Edward-Isaac (July 18, 2017). "Can Roy Cooper Show Democrats How to Win Again?". Politico. Retrieved August 28, 2017.
    5. [5]
      Moody, Aaron; Specht, Paul A. (March 29, 2018). "Roy Cooper for president? 'I'm sure I'll get some calls.'". The News & Observer. Retrieved July 5, 2018.
    6. [6]
      "NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
    7. [7]
      "Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. August 17, 2020. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
    8. [8]
      News and Observer
    9. [9]
      WRAL.com
    10. [10]
      "NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
    11. [11]
      "North Carolina Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
    12. [12]
      "LOCAL ELECTIONS". ABC 11. March 3, 2020. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
    13. [13]
      "N.C. Board of Elections Approves 2020 Presidential Primary Ballots". Spectrum News. December 20, 2019. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
    14. [14]
      "PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE - GRE (VOTE FOR 1)". er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
    15. [15]
      "PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE - CST (VOTE FOR 1)". er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
    16. [16]
      "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
    17. [17]
      "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
    18. [18]
      "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
    19. [19]
      "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
    20. [20]
      "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
    21. [21]
      2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
    22. [22]
      David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
    23. [23]
      "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
    24. [24]
      "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
    25. [25]
      "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
    26. [26]
      "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
    27. [27]
      Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
    28. [28]
      "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
    29. [29]
      "2020 Election Forecast". fivethirtyeight.com. August 12, 2020. Retrieved October 22, 2020.
    30. [30]
      "November 03, 2020 General Election Results by Contest" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections.
    31. [31]
      "Daily Kos Elections 2012, 2016 & 2020 presidential election results for congressional districts used in 2020 elections". www.dailykos.com.
    32. [32]
      "North Carolina Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 11, 2020.
    33. [33]
      "North Carolina 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
    34. [34]
      "North Carolina Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

    Further reading
    Share this article:

    This article uses material from the Wikipedia article 2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina, and is written by contributors. Text is available under a CC BY-SA 4.0 International License; additional terms may apply. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.