2024_Bulgarian_parliamentary_election

2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

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Early parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria on 9 June 2024,[1][2] to elect members of the National Assembly. The election coincides with the European Parliament election on the same day.[1][2] This Bulgarian parliamentary election was initially scheduled to be held before 12 June 2027; however, as formation and approval of the rotation government scheduled to replace the Denkov Government failed on 20 March 2024, the Bulgarian President, Rumen Radev, announced after having concluded a further second and third failed attempt to form a government among the elected parties, that he would now appoint a new caretaker prime minister and caretaker government tasked to organize a new snap election. The election campaign has been scheduled to run from 10 May until 7 June.[3] The current 49th Parliament will stay in power until the newly elected candidates are sworn in after the election, but its normal working process was suspended by an adopted election recess on 27 April. While on election recess the 49th Parliament may still reconvene for an extraordinary sitting "in exceptional circumstances", as its Rules of Procedure say.[4] The elections will be the country's sixth since 2021, and the fifth snap election in the same timeframe.

Quick Facts Party, Leader ...

Background

Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[5][6] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB—SDS narrowly winning over the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in the 2022 election.[7][8]

On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[9]

Denkov resigned in accordance with the rotation agreement on 5 March, to allow Gabriel to become the new Prime Minister.[10] On 20 March 2024, the planned government rotation and signing of a renewed government failed[why?].[11][12][13] Negotiations within the first negotiation mandate ensued across the end of March,[14][15][16][17] but failed to produce any workable governments[why?].[18][19][20]

Two further rounds of negotiations will follow. The constitution declares that after a first failed attempt of government formation, the President must then ask the second-largest party in parliament (PP–DB) to try and form a government; and if this also fails he shall then give a final third attempt to any remaining party of his choosing.[21] If all three stages of negotiations fail, it is likely that elections would be held on 9 June 2024, coinciding with the European Parliament election on the same day.[22]

PP–DB declared on 26 March, that they would accept giving a second negotiation mandate a try, but it would be limited to a negotiation attempt to form a government together with GERB–SDS that fully respected their original rotation agreement of 2023. The proposed negotiation framework would be for GERB–SDS to sign the reform agreement negotiated with PP–DB, while GERB–SDS nominates a mutually acceptable next Prime Minister, and the current structure of the cabinet has to be preserved. If GERB–SDS by a written letter refused this PP–DB proposal, the second negotiation mandate would immediately be returned unfulfilled to the President.[23] A few hours later, GERB–SDS refused this proposal and called for early elections.[24]

On 27 March, PP–DB officially returned the second negotiation mandate incomplete to the President, requesting that the President schedule early legislative elections on the same day as the 2024 European Parliament election.[25][26] President Radev decided the following day to give the third mandate for an attempted government formation to ITN, the smallest party in the 49th National Assembly.[27] The third mandate was immediately returned incomplete by ITN, without wasting any time on fruitless negotiation attempts.[28]

Under Article 99 of the Constitution, when no agreement on formation of a government has been reached after all three attempted negotiation mandates have been tried, the President, in consultation with the parliamentary groups and on the proposal of the candidate for caretaker prime minister, appoints a caretaker government and schedules new early elections within two months from its inauguration.[29] On 29 March, the President appointed the Chairman of the National Audit Office, Dimitar Glavchev, as a candidate for caretaker prime minister;[30] and he was granted a one week deadline of until 6 April to propose the composition of the caretaker government.[31]

On 5 April, Dimitar Glavchev presented his proposal for the caretaker government,[32] and after consultations being held the same day on whether it could be approved by the representatives of all political parties from the 49th National Assembly,[33] the President announced he would sign a decree on 9 April 2024 approving the caretaker PM and his caretaker government, and at the same time he would sign a decree setting the date for new parliamentary elections to 9 June 2024.[34] On 9 April, caretaker prime minister Glavchev and his cabinet was confirmed and inaugurated by the National Assembly,[35] and the election date was set by presidential decree to 9 June 2024.[1]

The Central Election Commission subsequently adopted a schedule for the elections, regulating that the election campaign will begin at 12 am on 10 May and will end at midnight on 7 June.[3]

The current 49th Parliament will stay in session at least until the election campaign begins, where a decision of election recess is expected to be adopted by Parliament. According to MP Ivaylo Vulchev [bg], some of his colleagues even considered — to his dismay — that Parliament should not go on election recess, but continue meeting during the election campaign while however only allowing discussed topics within the realm of "such that it does not look as if someone has started his election campaign from the rostrum."[36] The current 49th Parliament suspended its normal working process by an adopted election recess on 27 April. While on election recess the 49th Parliament may still reconvene for an extraordinary sitting "in exceptional circumstances", as its Rules of Procedure say. The yet to be elected 50th Parliament will replace the 49th Parliament as soon as the newly elected members are sworn in after the election.[4]

Parties

Parliamentary parties

The table below lists the political party groups represented in the 49th National Assembly.

  1. GERB 66, SDS 2, DG 1
  2. PP 36, DaB! 13, DSB 10, ZD 3, Volt 1, SEK 1

Contesting parties and coalitions

Bellow is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.[37]

More information #, Party or coalition ...

Campaign

Campaign slogans

The following list present the official campaign slogans of some of the major parties that contested the 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election:

More information Party/alliance, Original slogan ...

Allegations of corruption and improper political behaviour

Customs Agency Scandal

On 3 April, shortly after the breakdown of government formations, the head of the Customs Agency, Petya Bankova, along with her deputy, and two Haskovo residents (Marin and Stefan Dimitrov) were arrested in relation to their alleged participation in an organised criminal group for the contraband of black market tobacco products through Bulgaria, in a joint operation by DANS and the Commission to Combat Corruption.[42] Shortly after the arrests, Secretary of the Ministry of Interior, Zhivko Kotsev, was announced to have resigned, with PP-DB leaders insinuating that his resignation was likely to have been coerced.[43] A day later, Kotsev announced that he was withdrawing his resignation in a joint-briefing with acting Prime Minister, Nikolay Denkov and claimed that his resignation had been coerced.[44]

In the following days, a number of leaks were made to the press, which included images of the suspects—Stefan and Marin Dimitrov—together with PP MP and former Minister of Interior, Boyko Rashkov as well as incumbent Secretary of the Ministry of Interior, Zhivko Kotsev.[45] The parliament formed a commission which aimed to investigate the scandal, controversially establishing one of its aims as being to "investigate the role of Finance Minister Asen Vasilev" in the corruption scandal.[46]

On 11 April, the comission heard the testimony of incumbent Minister of Interior, Kalin Stoyanov, who confirmed reports that Boyko Rashkov had been acquainted with two of the suspects in the case and claimed that Asen Vasilev, among others, had attempted to pressure him to (re-)appoint Hadzhiev as head of the Haskovo Police Department.[47] Stoyanov's testimony was met with criticism from PP-DB figures, specifically, Boyko Rashkov, who alleged in an interview with Radio Free Europe, that Stoyanov was also involved in the scandal and that the customs agency corruption case was meant as a cover up other notable cases of impropriety within the Bulgarian legal system (ex. the recent assassination of criminal figure, Martin Bozhanov).[48]

The committee also included testimony from DANS Chief Plamen Tonchev, who was criticised by PP-DB MPs for admitting that the case against Bankova had been ongoing for a number of years, claiming, therefore, that her arrest had been made intentionally prior to the election to attack their party.[49] Vasilev also appeared before the committee, denying any wrong doing or connections with the named suspects.[50]

On 25 April, the committee published its report, which claimed to prove Asen Vasilev's role within the scheme.[51]

The events of the scandal, despite occurring outside the election campaign period, were identified by some analysts as signalling the "beginning" of the pre-election campaign.[52] Additionally, the scandal was often used in the campaign, particularly by ITN, in order to attack PP-DB.[53]

"Turkish Stream" Gas Pipeline scandal

In early March, an alleged copy of the roadmap for the construction of the TurkStream (also known as the "Balkan Stream) gas pipeline through Bulgaria was released by the investigative newspaper, BG Elves.[54] The alleged leak seemed to suggest that the main role in the construction of the pipeline was undertaken by Russian firms, additionally it demonstrated that the pipelines construction, which had been approved by the Third Borisov Government directly served Russian interests.[55]

The leak led to criticism of GERB by PP-DB, accusing them of helping Russia build a new pathway circumventing Ukraine, thus enabling the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[56] A parliamentary committee was formed to investigate the leak, however, its work ended up being hindered due to partisan gridlock between PP-DB and GERB, with PP-DB alleging that GERB was attempting to obstruct the committee's work.[57]

Audio-tape leaks

As had occured previously during the government formation of the Denkov Government, audio-leaks relating to the PP leadership occured in the run up to the election. One audio-leak was published on the online newspaper, Afera, which was allegedly from a meeting of the PP leadership prior to the 2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election, in which PP leaders allegedly discussed methods of illegally financing their election campaign.[58] While PP-DB representatives did not deny the veracity of the recording, they claimed that the tapes had been taken out of context and were proof that Bulgarian security services were participating in a campaign against the party.[59]

Borisov-Peevski Billboard

As part of their campaign, PP-DB released a billboard containing the image of former Prime Minister Denkov, on one side, and the leaders of GERB and DPS, Borisov and Peevski, on the other, with a sign asking "who do you want to be Prime Minister?". The sign was promptly removed after a legal complaint by GERB, who claimed the billboard denigrated the person of Boyko Borisov.[60] In a campaign meeting, Borisov called Denkov's behaviour as offensive, and claimed that this demonstrated that Denkov was unfit to be Prime Minister.[61]

Public finances

During the election campaign, GERB, specifically Delyan Dobrev consistently criticised the policies of Asen Vasilev, accusing him of increasing the public debt and increasing inflation, while not doing enough to attract investment.[62] Borisov declared that if GERB were to come to power they would implement a more "strict" fiscal policy.[63]

PP-DB, on the other hand, defended the track record of Asen Vasilev, pointing to an increase in incomes.[64] They further accused GERB of trying to add spending outside of that set aside by the budget in order to sabotage Bulgaria's entrance into the Eurozone.[65]

Parties on the left, such as BSP, Levitsata and Solidarity Bulgaria, generally supported the implementation of a progressive tax system, with BSP, for example, advocating for a tax break for all those under 26.[66]

The right-wing coalition, Blue Bulgaria, called for less state involvement in the economy, with government finance instead being focused on healthcare, education and security.[67]

Foreign policy

One of the key policy issues which dominated the elections was Bulgaria's position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A number of parties (specifically, Revival, BSP, Levitsata! and Soldiarity Bulgaria) advocated for Bulgaria to not send lethal aid to Ukraine and supported the removal of the sanctions against the Russian Federation.

Post-election government formation

Due to the continous political instability in Bulgaria, ever since the April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election, post-election government formations were one of the key topics of the election campaign.

GERB-SDS, shortly after the announcing the end of negotiations for a successor to the Denkov Government, had indicated that they would re-initiate negotiations with PP–DB, albeit conditional on a "new approach" from the PP–DB leadership.[68] However, GERB's tone towards PP–DB shifted throughout the pre-campaign period, especially after PP–DB supported a motion to remove Rosen Zhelyazkov as speaker of the National Assembly, with Borisov openly stating following the vote that he did not see renewed cooperation with PP–DB as likely.[69] Inspite of this, GERB leader, Boyko Borisov, also made clear that GERB would not form a coalition government solely with DPS.[70] On the 24th of May, Borisov announced that GERB should take a "leading role" in any future government.[71]

PP–DB have expressed a willingness to negotiate a coalition government with GERB following the upcoming elections, however excluded the possibility of any involvement from Delyan Peevski in a future government, thus excluding the Movement for Rights and Freedoms.[72] During an interview with BTV, former Prime Minister, Nikolay Denkov, stated that PP-DB would not form a government which involved either Boyko Borisov or Delyan Peevski.[73]

DPS co-leader, Peevski, on his part, did not exclude DPS' participation in either a GERB-led or PP–DB led government, claiming he had a stable working relationship with both PP leader, Kiril Petkov, and GERB leader, Boyko Borisov.[74]

A number of parties promised during the campaign period promised they would not enter any informal governing arrangements with GERB, DPS or PP–DB. Specifically, BSP leader, Korneliya Ninova, highlighted her party as the "only one" which had not engaged in any such deals with GERB.[75] Solidarity Bulgaria MP-Candidate, and Stand Up.BG leader, Maya Manolova promised that Solidarity, if they entered parliament, would not govern with GERB, DPS or PP–DB.[76]

Reliability of election results

Opinion polls

Local regression of polls conducted, excluding "none of the above"

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority.

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
  1. Includes VMRO at 1.3%
  2. Includes VMRO at 1.1%
  3. Includes VMRO at 1.5%, CENTER at 1.4% and Citizens Block at 0.7%
  4. Includes VMRO at 1.1%
  5. As the full data for this poll was not released, it is possible that it includes undecided and uncertain voters. Recalculating the data to only include the numbers for the listed parties may be advised. Market Links often include undecided voters in their final results
  6. ITN are given seats in the Assembly despite being seemingly below the threshold as None of the above votes do not count towards the threshold.
  7. Justice for Bulgaria with 1.0%, "Other" with 1.0%
  8. This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages
  9. ISBG, contested the 2023 parliamentary elections with the Left! and went on to run with Solidarity Bulgaria
  10. Result of NDSV and KOD, two members of the Blue Bulgaria coalition

References

  1. Matey Todorov (9 April 2024). "UPDATED: President Radev Schedules Elections for June 9". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
  2. "Bulgaria to Hold Simultaneous Elections on June 9: President Radev's Decree". radiomoldova.md. 5 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  3. Desislava Toncheva (9 April 2024). "Central Election Commission Adopts Schedule for Upcoming June 2-in-1 Elections". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
  4. Lyubomir Gigov (13 May 2024). "49th National Assembly Adopts 148 Laws, 286 Resolutions, April 2023 - May 2024". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  5. "Bulgaria gears for its fifth election in two years on April 2". Reuters. 24 January 2023. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  6. Network, EURACTIV (3 April 2023). "Bulgarian elections: Pro-Russia party may 'force' a pro-EU coalition". www.euractiv.com. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
  7. Denitsa Koseva (20 March 2024). "Bulgaria thrown into new political crisis, snap general election likely". BNE Intellinews. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  8. Krassen Nikolov (20 March 2024). "Bulgarian cabinet rotation falls, snap election looms". Euractiv. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  9. Desislava Toncheva (20 March 2024). "Outgoing PM Denkov: We Can Sit at the Negotiation Table and Finish Them in a Reasonable Way". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  10. Yoanna Vodenova (21 March 2024). "Wrap-up: CC-DB Ask GERB to Offer Exit from Crisis "They Created", GERB Expects "Political Apology" from CC-DB". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 21 March 2024.
  11. Petya Petrova (22 March 2024). "Outgoing PM: "Mariya Gabriel Made Huge Political Mistake, We Should All Look for Way Out"". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  12. Metodi Yordanov (22 March 2024). "UPDATED: GERB-UDF's PM-designate: New Early Elections Must Be Prevented". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  13. Lyubomir Gigov (24 March 2024). "Movement for Rights and Freedoms Will Decline Third Cabinet-Forming Mandate, Wants Early Elections Pronto". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  14. Nikolay Zabov (24 March 2024). "UPDATED: Gabriel Won't Run for PM, Clears Way for Early Elections". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  15. Roumen Yanovski (26 March 2024). "Parliament Ends First Mandate for Government Formation". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  16. "A Failed Government Mandate: What's Next". Bulgarian News Agency. 25 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  17. "Bulgarian FM Gabriel abandons attempt to form cabinet as negotiations break down". Television Poland (TVP). 24 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  18. Dimitrina Solakova (26 March 2024). "UPDATED: CC-DB Proposes to GERB-UDF that Second Cabinet-forming Mandate Be National, Common". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  19. "UPDATED: GERB Turns Down CC-DB Last Offer for Government". Bulgarian News Agency. 26 March 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  20. "President Picks National Audit Office Head for Caretaker PM-Designate". Bulgarian News Agency. 29 March 2024. Retrieved 29 March 2024.
  21. Yoana Vodenicharova (30 March 2024). "President Radev Assigns PM-designate Glavchev to Propose Caretaker Cabinet Lineup". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
  22. "UPDATED: PM-Designate Proposes Caretaker Cabinet". Bulgarian News Agency. 5 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  23. "UPDATED: PM-Designate, President, Parliamentary Parties Hold Talks on Caretaker Cabinet". Bulgarian News Agency. 5 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  24. Yoanna Vodenova (5 April 2024). "UPDATED: European and Snap Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria to be Held Simultaneously on June 9". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  25. Petya Petrova (11 April 2024). "MP Ivaylo Valchev: Parliament Should Not Work During Election Campaign". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 11 April 2024.
  26. "Откриване на предизборната кампания на ГЕРБ-СДС". Youtube (in Bulgarian). 10 May 2024. Retrieved 13 May 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  27. "Възходът на България" (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 13 May 2023.

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