"Chances" is a song by American boy band Backstreet Boys. It was released on November 9, 2018, as the second single from DNA, their ninth studio album (eighth in the United States). The song was written by Shawn Mendes, Fiona Bevan, Casey Smith, Geoff Warburton, Scott Harris, and producers Ryan Tedder and Zach Skelton. "Chances" peaked at number nine on the Billboard Dance Club Songs chart, and number 19 on the Adult Top 40. McLean directed an accompanying music video and René Elizondo Jr. and depicted two dancers performing inside Union Station.

AJ McLean first met Ryan Tedder in 2003, where they worked together on the Backstreet Boys' 2009 studio album This Is Us and the former musician's debut studio album Have It All (2010).^[1] After several years, McLean suggested Tedder to send several of his written songs to the Backstreet Boys. One of the songs included "Chances," which the band immediately gravitated towards.^[2] It was written by Shawn Mendes, Fiona Bevan, Casey Smith, Geoff Warburton, Scott Harris, and producers Tedder, and Zach Skelton.^[3] The song and accompanying music video were simultaneously released on November 9, 2018, which followed the announcement of the DNA World Tour.^[4][5]

"Chances" is a pop song. Fist-pumping synthesizers are consistently used as the Backstreet Boys ponder over the chorus, "What are the chances that we'd end up dancing? Like 2 in a million, like once in a life".^[6] In an interview with Billboard in 2018, McLean explained that "Chances" is similar to their previous 2018 single, "Don't Go Breaking My Heart", but acknowledged that it also felt distinct. He described the lyrics as "more of that realistic love story about chance, to find that person in the most precarious of scenarios".^[2] However, Backstreet Boys member Brian Littrell stated that "both songs are completely different" in a 2019 interview with Entertainment Weekly.^[7]

Mike Wass of Idolator described "Chances" as "another irresistible, vaguely retro pop-anthem" containing perfect vocal harmonies.^[6] Neil Z. Yeung of AllMusic praised "Chances" and "Don't Go Breaking My Heart", stating that both songs are "some of Backstreet's finest, familiar in their delivery yet with a finger on the mainstream pulse of 2019".^[8] Writing for Rolling Stone, Jon Dolan stated that the song is "plaintively throbbing".^[9] Josh Hurst of Flood Magazine referred to "Chances" as "slightly anthemic", but not jarring.^[10]

"Chances" peaked at number seven on the US Billboard Bubbling Under Hot 100 on November 24, 2018.^[11] The song also reached number nine on the US Dance Club Songs on the chart dated March 9, 2019,^[12] as well as number 19 on the Adult Top 40 chart dated January 26, 2019.^[13] It peaked on the Canadian Hot 100 at number 55,^[14] and was certified gold by Music Canada (MC) for selling over 40,000 equivalent-sales units in Canada.^[15] "Chances" charted at number 63 on the Official German Charts,^[16] and at number 82 on the Schweizer Hitparade in Switzerland.^[17]

The Backstreet Boys performed "Chances" on the 15th season of The Voice on November 13, 2018.^[22][23] They also appeared on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon in chicken costumes on January 24, 2019 while they performed "Everybody (Backstreet's Back)" on the Manhattan streets and Rockefeller sidewalks,^[24][25][26] before performing "Chances" in matching black and gray outfits.^[27] The song was also included on the setlist of the DNA World Tour, which supported their studio album DNA.^[28]

Credits adapted from the liner notes of DNA.^[3]