Zhi Ping Pian and theory on population growth
Hong's time experienced one of the fastest expansions of population in Chinese history. With the promotion of New World crops such as corn, Chinese population tripled from 100 million (1651–1661) to 300 million (1790). The population boom resulted in a series of socioeconomic problems, and caused concerns among the Mandarins. In 1791, Qianlong Emperor expressed his worry to the court officials that the resources might not be able to support the growing population. Two years later, Hong published Zhi Ping Pian, the 26th essay of his anthology Opinions (意言).
In Zhi Ping Pian, Hong points to the tension between the growth of the means of subsistence and the growing population. He writes that the tension would be relieved by disasters, famine, and plagues.
"Speaking of households, the number of which ... there are 20 times more than a hundred years ago ... Some people may propose that there would be wild land to cultivate and spare space for housing. But they can only be doubled or tripled, or at most increased five times, whereas the population at the same time could be ten to twenty times larger. Therefore housing and crop fields tend to be in scarcity, while the population tends to be excessive at all time. Given the fact that some households become monopolists, there is no wonder that so many have suffered cold and hunger and even died here and there ... How does Heaven deal with the tension? Flood, drought, and pestilence are the means of Heaven to temper the problem."
Hong points out that government can mediate the problem by policies like adjusting tax, encouraging colonization, and enhancing the social safety net. However, he expresses his concern about the limits of human policy in addressing such an inherent structural dilemma.