Maes–Garreau_law
Maes–Garreau law
Rule of thumb about prediction dates
The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it".[1] Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.[1]
It has been referred to as a "law of human nature",[2] although Kelly's evidence is anecdotal.