Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.^[1] One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.^[2][3]

Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.^[2] Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.^[4] Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.^[4]

Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.^[4] The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.^[5]

In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions.^[6] The following month, Metaculus introduced the Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the COVID-19 outbreak.^[7]

Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015.^[2][4]

In June 2017, the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions.^[8] The Metaculus Prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.^[9]

In 2021, Metaculus received an Effective altruism infrastructure fund grant worth $300k.^[10] In 2022, Metaculus received a $5.5m grant from Open Philanthropy.^[11] In October 2022, Metaculus received $20k funding from the FTX future fund, 3 weeks before the bankruptcy of FTX.^[12]

• PredictIt
• Prediction market
• Futarchy