2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin

2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

Election


The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.[2] There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.[3] Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, so Baldwin was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

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Hypothetical polling

Results

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Republican primary

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.[15] Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.[16] He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.[17]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

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  • + Commissioned by Eric Hovde
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Endorsements

Jeff Fitzgerald
Eric Hovde
Mark Neumann
Tommy Thompson

Politicians

Celebrities and political commentators[50]

Cabinet officials[50]

  • Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
  • Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
  • Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators[50]

Political organization officials[50]

  • David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union[citation needed]
  • Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
  • Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
  • Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials[50]

  • Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
  • Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations[50]

  • Wisconsin Right to Life
  • Dairy Business Association
  • Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
  • Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
  • Milwaukee Police Association
  • Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
  • Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
  • Wisconsin Grocers Association
  • Wisconsin Restaurant Association
  • Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
  • Wisconsin Health Care Association
  • Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
  • GOProud[54]

Results

Results by county
  Thompson
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Hovde
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Neumann
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
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General election

Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

Candidates

Debates

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

Fundraising

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Top contributors

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Top industries

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Predictions

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling
with Tammy Baldwin
with Russ Feingold
with Steve Kagen
with Ron Kind
with Herb Kohl

Results

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Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

By congressional districts

Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[65]

More information District, Thompson ...

Aftermath

Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."[66]

See also


References

  1. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  2. Glauber, Bill (November 3, 2010). "Kohl says he'll work with Johnson". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  3. Hall, Dee (November 4, 2010). "Feingold won't seek office in 2012, official says". Chippewa Herald. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  4. Burns, Alexander (May 17, 2011). "Barrett closes door on Senate speculation". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  5. Sullivan, Sean (January 18, 2012). "Falk Announces Candidacy in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race". National Journal. Archived from the original on January 22, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
  6. Thompson, Krissah (August 19, 2011). "Russ Feingold not running in 2012". The Washington Post.
  7. "Baldwin kicks off jobs tour; receives Kagen endorsement". Wispolitics.com. January 5, 2012. Archived from the original on May 8, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
  8. Catanese, David (September 15, 2011). "Rep. Kind says no to Senate run". Politico. Retrieved September 15, 2011.
  9. "Baldwin Campaign: Rep. Gwen Moore endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". WisPolitics.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  10. "Former Bucyrus head unlikely to jump into races next year". WisPolitics.com. November 18, 2011. Archived from the original on December 11, 2011. Retrieved November 21, 2011.
  11. "Canvass Results for 2012 Partisan Primary - 8/14/2012" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 29, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  12. Gilbert, Craig (April 25, 2009). "Ryan shines as GOP seeks vision". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
  13. Catanese, David (May 16, 2011). "Ryan telling GOPers he's unlikely to run". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  14. Marley, Patrick (October 11, 2011). "Jeff Fitzgerald announces Senate bid". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved October 11, 2011.
  15. "Hovde emerges as new Senate candidate". Leader-Telegram. Archived from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved February 27, 2012.
  16. Republican Neumann announces Senate run Archived September 28, 2011, at the Wayback Machine WBAY-TV. August 29, 2011. Retrieved August 29, 2011
  17. Kyle Trygstad. (August 29, 2011)Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann Enters Wisconsin Senate Race Roll Call. Retrieved August 29, 2011
  18. "Tommy Thompson Makes Wisconsin Senate Bid Official". September 19, 2011. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
  19. "State Senator Lasee Drops Out Of U.S. Senate Race". Channel3000.com. Archived from the original on February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 15, 2012.
  20. "Kip Smith enters U.S. Senate race". onpolitics. WLUK-TV. Archived from the original on July 18, 2012. Retrieved January 1, 2023.
  21. "Green backs Thompson for Senate". WLUK-TV. Associated Press. September 16, 2011. Archived from the original on January 23, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2011.
  22. "CFG PAC endorses Kevin Cramer in North Dakota". Archived from the original on October 6, 2011. Retrieved October 12, 2011.
  23. Blumenthal, Paul (November 11, 2011). "HUFFPOST FUNDRACE -- Perry Spends Big". The Huffington Post.
  24. Joseph, Cameron (November 12, 2011). "Sen. Coburn endorses Neumann in Wis. Senate race".
  25. "Mark Neumann Wins Two Key Endorsements For Senate Race". Archived from the original on March 17, 2016. Retrieved February 27, 2012.
  26. "My Election Central". Wisconsin Right to Life. Archived from the original on July 23, 2012. Retrieved July 23, 2012.
  27. "Endorsements". Archived from the original on June 9, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  28. "Endorsements". Archived from the original on June 9, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  29. Abby Livingston. "Tommy Thompson Picks Up Senate Endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 17, 2011.
  30. Walker, Don (December 15, 2011). "Huckabee endorses Thompson, slams Club for Growth". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on January 11, 2012. Retrieved December 18, 2011.
  31. "See the full list". Archived from the original on July 25, 2012. Retrieved July 25, 2012.
  32. Don Walker. "'The Nuge' endorses Tommy Thompson". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on March 30, 2012.
  33. "The Coveted Dick Morris Endorsement". BuzzFeed News. Archived from the original on August 11, 2018.
  34. "GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements - GOProud, Inc". October 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 25, 2012. Retrieved September 17, 2017.
  35. "Kexel Announces Run for US Senate" (PDF). Wispolitics.com. April 20, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  36. "Nimrod Allen III Independent Candidate for U.S. Senate" (PDF). Wispolitics.com. July 20, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  37. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  38. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  39. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  40. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  41. Alex Roarty (September 26, 2013). "Can Republicans Avoid the Next Todd Akin?". National Journal. Retrieved September 30, 2013.

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