2016_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election

2016 Japanese House of Councillors election

2016 Japanese House of Councillors election

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House of Councillors elections were held in Japan on Sunday 10 July 2016 to elect 121 of the 242 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years. As a result of the election, the Liberal Democratic PartyKomeito coalition gained ten seats for a total of 145 (60% of all seats in the house), the largest coalition achieved since the size of the house was set at 242 seats.[1]

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76 members were elected by single non-transferable vote (SNTV) and first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting in 45 multi- and single-member prefectural electoral districts; for the first time, there were two combined (gōku) single-member districts consisting of two prefectures each, Tottori-Shimane and Tokushima-Kōchi. This change and several other reapportionments were part of an electoral reform law passed by the Diet in July 2015 designed to reduce the maximum ratio of malapportionment in the House of Councillors below 3.[2][3] The nationwide district which elects 48 members by D'Hondt proportional representation with most open lists remained unchanged.

The elections were the first national election after the 2015 change to the Public Offices Election Act, which allowed people from 18 years of age to vote in national, prefectural and municipal elections and in referendums. The legal voting age prior to the change was 20.[4]

Background

The term of members elected in the 2010 regular election (including those elected in subsequent by-elections or as runners-up) ends on July 25, 2016. Under the "Public Offices Election Act" (kōshoku-senkyo-hō), the regular election must be held within 30 days before that date, or under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, between 24 and 30 days after the closure of the session and thus potentially somewhat after the actual end of term.[5] The election date was July 10 with the deadline for nominations and the start of legal campaigning 18 days before the election (i.e. June 22).[6]

Prior to the election, the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito controlled a two-thirds super-majority of seats in the House of Representatives but did not control a similar super-majority of seats in the House of Councillors, necessary to initiate amendments of the Constitution of Japan.[7] In order to deny a super-majority to the LDP and other pro-amendment parties, the parties opposed to amending the constitution (Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party, Social Democratic Party and People's Life Party) agreed to field a single candidate in each single-seat district, leading to a number of one-on-one races between the LDP and an opposition candidate (most of which the LDP ultimately won).[8] Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, historically a vocal proponent of constitutional revision, generally avoided discussing the constitution during the campaign, instead focusing on his "Abenomics" economic policies.[9]

On the eve of the election, Gerald Curtis described the race as "one of the dullest in recent memory," pointing out that "never in Japan's postwar history has the political opposition been as enfeebled as it is now... That's why widespread public disappointment with the government's economic policies hasn't hurt Mr. Abe politically. The prevailing sentiment is that he has done better than his predecessors, and replacing him with another LDP leader, let alone an opposition coalition government, would only make matters worse—especially now that the global economy is in turmoil."[10]

Pre-election composition

As of the official announcement (kōji, the candidate registration deadline and when the campaign starts) on 22 June (count by Yomiuri Shimbun):[11]

37 59 8 2 1 9 50 11 65
O not up Main opposition seats up RO RO up V K up LDP seats up K LDP seats not up

In the class of members facing re-election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō had a combined 60 of 121 seats, slightly short of a majority (as of June 2016).[12] The main opposition Democratic Party held 47 seats.[12] As the coalition held 77 seats not being contested at this election, they only needed to retain 44 seats in the election to maintain their majority in the House. The LDP, which held 117 seats alone, had to gain five seats to reach a majority of its own and make the coalition with Kōmeitō unnecessary. In the other direction, the governing coalition would have to lose 16 seats or more to forfeit its overall majority in the House of Councillors and face a technically divided Diet. However, as independents and minor opposition groups might be willing to support the government on a regular basis without inclusion in the cabinet, the losses required to face an actual divided Diet may have been much higher. If the Diet were divided after the election, the coalition's two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives could still override the House of Councillors and pass legislation, but certain Diet decisions, notably the approval of certain nominations by the cabinet such as public safety commission members or Bank of Japan governor, would require the cooperation of at least part of the opposition or an expansion of the ruling coalition.

Among the members facing re-election were House of Councillors President Masaaki Yamazaki (LDP, Fukui), Vice President Azuma Koshiishi (DPJ, Yamanashi), Justice Minister Mitsuhide Iwaki (LDP, Fukushima) and Okinawa and Science Minister Aiko Shimajiri (LDP, Okinawa).

Policy effects

The election gave a two-thirds super-majority in the upper house to the four parties in favor of constitutional revision. After the election, Abe publicly acknowledged that constitutional revision would be "not so easy" and said "I expect the discussion will be deepened." The Chinese government voiced concern about the result, while South Korean newspaper Munhwa Ilbo opined that the election results "opened the door for a Japan that can go to war."[9]

Abe announced a major economic stimulus package following the election, leading to a spike in the Japanese stock markets.[13]

District reapportionment

The following districts saw a change in their representation within the House at this election. One set of reforms were introduced in 2012 and first took effect at the 2013 election; the districts affected by the 2015 reforms are shaded.

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Opinion polls

Seat projections

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Cabinet approval / disapproval ratings

Approval (blue) and Disapproval (red) Ratings for Second and Third Abe Cabinet

Results

A record 28 women won seats in the compared to 26 in 2007 and 22 in 2013.[32] Among them, actress Junko Mihara won a seat representing Kanagawa Prefecture for the LDP.[33]

Yoshimi Watanabe, former leader of Your Party, returned to the Diet in this election, winning a seat as part of Osaka Ishin no Kai.[34] Justice minister Mitsuhide Iwaki lost his seat in Fukushima Prefecture to an opposition-supported candidate.[35] Aiko Shimajiri, state minister for Okinawan affairs, lost her seat to former Ginowan, Okinawa mayor Yoichi Iha, a critic of the US military presence in Okinawa supported by a coalition of opposition parties. This was viewed by some analysts as a setback for the proposed relocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.[35][36] Former Olympic volleyball player Kentaro Asahi won a seat representing the Tokyo at-large district for the LDP.[37] On the same day, journalist Satoshi Mitazono defeated incumbent Yuichiro Ito in a gubernatorial election in Kagoshima Prefecture. Mitazono campaigned on a platform focused on suspension of the Sendai Nuclear Power Plant.[38]

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By electoral district

Abbreviations and translations used in this table for (nominating – endorsing) parties:

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  1. incumbent from Tottori
  2. retroactively nominated by the LDP on election night
  3. seats up 2016 from House of Councillors website as of June 2016

References

  1. "Ruling camp holds over 60% of seats". The Japan News. Yomiuri Shimbun. 11 July 2016. Archived from the original on 20 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  2. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, August 5, 2015: Changes to House of Councillors electoral districts, Summary (Japanese)
  3. e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法 Archived 2016-07-29 at the Wayback Machine, chapter 5 (election dates), article 32 (regular elections)
  4. "Abe camp gains supermajority needed to alter constitution". Nikkei Asian Review. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 13 July 2016.
  5. Rich, Motoko (11 July 2016). "Japan Election, a Landslide for Abe, Could Allow a Bolder Military". The New York Times. Retrieved 13 July 2016.
  6. Curtis, Gerald (26 June 2016). "Japan's Election Offers Little Choice". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  7. Yomiuri Shimbun: [www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/sangiin/2016/ 2016 election results]
  8. House of Councillors: Members by caucus, class, parallel election segment and gender (Japanese) Archived 2016-04-07 at the Wayback Machine The governing coalition's number included President of the House Masaaki Yamazaki, who sat as an independent. The Democratic Party's number included Vice President Azuma Koshiishi and "Shin-Ryokufukai" members.
  9. "改憲4党、3分の2に迫る 朝日新聞・参院選情勢調査". Asahi Shimbun. 2016-07-07. Archived from the original on 2016-07-07. Retrieved 2016-07-07.
  10. "改憲勢力2/3の勢い 野党共闘伸びず". Mainichi Shimbun. 2016-07-06. Archived from the original on 2016-07-11. Retrieved 2016-07-07.
  11. "改憲4党、3分の2強まる 参院選終盤情勢". Chunichi Shimbun. 2016-07-06. Archived from the original on 2016-07-06. Retrieved 2016-07-07.
  12. "ビッグデータが導き出した第24回参議院選挙の議席数予測". ヤフー株式会社. 2016-07-18. Archived from the original on 2016-07-06. Retrieved 2016-07-08.
  13. "Female candidates break Upper House election record with 28 seats". The Japan Times. Kyodo. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  14. "Actress Mihara wins seat for LDP in Kanagawa Prefecture". The Japan Times. Kyodo. 10 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  15. "Once ousted from Diet, Watanabe makes comeback with Upper House win". The Japan Times. Kyodo. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  16. "Cabinet duo loses; LDP out of Okinawa". The Japan News. Yomiuri Shimbun. 11 July 2016. Archived from the original on 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  17. Johnston, Eric (10 July 2016). "Okinawan minister Shimajiri ousted from Upper House by former Ginowan mayor". The Japan Times. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  18. "朝日健太郎氏、当選 自民・東京 元ビーチバレー代表". Asahi Shimbun. 11 July 2016. Archived from the original on 6 August 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
  19. Negishi, Mayumi (11 July 2016). "Japan Elections: Antinuclear Candidate's Win Poses Risk to Plant Restarts". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 13 July 2016.
  20. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Hokkaidō
  21. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Aomori
  22. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Iwate
  23. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Miyagi
  24. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Akita
  25. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Yamagata
  26. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Fukushima
  27. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Ibaraki
  28. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Tochigi
  29. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Gunma
  30. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Saitama
  31. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Chiba
  32. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Tokyo Archived 2016-10-22 at the Wayback Machine
  33. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Kanagawa
  34. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Niigata
  35. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Toyama
  36. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Ishikawa
  37. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Fukui
  38. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Yamanashi
  39. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Nagano
  40. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Gifu
  41. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Shizuoka
  42. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Aichi
  43. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Mie
  44. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Shiga
  45. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Kyōto
  46. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Ōsaka Archived 2018-10-05 at the Wayback Machine
  47. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Hyōgo Archived 2018-10-05 at the Wayback Machine
  48. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Nara
  49. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Wakayama
  50. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Tottori-Shimane Archived 2018-07-10 at the Wayback Machine
  51. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Okayama
  52. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Hiroshima
  53. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Yamaguchi
  54. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Tokushima-Kōchi
  55. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Kagawa
  56. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Ehime
  57. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Fukuoka
  58. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Saga
  59. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Nagasaki
  60. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Kumamoto
  61. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Ōita
  62. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Miyazaki
  63. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Kagoshima
  64. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: Okinawa
  65. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, LDP Archived 2018-10-07 at the Wayback Machine
  66. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, DP Archived 2018-09-20 at the Wayback Machine
  67. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Kōmeitō Archived 2017-10-01 at the Wayback Machine
  68. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, JCP Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  69. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Ōsaka ishin no kai Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  70. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, SDP
  71. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Seikatsu no tō Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  72. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Nippon no kokoro o taisetsu ni suru tō Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  73. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Shiji seitō nashi Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  74. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Shintō kaikaku Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  75. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Kokumin ikari no koe Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  76. Yomiuri Online, 2016 election results: proportional election, Kōfukujitsugentō Archived 2018-01-26 at the Wayback Machine

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