2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri
See also: 2016 United States Senate elections
The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.
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County results
Congressional district results
Township results Precinct resultsBlunt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kander: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.[1][2] Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state.
Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.[3]
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
- Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)[6][7][8]
Declined
- Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative from 2001 to 2013 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[9][10]
- John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)[11]
- John Lamping, former state senator[12]
Endorsements
Roy Blunt
- Presidents
- U.S. Senators
- John Cornyn, Texas; Senate Majority Whip[14]
- Ted Cruz, Texas; 2016 presidential candidate[14]
- U.S. Representatives
- Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House and U.S. Representative (WI-01)[15]
- Individuals
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[16]
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 California nominee for U.S. Senate, and 2016 presidential candidate[17]
- Organizations
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Blunt |
Kristi Nichols |
Bernie Mowinski |
Ryan Luethy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 66% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 19% |
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More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Blunt |
John Brunner |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group | January 2015 | 1,355 | ± ? | 60% | 40% | — | — |
| Remington Research Group | February 2–3, 2015 | 747 | 3.6% | 50% | 19% | — | 32% |
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Hypothetical polling
Results
Blunt
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roy Blunt (incumbent) | 481,444 | 72.55% | |
| Republican | Kristi Nichols | 134,025 | 20.20% | |
| Republican | Ryan Luethy | 29,328 | 4.42% | |
| Republican | Bernie Mowinski | 18,789 | 2.83% | |
| Total votes | 663,586 | 100.00% | ||
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Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri since 2009[29]
- Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County prosecuting attorney and former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party[30][31]
- Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri since 2009[32][33]
Endorsements
Jason Kander
- Vice presidents
- Governors
- U.S. Senators
- Al Franken, Minnesota[36]
- Martin Heinrich, New Mexico[37]
- Claire McCaskill, Missouri[35]
- Harry Reid, Nevada and Senate Minority Leader[38]
- Jon Tester, Montana[39]
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts[40]
- U.S. Representatives
- Emanuel Cleaver II, Missouri[35]
- Statewide Officials
- Chris Koster, Missouri Attorney General and candidate for Governor of Missouri[35]
- Clint Zweifel, Missouri State Treasurer[35]
- Organizations
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jason Kander |
Cori Bush |
Robert Mack |
Chief Wana Dubie |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 67% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 20% |
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Results
Kander
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 223,492 | 69.87% | |
| Democratic | Cori Bush | 42,453 | 13.27% | |
| Democratic | Chief Wana Dubie | 30,432 | 9.51% | |
| Democratic | Robert Mack | 23,509 | 7.35% | |
| Total votes | 319,886 | 100.00% | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 2,002 | 54.90% | |
| Libertarian | Herschel Young | 1,642 | 45.06% | |
| Total votes | 3,644 | 100.00% | ||
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Constitution primary
Candidates
Declared
- Fred Ryman[6]
Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 545 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 545 | 100.00% | ||
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Green Party
Candidates
Declared
Write-in
Debates
More information Date, Host ...
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link(s) | Participants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
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| Roy Blunt |
Jonathan Dine |
Jason Kander |
Jonathan McFarland |
Fred Ryman | ||||
| September 30, 2016 | Associated Press | David Lieb | Video | P | P | P | P | P |
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Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[54] | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[55] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[56] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[57] | Lean R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[58] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
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Polling
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Blunt (R) |
Jason Kander (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,368 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,119 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 51% | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | November 4–5, 2016 | 750 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 879 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 774 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 1,083 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 1,722 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 44% | 3%[59] | 5% |
| DFM Research | October 27 – November 1, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | 9% | 9% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 649 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2016 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 45% | 6% | 4% |
| Monmouth University | October 28–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 671 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R) | October 27–28, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 44% | 4%[60] | 5% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | October 24–26, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 5% |
| Emerson College | October 17–19, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 4% | 8% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 12–14, 2016 | 521 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 52% | — | 3% |
| Monmouth University | October 9–11, 2016 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | 3%[61] | 7% |
| Emerson College | September 9–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 10% | 8% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | September 1–2, 2016 | 1,275 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Monmouth University | August 19–22, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 3%[62] | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | August 5–6, 2016 | 1,280 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 6%[63] | 7% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 11–12, 2016 | 959 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | March 25–26, 2016 | 927 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 37% | — | 19% |
| DFM Research | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 35% | 2% | 14% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) Archived March 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 30–31, 2015 | 783 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 33% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | — | 25% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | February 19, 2015 | 957 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 36% | — | 14% |
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Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roy Blunt (incumbent) | 1,378,458 | 49.18% | −5.05% | |
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 1,300,200 | 46.39% | +5.76% | |
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 67,738 | 2.42% | −0.60% | |
| Green | Johnathan McFarland | 30,743 | 1.10% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 25,407 | 0.91% | −1.22% | |
| Write-in | 95 | 0.03% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,802,641 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Boone (Largest city: Columbia)
- Clay (Largest city: Kansas City[lower-alpha 1])
- Platte (Largest city: Kansas City[lower-alpha 1])
- Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.
- "Ahead of the 2016 curve: Roy Blunt has a fundraiser on election night 2014". The Washington Examiner. November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- "Missouri U.S. Senate Results: Roy Blunt Wins". The New York Times. August 1, 2017. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 12, 2018.
- Deirdre Shesgreen (February 17, 2015). "Blunt had a clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
- "Blunt, Kander easily win their Senate nominations | Politics | stltoday.com". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. August 3, 2016. Retrieved August 12, 2021.
- Horvath, Dave (February 23, 2016). "Three file for sheriff's race". The Neosho Daily News. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
- Hoak, Ashley (October 23, 2015). "Missouri Secretary of State shares plans for 2016 U.S. Senate run". KTVO.com. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
- Hacker, John (February 29, 2016). "Flanigan joins field for Commissioner". The Carthage Press. Archived from the original on March 7, 2016. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
- Jim Stinson (July 15, 2014). "Akin won't rule out 2016 run against Blunt". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- Kendall Breitman (February 26, 2015). "Akin: I'm not running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 26, 2015.
- Shesgreen, Deirdre (February 17, 2015). "Blunt has clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
- "July 2016 Tip Sheet". The Missouri Times. July 15, 2015. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
- "Invitation to Fund-Raiser for Roy Blunt headlined by George W. Bush". The New York Times. June 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- Jeffers, Gromer (October 4, 2016). "Ted Cruz, John Cornyn hosting Dallas fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidates". Dallas News. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
- "Ryan stumps hard for GOP Senate". Politico. October 3, 2016.
- "John Bolton endorses Roy Blunt & Chuck Grassley for U.S. Senate". boltonpac.com. May 24, 2016. Archived from the original on October 28, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). ".@RoyBlunt is the conservative leader Missouri needs. Here's why I'm endorsing him: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- "Small Business endorses Roy Blunt for Re-election". National Federation of Independent Business. August 22, 2016. Archived from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- Raasch, Chuck (August 9, 2016). "Blunt gets NRA Endorsement". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Archived from the original on August 12, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "Roy Blunt scores U.S. Chamber endorsement in Senate Race". KCUR. May 2, 2016. Archived from the original on May 3, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "Missouri Senate Primary Results". Missouri Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Archived from the original on November 23, 2016. Retrieved November 30, 2016.
- Rivas, Rebecca (February 11, 2016). "Black Challengers of Democrat incumbents fight with party over access". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
- "Cori Bush for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 13, 2016. Retrieved February 16, 2016.
- Kraske, Steve (January 30, 2015). "Secretary of State Kander pondering U.S. Senate run in Missouri". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved January 30, 2015.
- "PRESS RELEASE: Jason Kander Announces He Will Run for United States Senate". The Missouri Times. February 19, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2015.
- Salter, Jim (July 23, 2016). "Blunt, Kander looking ahead to November in Senate race". Columbia Missouran. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
- "Wana Dubie officially first US Senate candidate from Salem". Retrieved February 25, 2016.
- Cillizza, Chris (September 19, 2013). "Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon steps forward, but toward what?". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 8, 2014.
- Faughn, Scott (October 20, 2014). "2016 Outlook". The Missouri Times. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
- Fox, Jeff (February 27, 2015). "Sanders says he won't run for state office". The Examiner. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
- Bologna, Giacoma (October 2, 2013). "Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched". Roll Call. Retrieved October 2, 2013.
- "Missouri Treasurer Zweifel won't run for office". Kansas City Star. November 18, 2013. Retrieved November 19, 2013.
- "MO-Sen: VP Joe Biden goes all in to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. August 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "Missouri Leaders endorse Jason's campaign for Senate". jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Archived from the original on September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "MO-Sen: Al Franken (D. MN) steps up to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. May 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "MO & FL-Sen: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D. NM) wants to flip these two seats to end the obstruction". Daily Kos. March 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "MO-Sen: Harry Reid (D. NV) helps Jason Kander (D) pull an upset victory". Daily Kos. August 1, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "MO-Sen: Jon Tester (D. MT) wishes Jason Kander (D) happy birthday by helping him fuel his campaign". Daily Kos. March 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "MO-Sen: Jason Kander (D) proudly touts having Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) on Team Kander". Daily Kos. June 29, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- Vazquez, Maegan (September 15, 2016). "Blindfolded Veteran Assembles AR-15 to Make a Point About Gun Control". Independent Journal Review. Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
- "Daily Kos: Jason Kander - 2016 endorsement". Daily Kos. Archived from the original on September 22, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- Blatt, Hannah (May 17, 2016). "LCV Action Fund endorses Jason Kander for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on June 10, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "Planned Parenthood Action Fund endorses Missouri's Jason Kander in Senate Race". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. August 11, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "Sierra Club endorses Jason Kander for U.S. Senate". Sierra Club. August 8, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "Herschel L. Young – Biographical Profile and Positions on the Issues". Vote-MO. Archived from the original on July 15, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
- "Herschel Young Candidate for the People". Facebook. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
- "Johnathan McFarland- Candidate for United States Senator". Missouri Green Party. Archived from the original on September 12, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
- "Kander Certifies Green Party for November Ballot". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
- Blatchford, Taylor (June 10, 2016). "First-time competitor brings passion for race walking, politics to Senior Games". Columbia Missourian. Retrieved June 12, 2016.
- "A unique campaign". May 25, 2016. Retrieved August 31, 2016.
- Dundon, Eric (July 7, 2016). "Missouri Senate campaign swims against popular political current, but can it have an impact?". Retrieved August 31, 2016.
- "Lee: No kicking the can". Retrieved August 31, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- Jonathan Dine (L), Fred Ryman (C), and "Others" each with 1%
- "Others" with 3% and Fred Ryman (C) with 1%
- Jonathan Dine (L) with 3%
- Jonathan Dine (L) with 3%
- Jonathan Dine (L) with 4% and Fred Ryman (C) with 2%
- "Official Results: 2016 General Election". Missouri Secretary of State. December 12, 2016. Archived from the original on June 15, 2019. Retrieved March 17, 2017.
- Official campaign websites