2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana

2018 United States Senate election in Montana

2018 United States Senate election in Montana

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Although Montana went for Donald Trump by a margin of about 20 percent in 2016, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[2] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.

Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana’s vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Jon Tester
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010[21][22]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Rosendale—60–70%
  •   Rosendale—50–60%
  •   Rosendale—40–50%
  •   Rosendale—30–40%
  •   Rosendale—<30%
  •   Rosendale/Fagg tie—30–40%
  •   Fagg—30–40%
  •   Fagg—40–50%
  •   Fagg—50–60%
  •   Olszewski—30–40%
  •   Olszewski—40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[43] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[43] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[44][45][46]

Green Party

Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[47]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

  • Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[48]

Eliminated in primary

  • Timothy Adams

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Kelly—100%
  •   Kelly—≥90%
  •   Kelly—80–90%
  •   Kelly—70–80%
  •   Kelly—60–70%
  •   Kelly—50–60%
  •   Kelly—40–50%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—30–40%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—50%
  •   Adams—50–60%
  •   Adams—60–70%
  •   Adams—100%
  •   No votes
More information Party, Candidate ...

General election

Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Endorsements

Jon Tester (D)
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
Newspapers
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Matt Rosendale (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018, Candidate (party) ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
State House district results
State Senate district results
More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana[81]

More information County, Jon Tester Democratic ...
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

  1. "Montana Voter Turnout - Official Montana Secretary of State Website - Christi Jacobsen". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  2. Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR, November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  3. "Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election". Greatfallstribune.com. October 9, 2017. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  4. Brodey, Sam (August 4, 2017). "Franken, Klobuchar step up early with 2018 campaign cash for endangered Senate colleagues". MinnPost. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  5. Warren sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Tester.
  6. Muller, Tiffany (April 13, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jon Tester for Senate - End Citizens United". End Citizens United.
  7. "2018 Montana primary election results" (PDF). Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  8. Caina Calvan, Bobby (July 31, 2017). "Montana auditor says he'll seek US Senate seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved July 31, 2017.
  9. Volz, Matt (May 18, 2017). "Storage company CEO files to run against Tester". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  10. Michels, Holly K. (April 11, 2017). "Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018". Independent Record. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
  11. Michels, Holly K. (June 23, 2017). "Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid". Independent Record. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  12. "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out". KXLH. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
  13. Robillard, Kevin; Schneider, Elena (June 2, 2017). "Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester". Politico. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  14. Caina Calvan, Bobby (June 5, 2017). "Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  15. King, Jon (September 2, 2016). "Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate". KGVO. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  16. "Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate". Troydowning.com. Archived from the original on June 11, 2018. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  17. Dennison, Mike (September 12, 2017). "Republican Fagg insists he's still 'exploring' U.S. Senate candidacy". Montana Television Network. Archived from the original on September 12, 2017. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
  18. Severns, Maggie (September 13, 2016). "Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster'". Politico. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  19. Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
  20. "Endorsements | Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Mattformontana.com. Archived from the original on May 3, 2018. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  21. Ron Murray 1%
  22. Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  23. Wilson, Reid (July 10, 2018). "Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester". The Hill. Retrieved July 27, 2018.
  24. Dennison, Mike (March 12, 2018). "Green Party qualifies for MT ballot; 66 candidates file on final day for 2018 ballot". KPAX. Archived from the original on March 12, 2018. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  25. "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  26. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  27. "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  28. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  29. "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  30. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  31. Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "Montana - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 1, 2018.
  32. "Tester leads with moderation, civility". Missoulian. October 21, 2018.
  33. "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
  34. "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  35. Corin Cates-Carney (October 23, 2018). "National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Stumps For Rosendale In Montana". MTPR. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  36. Hann, Derek (October 29, 2018). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul stumps in Havre in support of Rosendale". Havre Daily News. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  37. Drake, Phil. "Libertarian endorses Rosendale in Senate race". Great Falls Tribune.
  38. Brascia, Dominick (October 25, 2018). "EXCLUSIVE: VETERAN DOWNING SAYS TESTER BAD FOR VETS". kmmsam.com.
  39. Flint, Aaron (October 29, 2018). "BREAKING: CROW TRIBAL CHAIRMAN ENDORSES ROSENDALE FOR SENATE". newstalk955.com. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  40. "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options". Americans for Prosperity. August 28, 2018. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  41. Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018). "MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES". NewsTalkKGVO.com. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  42. "Your Freedom is Under Attack! Vote On or Before November 6th!". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023. The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana.
  43. Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018). "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester". Great Falls Tribune. Archived from the original on September 22, 2018.
  44. "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. October 17, 2018. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  45. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  46. "Montana Secretary of State". mtelectionresults.gov.
  47. "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

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