2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary

2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary

The 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary took place on February 11, 2020, as the second nominating contest in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the Iowa caucuses the week before. The New Hampshire primary was a semi-closed primary, meaning that only Democrats and independents were allowed to vote in this primary. New Hampshire sent 33 delegates to the national convention, of which 24 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary, and the other 9 were unpledged delegates preselected independently of the primary results.[1]

Quick Facts 33 delegates (24 pledged, 9 unpledged)to the Democratic National Convention The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote, Candidate ...

Senator Bernie Sanders won the primary with 25.6% of the vote, edging out former mayor Pete Buttigieg after his narrow win in Iowa, who came in second place with 24.3% of the vote.[2] Both had already led the results in Iowa. This was a decline in support for Sanders, who in 2016 had won New Hampshire with 60.14% to Hillary Clinton's 37.68%.[3] Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates, while Senator Amy Klobuchar unexpectedly finished in third place and received six delegates; her third-place finish was described as "Klomentum" or "Klobucharge" by several observers, but she was not able to make use of this in the following primaries. Senator Elizabeth Warren and former vice president Joe Biden, who had been the leading contenders nationally, both underperformed expectations, coming in fourth and fifth, respectively, and received no delegates. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and Colorado Senator Michael Bennet finished eighth, tenth and eleventh respectively and all suspended their presidential campaigns after their poor results.

Voter turnout set a new record for New Hampshire primaries, with 298,377 ballots being cast,[2] breaking the previous record of 287,527 set in the 2008 primary.[4] This was the third consecutive contested Democratic primary in which New Hampshire voted for the candidate that did not receive the Democratic nomination. Despite underperforming quite drastically in this primary, Biden later went on to win the nomination and defeat incumbent president Donald Trump in the general election, including a comfortable general election victory in New Hampshire.

Procedure

The state's ballot access laws have traditionally been lenient, with prospective presidential candidates required to pay only a $1,000 fee to secure a line on the primary ballot.[5] Primary elections were held on Tuesday, February 11, 2020. The first polls opened at midnight local time (EST),[6] with the vast majority of polling places closed by 7 p.m. and a small number of cities allowed to close at 8 p.m.[1]

In the semi-closed primary, candidates had to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 24 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were all allocated proportionally on the basis of the qualified results of the primary, in the two congressional districts and on statewide level respectively. Of these, 8 each were allocated to each of the state's 2 congressional districts and another 3 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 5 at-large delegates.[1] The national convention delegation meeting was to be held in Concord on April 25, to vote on the exact names of the five at-large and three pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention.[1] The delegation also included 9 unpledged PLEO delegates (also known as superdelegates): 5 members of the Democratic National Committee and 4 members of Congress (both senators and 2 representatives).[1]

More information Pledged nationalconvention delegates, Type ...

Candidates on the ballot

The following candidates were on the ballot[7] and are listed in order of filing.

Running

Withdrawn

Brian Moore qualified but withdrew early enough so that he did not appear on the ballot.[7]

Forums and other events

Prospective candidates began making visits to New Hampshire in 2017.[8] Among the more notable events of the campaign was the 2019 state convention, at which 19 of the candidates give speeches.[9] The eighth Democratic primary debate took place in the state on February 7, 2020.[10] A Lesser-Known Candidates Forum was also held, featuring candidates on the New Hampshire ballot but who were not considered major candidates.[11]

Polling

More information Polling aggregation, Source of poll aggregation ...
   – Debate qualifying poll as designated by the Democratic National Committee
More information Polling from January 1, 2020, to February 11, 2020, Poll source ...
More information Polling before January 2020, Poll source ...
More information Head-to-head polls, Poll source ...

Results

The first results in New Hampshire were released shortly after midnight from Dixville Notch. Although not on the ballot, Michael Bloomberg received three write-in votes, enough to carry the town.[12][13][14] Bernie Sanders won the state by a margin of around four thousand votes over Pete Buttigieg, with Amy Klobuchar placing third.[15][2] Sanders and Buttigieg each received nine pledged national convention delegates while Klobuchar received six.[16][1] Sanders had previously won the state in his prior pursuit of the Democratic nomination in 2016 with some 152,000 votes (60.4% of the total) against Hillary Clinton.[17]

Voter turnout set a new record for New Hampshire primaries with 298,377 ballots being cast,[2] breaking the previous record of 287,527 set in the 2008 primary.[18][19]

Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Buttigieg—<30%
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Sanders—25–30%
More information Candidate, Votes ...

Results by county

More information Candidate, Belknap votes ...

Analysis

Bernie Sanders narrowly won the New Hampshire primary with 25.6% of the vote, the lowest vote share a winner of this primary has ever received,[22] with Pete Buttigieg finishing in second.[2] By contrast, Amy Klobuchar finished in an unexpectedly strong third place. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, both of which were considered disappointing finishes.[23] Geographically, Sanders won the largest cities in New Hampshire, including Manchester, Nashua, and Concord. Buttigieg kept the race close by performing strongly in the southeastern part of the state,[23] including in the suburbs of Boston and in the nearby, more rural Lakes Region.[24]

Exit polls showed that Sanders benefited from his strong performance among young voters as he won about half of the under-30 vote, with this group making up about 14% of the electorate. Among those under the age of 45, he won 42% of the vote; this larger group made up about a third of the electorate. Buttigieg received only 21% of the vote among those under the age of 45 but outperformed Sanders 26–17 among voters 45 and older. Both Sanders and Buttigieg lost the 45-and-older vote to Klobuchar, who received 27% of the vote in this group. Similarly, Klobuchar convincingly won among voters aged 65 and older, receiving 32% of their votes, as compared to only 14% for Sanders and 12% for Biden. Ideologically, about 60% of voters identified as either "very liberal" or "somewhat liberal", and Sanders won this group with about 33% of the vote. By contrast, among the remaining 40% of voters who identified as "moderate" or "conservative", Buttigieg and Klobuchar approximately tied with 27 and 26% of the vote, respectively.[25]

Aftermath

Following poor showings in the New Hampshire primary, Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado,[26] entrepreneur Andrew Yang[27] and former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick[28] withdrew from the race. With the end of these campaigns, the Democratic field numbered fewer than ten candidates for the first time since early 2019.

Notes

  1. Each 1st congressional district (CD1) delegate is pledged to support a specific presidential candidate as determined per the total qualified popular vote result of the primary held only in CD1 on February 11.
  2. Each 2nd congressional district (CD2) delegate is pledged to support a specific presidential candidate as determined per the total qualified popular vote result of the primary held only in CD2 on February 11.
  3. Each PLEO delegate is pledged to support a specific presidential candidate as determined per the statewide qualified popular vote result of the primary held on February 11, but the exact name of the PLEO delegate will only be elected among the participating PLEO delegates at the "New Hampshire national convention delegation meeting" on April 25.
  4. Each at-large delegate is pledged to support a specific presidential candidate as determined per the statewide qualified popular vote result of the primary held on February 11, but the exact name of the at-large delegate will only be elected among the participating delegates at the "New Hampshire national convention delegation meeting" on April 25.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  6. Patrick with 0.8%; Bennet with 0.6%; Bloomberg with 0.5%
  7. Patrick with 1.0%; Bennet with 0.3%; Bloomberg not reported
  8. FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  9. Bloomberg with 2.3%; Patrick with 0.7%; Bennet with 0.5%
  10. Bloomberg with 0.9%; Patrick with 0.8%; Bennet with 0.5%
  11. Patrick with 0.4%; Bennet with 0.3%; Booker with 0.1%; Boyd, Burke, Bullock, Castro, De La Fuente III, Delaney, Dunlap, Ellinger, Gleib, Greenstein, Harris, Hewes, Koos, Kraus, Krichevsky, Moroz, Sloan, Sestak, Thistle, Torgesen, Wells and Williamson with 0.0%; other (write-in candidates) with 1.5%
  12. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  13. Patrick with 0.4%; Bennet with 0.3%; Booker with 0.1%; Boyd, Burke, Bullock, Castro, De La Fuente III, Delaney, Dunlap, Ellinger, Gleib, Greenstein, Harris, Hewes, Koos, Kraus, Krichevsky, Moroz, Sloan, Sestak, Thistle, Torgesen, Wells and Williamson; other (write-in candidates) with 1.5%
  14. By the time of this poll, Data for Progress, which has worked with both the Sanders and Warren campaigns, had endorsed Warren
  15. Bennet, Bloomberg and Patrick with 1%; other with 2%
  16. Bennet and Patrick with 1%; "someone else" with 2%
  17. Patrick with 1%; Bennet with 0%
  18. Patrick with 1%; Bennet with 0%; other with 2%; refused with 0%
  19. Not yet released
  20. Not yet released
  21. Not yet released
  22. Not yet released
  23. Bennet and Bloomberg with 0%; Patrick with no voters; other with 1%
  24. Patrick with 1%; Bennet with 0%; "someone else" with 3%
  25. Bennet and Patrick with 0%; "Other" with 3%
  26. Bennet with 1%; Patrick with no voters; other with 2%
  27. Patrick with 1%; Bennet with 0%; "someone else" with 2%
  28. Bloomberg with 1%; others with 1%
  29. Patrick and Bennet with 0%; "someone else" with 3%
  30. Bennet with 1%; Patrick with 0%; "Other" with 3%
  31. Bennet and Patrick with 1%; "another candidate" with 3%
  32. Bloomberg with 2%; Patrick and Bennet with 0%; "Other" with 1%
  33. Patrick and Bennet with 0%; "someone else" with 3%
  34. Bennet and Patrick with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  35. Patrick and Bennet with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  36. Bennet and Patrick with 0%; "Other" with 1%
  37. Bennet with 1%; Patrick with <1%; "Other" with 1%
  38. If the primary came down to the five candidates listed in this poll
  39. "None of these/won't vote" with 3%
  40. If the primary came down to the four candidates listed in this poll
  41. "None of these/won't vote" with 3%
  42. Patrick and Bennet with 0%; "someone else" with 2%
  43. Bennet and Patrick with 0%; "Other" with 1%
  44. Patrick with 1%; Bennet with 0%; "someone else" with 2%
  45. Bennet and Patrick with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  46. Bennet and Patrick with 0%; "someone else" with 4%
  47. Bennet and Patrick with 0%; "someone else" with 2%
  48. Bloomberg with 2%; Bennet and Patrick with <1%
  49. Bloomberg with 2%; Bennet with 1%; Patrick with no voters; other with 2%
  50. Patrick with 1%; Bennet and Delaney with 0%
  51. Bennet, Delaney, and Patrick with 0%; "Other" with 2%
  52. Bloomberg (explicitly as a write in) and Patrick with 2%; Bennet with 1%; "Other" with 3%; Delaney not reported
  53. Bloomberg with 3%; Bennet with 2%; Delaney and Patrick with 0%; "Other" with 2%
  54. Bennet and Patrick with 1%; Delaney with <1%
  55. Bloomberg and Delaney with 1%; Bennet and Patrick with 0%
  56. Bloomberg and Patrick with 1%; Bennet with <1%; Delaney with 0%; some other candidate with 2%; would not vote with <1%
  57. Listed as "Don't know/refused"
  58. Bennet and Patrick with 1%; Delaney with 0%
  59. Delaney with 1%; Bennet and Patrick with no voters; "someone else" with 6%
  60. Bloomberg with 4%; Bennet, Delaney, Patrick and Williamson with no voters; other with 1%
  61. Sponsored by a presidential candidate's campaign
  62. Booker with 2%; "someone else" with 1%
  63. Bennet with 2%; Booker with 1%; Delaney and Williamson with 0%; Patrick and "Someone else" with 0%
  64. If the primary came down to the seven candidates listed in this poll
  65. "None of these" with 3%; Booker with 2%
  66. If the primary came down to the four candidates listed in this poll
  67. "None of these" with 5%
  68. Booker with 2%; Patrick with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Delaney, and Williamson with 0%; "Someone else" with 0%
  69. Steyer with 3%; Bloomberg with 2%; Williamson with 1%; Bennet with <1%; Castro and Delaney with 0%; someone else with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  70. Includes "refused"
  71. Steyer with 3%; Bloomberg and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro and Delaney and Sestak and with 0%; someone else with 2%
  72. Steyer with 2%; Bullock, Castro and Delaney with 1%; Bennet, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; others with 2%; refused with 1%
  73. Steyer with 5%; Delaney and Williamson with 0%
  74. Steyer with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Sestak, Williamson with 0%, "Someone else" with 2%
  75. Steyer with 3%; Bennet and Castro, with 1%, Bullock, Delaney, Messam, Sestak, Williamson with 0%
  76. Steyer with 3%; Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Delaney and other with 0%
  77. Steyer with 1%; Castro with 0% and Williamson with 0%; other with 3%
  78. The poll did not announce this result separately; it is listed as part of 'Other'.
  79. Steyer with 4%; Ryan with 1%, Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; "someone else" with 0%
  80. Steyer with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Castro with 0%; Delaney, Bullock, Bennet and Williamson with less than 1%
  81. Steyer with 2%; Williamson with 1%; Castro, Delaney and Ryan with <1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Messam and Sestak with 0%; "no one" with 1%;
  82. Steyer with 2%; de Blasio, Delaney, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan and Sestak with 0%
  83. Castro with 1%; others with 2%
  84. Delaney with 3%; Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Messam, Ryan, and Sestak with 0%; someone else with 3%
  85. Steyer with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%
  86. Steyer with 4%; Castro with 2%; Gillibrand and Inslee with 1%
  87. Bennet with 2%; Delaney, Gillibrand, Williamson, and Steyer with 1%; others with 0%
  88. Castro, Delaney, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Steyer with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, de Blasio, Gravel, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%
  89. Bennet, Delaney, Gillibrand, and Williamson with 1%; de Blasio, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, and Steyer with 0%
  90. Williamson with 2%; Gillibrand with 1%; Inslee with 0%
  91. Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Castro, Delaney, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
  92. Gillibrand, Gravel, Inslee, and Moulton with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  93. Delaney, Gravel, and Inslee with 1%; Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  94. Gillibrand and Hickenlooper with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gravel, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%
  95. Hickenlooper and Ryan with 1%; Bullock, Delaney, Gillibrand, and Williamson with <1%; Bennet, Castro, de Blasio, Gravel, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, and Swalwell with 0%
  96. Delaney with 2%; Moulton, and Ryan with 1%; Abrams, Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  97. Delaney with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 0%
  98. Ryan with 2%; Gillibrand, Messam, and Swalwell with 1%; Castro, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Inslee, and Williamson with 0%; others with 0%
  99. Delaney, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee with 0%; others with 6%
  100. Bloomberg, Brown, and Gillibrand with 1%; Delaney and Hickenlooper with 0%; others with 3%
  101. Bloomberg with 2%; Brown, Delaney, and Gillibrand with 1%; Castro with 0%; others with 5%
  102. Gillibrand with 3%; Bloomberg with 2%; Castro with 1%; others with 3%
  103. Gillibrand with 0%
  104. Kennedy with 9%; Clinton with 3%; Bloomberg, Kerry, and Klobuchar with 2%; Brown, Bullock, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Ojeda, and Steyer with 1%; Castro, Cuomo, Delaney, Holder, Inslee, McAuliffe, Schultz, and Swalwell with 0%
  105. Kennedy with 7%; Holder with 2%; O'Malley with 1%; Delaney, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 0%; others with 2%
  106. Gillibrand and McAuliffe with 2%
  107. Gillibrand with 3%; McAuliffe with 2%; others with 1%
  108. Kennedy with 3%; O'Malley with 2%; Gillibrand and Hickenlooper with 1%; Ryan with 0%; others with 2%
  109. Gillibrand with 2%; O'Malley with 1%; others with 4%
  110. O'Malley with 3%; Hickenlooper and Zuckerberg with 2%; Gillibrand, and Ryan with 1%; Delaney with 0%; others with 5%
  111. Including 157 write-in votes
  112. excluding Bloomberg and Trump

See also

References

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    Morin, Rebecca (February 12, 2020). "Deval Patrick drops out of Democratic presidential race". USA Today.
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