All Progressives Congress

Although there were rumors of a rift between Governor Oyetola and former Governor Rauf Aregbesola that could lead to Oyetola failing to be renominated,^[20][21] Osun APC Chairman Gboyega Famodun claimed that Oyetola was widely accepted throughout the state and local APC chapters and thus would have the support of the state party.^[22] However, the Osun State APC later factionalized between the Oyetola-aligned IleriOluwa faction (chaired by Famodun) and the Aregbesola-aligned The Osun Progressives faction (chaired by Rasaq Salinsile).^[23][24] Despite outside attempts at reconciliation, the party crisis deepened by January 2022 and the threat of two parallel primaries loomed as Oyetola registered to run in the IleriOluwa APC while challengers registered to run in the TOP APC.^[25] Eventually, the IleriOluwa faction was recognized by the national APC and the primary continued within it as Aregbesola endorsed challenger Moshood Adeoti while Oyetola began his campaign for a second term.^[26]

In January 2022, the APC rescheduled its primary for 19 February with the expression of interest form costing ₦2.5 million and the nomination form costing ₦20 million; a 50% discount would be provided to women candidates and candidates with disabilities. The party also rescheduled its candidate screening and screening appeal process for 10 and 15 February, respectively.^[27] Different dates had been announced in November but the dates were changed after national revision.^[28][29]

In the days before the election, the Oyetola-Aregbesola feud escalated after Aregbesola formally endorsed Adeoti on 14 February. Aregbesola then claimed that his convoy was attacked later that day in an assassination attempt while the police and Oyetola administration claimed that Aregbesola's guards shot into the air without any provocation.^[30] The next day, Aregbesola allies claimed that they had uncovered a new plot to kill Aregbesola by "state government-sponsored political thugs," thus indirectly accusing Oyetola of organizing the assassination plots.^[31] These incidents lead to fears that the primary could be marred by violence despite the increased security presence during the exercise.^[32] Thankfully, the practice was mainly peaceful, albeit with one person being shot dead over a non-election related dispute according to police.^[33] In the early morning of 20 February, head of the primary committee and Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq declared Oyetola as the APC nominee after announced results showed him defeating Adeoti and former House Deputy Speaker Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun by over 200,000 votes with 60% turnout.^[6] Before the results were even announced, Adeoti and his allies rejected the primary wholeheartedly with his supporters claiming that their names were purposefully left off registers, others observing that INEC officials were absent from units, and Aregbesola calling the primary a "sham of an election."^[34] For their part, Oyetola supporters backed the exercise's fairness and Oyetola himself called for party unity the day after the primary.^[35][36] Prior to taking outside legal action, Adeoti appealed to the APC primary election appeal committee which denied his appeal;^[37] accordingly, Adeoti then asked a Federal High Court in Abuja to declare him winner.^[38] The case was not resolved until 14 July when Justice Inyang Eden Ekwo dismissed the lawsuit.^[39] However, a different case brought by the PDP contested that the primary was invalid due to illegitimate APC national leadership as then-APC Chair Mai Mala Buni was an incumbent governor; on 1 October 2022, a Federal High Court ruled in favor of the PDP, nullifying the APC gubernatorial primary and declaring Oyetola's nomination void.^[12] The APC announced that the party would appeal the ruling and on 3 December, a Court of Appeal judgment overturned the lower court's decision.^[40][13] On 2 February 2023, the Supreme Court upheld the Court of Appeal judgment by dismissing the PDP case.^[41]

People's Democratic Party

By 2021, Ademola Adeleke, the 2018 PDP nominee, had already received the support of the national PDP with party officials claiming he has effectively been given the nomination according to PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary Duran Odeyemi.^[48] However, the state PDP claimed that while "the majority of our party stakeholders" were supporting Adeleke, all contenders were allowed to run in the primary. This assessment became contested as the state party later factionalized between the Adeleke-supporting faction (chaired by Sunday Bisi) and the faction aligned with the other five candidates (chaired by Wale Ojo).^[24] Another internal battle was sparked in January 2022 when a dispute between Ademola and Dele Adeleke—both members of the powerful Adeleke political family of Ede—escalated and tied in popular musician Davido, cousin of Dele and nephew of Ademola, who has supported Ademola since 2018 and attacked Dele on social media.^[49]

In November 2021, the PDP announced that its primary will be held on 7 March 2022 with the sale of the expression of interest and nomination forms being held between 22 November and 10 December. On 8 January, the PDP rescheduled its candidate screening from 11 January to 12 January with the screening appeal process remaining scheduled for 26 January; all six candidates were approved by the committee.^[50][51][52] The primary date was later pushed back to 8 March.^[53]

In the weeks ahead of the primaries, contentious ward congresses to elect delegates for the primary left two people dead and led to fear of continued violence between the Bisi and Ojo factions during the primary itself.^[54][55][56] The primary was shaping to primarily be a rematch of the 2018 primary between Ademola Adeleke and Akin Ogunbiyi until Ogunbiyi withdrew on 7 March citing alleged bias from the national party in favour of A. Adeleke; on the same day Sanya Omirin, Dele Adeleke, and Fatai Akinade Akinbade also dropped out leaving just Dotun Babayemi and A. Adeleke in the race.^[57][58][59] On the morning of the primary, two parallel primaries held with the Ojo-led faction holding a primary at the Women and Children Development Initiative Foundation (WOCDIF) Centre while the Bisi-led faction (backed by the national PDP) held its primary at the Osogbo City Stadium.^[60] After both primaries were peacefully held, the WOCDIF Centre primary ended in Babayemi winning by a wide margin while the Stadium primary resulted in a large win for Ademola Adeleke.^[61] The national party-appointed returning officer, Bayelsa Deputy Governor Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, presided over the Stadium primary and dismissed the WOCDIF Centre primary as "invalid" while former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola backed the WOCDIF Centre primary.^[62] The PDP national headquarters gave Adeleke the certificate of return on 10 March but Babayemi stated that the decision was "not the end of journey."^[63][64] As the Independent National Electoral Commission only observed the primary that nominated Adeleke, he was listed as the legitimate PDP nominee in April before in May, a Federal High Court dismissed Babayemi's challenge to be declared nominee.^[42][65] In July, after the general election, Babayemi's appeal was also rejected as the Court of Appeal in Akure upheld the High Court ruling.^[66] He again appealed, but the Supreme Court upheld the rulings of the lower courts and sided with Adeleke in late September 2022.^[67]

Minor parties

Election debates

Electoral timetable

The Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.^[97]

• 15 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
• 16 February 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
• 12 March 2022 – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
• 14 March 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
• 18 March 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
• 17 April 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
• 14 July 2022 – Final day of the official campaign period
• 16 July 2022 – Election Day

Pre-election

As the election neared, INEC and other authorities started announcing their preparations with the election commission announcing that it would deploy both full-time and ad-hoc staffers to the state's 3,753 polling units on election day along with BVAS machines while noting that vote buying was a major concern in the wake of the Ekiti State gubernatorial election.^[98] For the Nigeria Police Force, a statement on 10 July noted that police would deploy Deputy Inspector-General Johnson Babatunde Kokumo to be coordinator of election security efforts that would include thousands of conventional police officers and soldiers along with special forces, five armored personnel carriers, three helicopters, and drones.^[99]

Election Day

On election day, voting was mainly peaceful and logistically well-organized but reports of vote buying from party agents marred the exercise.^[100][101] On the other hand, INEC was commended for successful election administration as the vast majority of polling units had early-arriving officials, security operatives, and well-functioning equipment according to preliminary reports from election observers CDD West Africa, Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, and YIAGA Africa.^[102][103]

Results

Response

Analysis

In the days after the election, political analysts noted several post-election takeaways with the political focus on the impact the results could have on the presidential race, especially since Oyetola is the relative and close ally of Bola Tinubu—the APC presidential nominee.^[154][155] Pundits also noted numerous potential reasons for the result, namely: the divide within the state APC, anger at the APC administration—both on the state and national levels, the political clout of the Adeleke family, and the successful Adeleke campaign which often featured his nephew Davido.^{[8][9][156][157]} Observers also noted anger at Oyetola over the alleged diversion of COVID-19 palliatives meant for the public and his administration's failure to pay owed civil servant salaries; in addition, post-election analysis examined specific cases of APC infighting in several LGAs that Adeleke eventually won, the extensive campaigning of PDP figures like former Senate President Bukola Saraki and Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki, and the purported support that Aregbesola and LP nominee Lasun gave to Adeleke.^[158]

Litigation

The tribunal opened its registry for complaints before election day with David Umar Dike, the Tribunal Secretary, noting that complainants had 21 days to file challenges.^[159] On 4 August, Osun APC Chairman Gboyega Famodun announced Oyetola's intent to challenge the results at the Election Petition Tribunal, stating that "we have a strong case and we believe we will win at the court."^[11][160] In response, Osun PDP Caretaker Committee Chairman Akindele Adekunle condemned the APC's contest to the election results, describing the move "as anti-people and a challenge of God's will" while expressing a lack of concern about the result of the challenge "as the election that produced the winner was adjudged to be of global democratic compliance."^[161][162] Later that month, Oyetola formally filed his petition and the Tribunal began hearing the challenge application on 22 August.^[163][164] As the case continued and the formal tribunal sitting date was set for 26 September, Oyetola's team proposed a relocation of the tribunal from Osogbo to Abuja but were rebuffed by an appeal court.^[165][166] After the initial hearings in September, the tribunal continued meeting until January to hear the Oyetola case which was based on overvoting in certain polling units and claims that Adeleke had falsified certificates.^[167][168] The date for the tribunal's judgment is set for 27 January.^[169] On the date, the tribunal ruled against Adeleke in a judgement that declared Oyetola the rightfully elected governor based on the reports of overvoting.^[4] The judgment sparked protests and prompted an immediate appeal from now-Governor Adeleke, who remains in office pending the results of further litigation.^[5][170]

Transition and inauguration

Adeleke and Adewusi received the certificates of return on 20 July at a brief ceremony at the Osun State INEC office in Osogbo.^[171] About a week later, Adeleke formed a 37-member transition committee chaired by former House of Representatives member Muyiwa Oladimeji.^[172] While inaugurating the committee, Adeleke tasked its members with forming an agenda for his first hundred days and his first year in office.^[173] About a week later, the House of Assembly began working on the Transition Bill 2022 to organize a clean transition.^[174] For Oyetola administration's part, despite the electoral challenge, moves were made to consolidate APC power in the state by scheduling local government elections for 15 October—about a month before the inauguration; the PDP protested the election as "illegal" and attempt to defraud the state while the Osun Independent Electoral Commission pointed out that the previous local government elections were four years beforehand.^[175] Although the elections were held, they were declared illegal by courts after the fact.^[176][177]

The inauguration was held on 27 November at the Oshogbo Stadium in Osogbo. Attendees included the Ooni of Ife, Davido, and several PDP governors along with the party's presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar; Oyetola did not attend the ceremony, instead publishing a farewell statement that noted his ongoing challenge to the election results.^[178] Adeleke and Adewusi were sworn in by the Chief Judge of the Osun State High Court—Oyebola Adepele-Ojo; Adeleke then gave an inaugural address in which he announced a freeze order on all state government accounts, vowed to investigate corruption from the Oyetola administration, ordered the reversion of the state name back to "Osun State" from "State of Osun,"^{[lower-alpha 17]} and reversed several Oyetola appointments.^[179][180] The next day, a flurry of executive orders codified these inauguration vows along with mandating the review of all Oyetola's traditional ruler enthronements after the election, ordering the dethronement of three traditional rulers, and reversing all other Oyetola appointments made after the election along with commencing reviews and a staff sudit.^[181]