Process

In New Mexico, legislative and congressional maps must be passed by the state legislature and are subject to a veto by the governor, which would require a two-thirds supermajority in each house of the legislature to override. In April 2021, governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill passed by the legislature that established the seven-member New Mexico Citizen Redistricting Committee. The job of the committee is to draw three sets of legislative and congressional maps, which it then sends to the legislature for consideration. Current public officials and government employees are barred from serving on the committee. The committee's role is purely advisory and the legislature is free to alter or discard its proposals.^[1]

On October 15, 2021, the redistricting committee voted to send 3 congressional maps to the legislature. The first would largely maintain the boundaries of the state's existing map. The second would increase Native American representation in the 3rd congressional district to nearly 20% and Hispanic representation in the 2nd district to 54%. This proposal was championed by the committee's chairman Edward Chávez, former Chief Justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court. The third, drawn by the Center for Civic Policy, would add liberal areas of the city of Albuquerque to the rural 2nd district.^[2]

Targeting of the 2nd district

In the leadup to the 2020 redistricting cycle, some suspected that the Democratic-controlled state legislature might alter the boundaries of the 2nd congressional district to make it more favorable to the Democratic Party. The 2nd district was represented by Democrat Xochitl Torres Small after she defeated Republican Yvette Herrell in the 2018 midterm elections, but she lost to Herrell in a 2020 rematch. The day after Herrell's victory, Democrat Brian Egolf, the Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, pointed out that the 2nd district would inevitably be changed during redistricting and said "we'll have to see what that means for Republican chances to hold it." This statement was criticized by Steve Pearce, the chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, who called it "political tricks."^[3]

The district is mostly rural and dominated by the oil and natural gas industry. Carlsbad mayor Dale Janway expressed concern that portions of the Albuquerque suburbs might be added to the district, which would dilute the influence of the rural communities in the district, including Carlsbad.^[4] After the 2020 elections, the district held a Partisan Voting Index of R+8.^[5]

Legislature's map

On December 10, the New Mexico Senate voted 25–15 to approve a congressional map drawn by Democratic state senator Joseph Cervantes. This proposal largely resembles the third map submitted by the commission, adding portions of western and southern Albuquerque to the 2nd district and moving a portion of the conservative-leaning, oil-producing area of the 2nd district into the 3rd district. These changes would increase the Hispanic majority in the 2nd district from 51% to 56% and decrease the percentage of Native Americans in the 3rd district from 20% to 16%. Republicans widely opposed the map, with GOP state senator David Gallegos pointing out that the map combines the conservative oilfield town of Hobbs with heavily Democratic Santa Fe, which is hundreds of miles away, and GOP senator Cliff Pirtle claiming that the map represented an attempt by Democrats to control all 3 of New Mexico's House seats. Cervantes defended his map, saying he wished to "reimagine a New Mexico where our districts include rural and urban areas."^[6][7][8][9] The New Mexico House of Representatives passed the map on December 12 in a 44–24 vote, and governor Lujan Grisham approved it on December 17.^[10][11]

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report interpreted the new map as an attempt by Democrats to target Herrell while still protecting the representative of the 3rd district, Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez. Under the new map, in the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden would have won the 1st district by 14.5%, the 2nd by under 6%, and the 3rd by roughly 11%.^[12] Under the previous map, Biden won the first district by 22.8% and the 3rd district by 17.6%, and lost the 2nd district to Republican Donald Trump by 11.8%.^[13]

Democratic primary

Republican primary

General election

Republican primary

Democratic primary

General election

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Yvette Herrell (R)	Gabe Vasquez (D)	Undecided [lower-alpha 4]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight	July 19 – October 28, 2022	October 31, 2022	49.4%	45.3%	5.3%	Herrell +4.1

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Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Yvette Herrell (R)	Gabe Vasquez (D)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	October 25–28, 2022	302 (LV)	± 5.6%	54%	41%	1%[lower-alpha 5]	4%
				54%	44%	2%[lower-alpha 6]	–
Research & Polling Inc.	October 20–27, 2022	410 (LV)	± 4.8%	45%	47%	–	8%
Siena College/New York Times	October 20–24, 2022	398 (LV)	± 5.5%	47%	48%	–	5%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 1]	September 20–26, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	45%	–	12%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 1]	July 19–25, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	45%	–	11%

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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democrat	Undecided
GBAO (D)[upper-alpha 2]	October 9, 2022	–	–	46%	49%	5%

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Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Democratic primary

Republican primary

General election