Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state election^[4] unless the Landtag is dissolved early, in this case the new election shall be held at the latest on the sixth Sunday after the dissolution. The preceding state election took place on 14 October 2018. This would allow an election date between 17 September and 10 December 2023. The elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October.^[5] The Bavarian state government proposed 8 October 2023 as the election date on 15 November 2022^[6] and officially set it on 13 December 2022 after hearing the parties to the state parliament.^[7] At the same day elections of the Bezirktags, two District Administrators and some Mayors take place.^[8]

The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and possible changes of the electoral districts, was 14 July 2021 (33 months after the election of the previous Landtag).^[9] On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election.^[10] This was done on 12 October 2021.^[11]

Delegates to the internal meetings of the parties can be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 May 2022. The actual district candidates are eligible at the earliest 46 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 August 2022.^[12][13] The parties and other organised electoral groups which have not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Landtag or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals (CDU, CSU, SPD, Free Voters of Bavaria, Alliance 90/The Greens, FDP, Die Linke, AfD) have to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election.^[14] The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures have to be submitted by the 73rd day before the election.^[15]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their electoral district and one for a candidate in their constituency.^[16] Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method.^[17] There is no state-wide proportional representation; seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as constituencies (Wahlkreise) in the constitution.^[18] An open-list system is used for the constituency seats. Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes (sum of first and second votes) in Bavaria participate in the allocation of seats. The constituencies are divided into electoral districts (Stimmkreise),^[19] in each of which one MP is directly elected.^[20] The number of electoral districts is about half of the seats in the constituency.

Free Voters

In August 2023, the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on a pamphlet with antisemitic contents that Hubert Aiwanger may have authored and distributed at his high school some 35 years ago as a 17-year-old.^[21] Aiwanger admitted to carrying copies in his satchel but denied writing the document. His older brother, a student at the same school at the time, later took responsibility for writing the antisemitic pamphlet itself.^[22] The Süddeutsche Zeitung drew some criticism for publishing the story six weeks before the election, without conclusive evidence and without talking to Aiwanger before publication.^[23] Bavarian premier Markus Söder demanded that Aiwanger answer 25 questions on the matter, including whether Aiwainger had actively distributed the antisemitic pamphlet. Aiwanger claimed multiple times to "not remember."^[24] Aiwanger's responses were heavily criticised as short and evasive.^[25]

In his response to a question about other incidents, Aiwanger shortly mentioned that he remembers an unrelated incident in the arts class and noted a caution against breach of secrecy.^[26]

Despite the story, Aiwanger's party, Free Voters, saw an increase in support in the polls.^[27][28][29]

AfD

On 4 October 2023, Tino Chrupalla was at an election campaign appearance in Ingolstadt. Before his speech he collapsed and came to the intensive care unit of a local hospital. What exactly led to the hospitalisation is unclear.^[30]

Graphical summary

Party polling

Minister-President polling