2023_Manitoba_general_election

2023 Manitoba general election

2023 Manitoba general election

Provincial election

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

Quick Facts 57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority, Turnout ...

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure.[3][4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans.[5] Kinew led the NDP into the election.[6] The NDP campaign has focused on healthcare reform.[7][8] In addition, Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg.[9] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[9] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[10] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[11] They also promised new debt relief system if elected.[12] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[13]

Other campaign issues included crime,[14] agriculture[15] and affordable housing.[16] Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[17]

Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[18] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million.[19]

More information Candidates, Total ...

Timeline

2019

2020

2021

  • July 15: Eileen Clarke Resigns as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Relations but stays on as MLA for Agassiz.
  • July 15 Blaine Pedersen Resigns as Minister of Agriculture and Resource Development, he announces he will not seek Re-election.
  • August 10: Brian Pallister announces he will not seek Re-election as the MLA for Fort Whyte and will resign as premier.
  • September 1: Brian Pallister resigns as Premier and Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but remains as the MLA for Fort Whyte.
  • September 1: Kelvin Goertzen is Chosen by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba to Become its Interim Leader and the 23rd Premier of Manitoba. Rochelle Squires is Appointed as the Deputy Premier.
  • October 4: Brian Pallister Resigns as the MLA For Fort Whyte, Triggering a By-Election.
  • October 30: Heather Stefanson is elected as Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party
  • November 2: Kelvin Goertzen Resigns as Premier of Manitoba.
  • November 2: Heather Stefanson is Sworn in as the 24th Premier of Manitoba and is the first Woman to hold the Position.
  • December 9: Danielle Adams (Thompson) Dies in Office, triggering a By-election.
  • December 30: Ron Schuler Removed From Cabinet post as Minister of Infrastructure. Reg Helwer is appointed as Acting Minister of Infrastructure

2022

  • January 18: Premier Heather Stefanson shuffles her Cabinet
  • March 22: Obby Khan is elected in the Fort Whyte By-Election replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives held the seat Narrowly.
  • June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries and announces his intention to resign as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • June 6: Alan Lagimodiere is Named Acting Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister Responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries.
  • June 7: Eric Redhead is elected as the MLA for Thompson, holding the seat for the NDP.
  • June 17: Scott Fielding Resigns as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • October 4: Ralph Eichler Announces He Will not seek Re-election as MLA for Lakeside.
  • December 16: Ian Wishart Announces He will not seek re-election as MLA for Portage La Prarie.

2023

  • January 15: Cathy Cox announces she Will not seek Reelection as MLA for Kildonan River East.
  • January 27: Cameron Friesen his resignation as finance minister
  • June 13: Sarah Guillemard announces she will not seek reelection as MLA for Fort Richmond

Legislature summary

[20]

More information Party, Leader ...

    Incumbents not running for re-election

    More information Electoral district, Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee ...

    Candidates

    See also: List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election

    The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[34][35][36]

    Marginal seats

    Previous marginal seats

    Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

    More information Seat, 2019 held ...

    New marginal seats

    Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.

    More information Seat, 2019 held ...

    Results

    Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election.[37] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital.[38] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings.[39] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points.[40]

    Results overview

    More information Popular vote ...
    More information Seats ...

    Synopsis of results by riding

    More information Riding, Winning party ...
    1. [a 1]
      Sorted as per results summary.
    2. [a 2]
      Including rejected and declined ballots.
      = open seat
      = turnout is above provincial average
      = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
      = other incumbents renominated

    Results by riding

    More information Riding, Outgoing MLA ...

    Analysis

    More information Party in 1st place, Party in 2nd place ...
      More information Parties, 1st ...
      More information Source, Party ...


      Aftermath

      Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly.[42] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

      Seats changing hands

      Defeated MLAs

      More information Constituency, Party ...

      Open seats

      More information Constituency, Party ...

      Opinion polls

      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
      More information Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election, Polling firm ...

      See also

      Notes

        References

        1. [1]
          Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
        2. [2]
          CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
        3. [3]
          Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
        4. [4]
          Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
        5. [5]
          "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        6. [6]
          "Archived copy". Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
        7. [7]
          "NDP's Kinew promises to boost health care, balance the budget". October 16, 2022. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
        8. [8]
          "Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign". Winnipeg. September 14, 2023. Archived from the original on September 26, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        9. [9]
          "Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on September 25, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        10. [10]
          "Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        11. [11]
          "Manitoba Liberals urge voters to choose a different option this election – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        12. [12]
          "Manitoba Liberals promise new debt relief tools if elected". CBC News. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        13. [13]
          "Manitoba Chamber wants you to vote for prosperity". The Graphic Leader. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        14. [14]
          Gowriluk, Caitlyn (September 22, 2023). "Fact-checking Wab Kinew's promises on crime during Manitoba party leaders' debate". CBC News. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        15. [15]
          "Candidates encouraged to recognize the importance of Manitoba's pork industry". PortageOnline. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        16. [16]
          "New poll sheds light on Manitoba housing issues – REMI Network". REMINET. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        17. [17]
          Kives, Bartley (October 2, 2023). "Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        18. [18]
          "Winners of recent Manitoba elections have seen sizable majority governments – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        19. [19]
          Hobson, Brittany; Modified, The Canadian Press Posted: Last (September 29, 2023). "Manitoba reports $270M surplus days ahead of vote". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        20. [20]
          Official Results
        21. [21]
          "Political Parties". Elections Manitoba. Archived from the original on August 15, 2023. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
        22. [22]
          Clarke, Eileen (August 21, 2022). "I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election". Facebook. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
        23. [23]
          Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese, "Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics" Archived January 6, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 6, 2023.
        24. [24]
          "Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons". CBC Manitoba. The Canadian Press. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
        25. [25]
          Darren Bernhardt (January 5, 2023). "Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid". CBC Manitoba. Archived from the original on January 5, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
        26. [26]
          The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election" Archived October 4, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
        27. [27]
          Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature" Archived October 19, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
        28. [28]
          Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press (February 22, 2023). "Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on February 23, 2023. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
        29. [29]
          Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (July 15, 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 15, 2021 – via Twitter.
        30. [30]
          Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
        31. [31]
          Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 4, 2023.
        32. [32]
          Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, December 29, 2022.
        33. [33]
          Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 3, 2023.
        34. [34]
          "Candidates". Elections Manitoba. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
        35. [35]
          "Our Team". Manitoba NDP. Archived from the original on May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
        36. [36]
          Froese, Ian (April 11, 2023). "PCs, NDP place candidates in competitive Manitoba election races as polling gap narrows". CBC. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 30, 2023.
        37. [37]
          "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023". electionsmanitoba.ca. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        38. [38]
          "Manitoba Tory cabinet minister denounces right-wing pivot in election campaign". CKY-DT. The Canadian Press. October 4, 2023.
        39. [39]
          Sarah Petz (October 3, 2023). "Health Minister Audrey Gordon among Winnipeg PC cabinet ministers losing seats to NDP". CBC News.
        40. [40]
          "Statement of Official Results - Tuxedo" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. October 4, 2023.
        41. [41]
          "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023 (Unofficial Results)". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
        42. [42]
          "Dougald Lamont stepping down as Manitoba Liberal leader". Winnipeg. October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 4, 2023.

        Opinion poll sources

        1. [p 1]
          "NDP Majority Government Likely" (PDF). Forum Research. October 2, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        2. [p 2]
          "Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day". Research Co. October 2, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        3. [p 3]
          Martin, Robert (October 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, October 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        4. [p 4]
          "Voter Intention Survey for Manitoba & Winnipeg September 17–19,23". Sovereign North Strategies. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        5. [p 5]
          "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". Angus Reid. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        6. [p 6]
          "With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba". CTV News. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        7. [p 7]
          "Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues". Research Co. September 18, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
        8. [p 8]
          "Manitoba Public Opinion Report September 26, 2023" (PDF). Counsel Public Affairs. September 26, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
        9. [p 9]
          Fric, Curtis (September 7, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, August 2023 Public". Archived from the original on September 7, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
        10. [P 10]
          Fric, Curtis (August 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, July 2023 Public". Archived from the original on August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 3, 2023.
        11. [P 11]
          "NDP, PCs Head Into Pre-Election Period In a Dead Heat (June 2023 Provincial Voting Intentions)". Probe Research. June 21, 2023. Archived from the original on June 22, 2023. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
        12. [P 12]
          "Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election". Angus Reid Institute. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
        13. [P 13]
          "Manitoba Provincial Party Support" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 28, 2023. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
        14. [P 14]
          "Mainstreet Research Survey – Manitoba" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
        15. [P 15]
          "NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 12, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
        16. [P 16]
          "Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News". ctvnews.ca. September 25, 2022. Archived from the original on September 26, 2022. Retrieved September 27, 2022.
        17. [P 17]
          "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
        18. [P 18]
          "NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
        19. [P 19]
          "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
        20. [P 20]
          "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
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          "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
        22. [P 22]
          "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
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