Prime ministerial candidates

The process of selecting a prime minister is still the same as the preceding 2019 election under the 2017 Thai constitution. Prime ministers may only be chosen from a pre-declared list of candidates. Each party may submit up to three names and must have at least 25 members in the House of Representatives to receive eligibility. Candidates do not have to be a member of parliament (MP).

Parliament's vote for prime minister will take place in a joint session with the 250-seat Senate appointed by the junta, according to the constitution's provisional terms. In 2019, all the senators unanimously voted for then-junta leader Prayut.^[25] As the term of the NCPO-appointed Senate lasts until 2024, it is expected to exert influence into this election as well.^[26]

Due to this rule, the anti-junta camp had to secure at least 376 votes in order to select their candidates,^[12] while a simple majority in the House could still result in a candidate from the pro-junta coalition winning the selection. If no candidates secured at least 376 votes in the Parliament, it could lead to a deadlock^[27] and pave the way for a person not in the parties' list of candidates becoming prime minister as written in the Constitution. Such a scenario led some to call for strategic voting for larger anti-junta parties most likely to win in each constituency.

2022 reapportionment and redistricting

Due to the increase of the number of members of the House of Representatives elected from single-member constituencies from 350 to 400, a reapportionment of seats and redrawing of electoral boundaries was required. On 1 February 2022, the Election Commission announced its calculations that, from the total registered population of 66,171,439 as of 31 December 2021, there must be 1 member per 165,429 people. This distribution is subject to the approval of the organic law bills currently being considered by the National Assembly.^[28]

The provisional number of members of the House of Representatives to be elected from single-member constituencies in each province are as follows:

The Election Commission had just finished drawing electoral boundaries in February 2023—just three months before the election, while many candidates had already begun campaigning. The original drawing was challenged in the Constitutional Court as the Commission included non-citizens in the calculation. The Court struck down the drawing, prompting the Commission to revise and present another boundary drawing. The second drawing was also challenged in the administrative courts amid the accusation of gerrymandering by the Commission, but the court eventually ruled the drawing was legal in April 2023.^[29]

Preferred party

Preferred Prime Minister

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Exit polls

Results by province

Analysis

The Move Forward Party won the most seats with 151, including sweeping all but one of Bangkok's seats, outperforming another opposition party, Pheu Thai, which was considered the frontrunner.^[4] Analysts saw this as a significant political shift, and Move Forward supporters called the results a "wind of change" and the "dawn of a new era".^[50] This also broke Pheu Thai's run of being the party with the most MPs since 2001 (including its predecessors, the People's Power Party and Thai Rak Thai Party).^[51]

The two main parties connected to the former military junta, the Palang Pracharath Party and its split-off United Thai Nation Party^[52] lost half their seats compared to Palang Pracharath's result in 2019. The Democrat Party, a junior coalition partner, also lost over half its seats. Bhumjai Thai was the only coalition party which gained seats in this election.

Analysts were surprised at Move Forward's performance. It was attributed to a desire for change, dissatisfaction of the Prayuth premiership, and a reluctance to vote for the formerly dominant Pheu Thai. Move Forward's distinctive commitment to reforming the country's lèse-majesté law could also have been an issue that influenced voters.^[53] Napon Jatusripitak, a Thai political scientist at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, opined that this election indexed a readiness in the country to transcend past political divides and to instead focus on structural reforms "concerning the role of traditional power centers in Thailand".^[54]

Move Forward–led coalition

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat announced a six-party alliance with four former opposition parties—Pheu Thai, Thai Sang Thai, Prachachat and the Thai Liberal Party—and one new party, the Fair Party.^[55][56] The coalition would include 310 MPs,^[57] more than enough for a majority government in the House of Representatives.^[58] It later grew to eight parties (with Pheu Thai Ruam Palang and the New Social Power Party joining), accounting to 313 MPs.^[59] On 22 May, the eight parties signed a historic memorandum of understanding listing 23 policies they agreed on, including restoration of democracy, enacting marriage equality law, and reformation of the security and justice system. However, the issue of lèse-majesté was left out.^[60]

Pita needed 376 votes from the complete National Assembly to be voted prime minister.^[56] Due to the foreseeable gridlock that no senators would vote for a Pita premiership, some started to see Bhumjai Thai, which finished third in the election, a "kingmaker" and allying itself with Move Forward–led coalition, but during campaigning its leader Anutin had ruled out an alliance with parties that seek to reform the lèse-majesté law.^[61] Some senators said that they would not automatically vote for Pita, while stating that they had the country's best interests at heart;^[62] however, 15 senators were reportedly gearing to back his bid to be prime minister.^[57] Civil society also began pressuring senators to vote for Pita,^[63] and, on 23 May, organized a rally near the parliament.^[64]

Apart from the full parliament prime minister vote, there was much anxiety of a possible dissolution of the Move Forward party or court rulings against it — the same fate as its predecessor, the Future Forward party. Pita was also accused of owning shares in ITV, a de-listed television broadcaster since 2008, which could disqualify him from being an MP.^[54] After the election, there was a conflict between Move Forward and Pheu Thai over the House speaker seat.^[65][66] Some self-proclaimed Pheu Thai supporters also urged their party to leave the Move Forward–led coalition.^[67] Rumors that Pheu Thai could join the old coalition parties from before the election persisted.^[68] The Royal Thai Armed Forces pledged to respect the results of the general election and not launch a coup.^[69]

On 3 July, the new parliament was opened by King Rama X, and the coalition agreed to Wan Muhamad Noor Matha of the Prachachat Party to be nominated as speaker, paving the way for government formation. Wan previously served as Speaker from 1996 to 2000.^[70]

On 13 July, the government formation was blocked, as Pita's coalition failed to gain the requisite 375 votes in parliament. While 324 members of parliament voted in favor, 182 voted against and 199 abstained.^[71] Most of the junta-appointed senators refused to endorse Pita for Prime Minister, leading to protest and criticism.^[72][73]

On 19 July, the National Assembly convened for a second time to elect a new prime minister.^[76] That day, the Constitutional Court unanimously voted to accept a case against Pita regarding his inherited shares of the defunct iTV. They also voted 7–2 to suspend him from MP duty until it reached a ruling, though this did not preclude him from being nominated for prime minister.^[77][78][79] In the subsequent debate, the National Assembly voted against considering him for another round of voting for prime minister.^[80] His renomination was argued to have been against a parliamentary rule prohibiting a repeat motion.^{[81][82][83][80]} In the voting for his renomination, 312 voters supported, 394 rejected—most of which were senators—eight abstained and one did not vote.^[82] The decision to prohibit renominations was controversial, with critics arguing that it was unconstitutional. Many complaints were filed to the Office of the Ombudsman, which on 24 July agreed to forward the case to the Constitutional Court.^[84][85][86] This led to further prime ministerial voting being postponed by Parliament; the next vote had originally been scheduled for 27 July.

Pheu Thai–led coalition

After Move Forward's attempts were blocked, the opportunity to lead the government formation was passed on to Pheu Thai, who were expected to nominate Srettha Thavisin to be prime minister.^[87][88] As part of Pheu Thai's attempts to form a government, talks were held with many of the conservative and/or pro-junta parties, who insisted that they would not support any coalition including Move Forward due to its policy on amending the lèse-majesté laws.^[89] This, coupled with an announcement that exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would return to Thailand, fueled speculations of a deal with outgoing coalition parties that would see Pheu Thai abandoning the coalition with Move Forward.^[90][91]

On 2 August, Pheu Thai announced that it was leaving the eight-party coalition and would attempt to form a new coalition that excludes Move Forward, with Srettha as the candidate for prime minister. On 3 August, the Constitutional Court announced that its decision on Pita's renomination would be made on 16 August. In response, the PM vote, scheduled for 4 August, was again postponed to 22 August.^[92][93]

On 7 August, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai announced an alliance that would try to form a new coalition government.^[94] They were joined by six parties—Prachachart, Pheu Thai Ruam Palang, Chart Pattana Kla, Thai Liberal, New Social Power, and the Party of Thai Counties—on 9 August, followed by Chart Thai Pattana on 10 August, bringing their total to 238 MPs, which is less than the initial opposition coalition but which was seen as more favorable to the conservative military establishment in the Senate.^[95][96]

On 16 August, the Constitutional Court dismissed the petitions on Pita's renomination, stating that the plaintiff was not the directly affected party, clearing the way for a new round of prime ministerial voting.^[97] An eleven-party coalition was announced on 21 August, including the aforementioned parties along with the military-associated parties United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath for a total of 314 MPs.^[98] Pheu Thai's alliance with the military parties was controversial among many voters, including some of its own supporters, as its leaders had promised not to join with them before the election.^[99]

A poll published by NIDA the day prior showed that around 64% of those surveyed opposed Pheu Thai allying with military-backed parties.^[98] On 22 August at 9 am Bangkok time, Thaksin returned to Thailand and landed at Don Mueang International Airport, following 15 years of self-imposed exile, and was promptly sent to court and then prison to begin serving an eight-year sentence for his outstanding corruption convictions.^[100] Hours later, he was transferred to the Police General Hospital, which prompted accusations of special treatment.^[101] On 31 August, outgoing Justice Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam confirmed that Thaksin had requested a royal pardon,^[102] and on 1 September the Royal Gazette announced the King had commuted his sentence to one year.^[103]

On the evening of 22 August, the day of Thaksin's arrival, Srettha Thavisin was elected with 482 votes for, 165 votes against, with 81 abstentions.^[104] On 23 August, the King formally endorsed Srettha to become the 30th Prime Minister of Thailand.^[105] The endorsement document was posted on the Royal Gazette's website.^[106] At the event, Srettha also gave his first speech as prime minister.^[107] His cabinet was sworn in on 5 September.^[108]

The protracted government formation led to a further issue: Move Forward had now become the largest opposition party, but one of its MPs, Padipat Suntiphada, had already been elected deputy house speaker by the eight-party coalition. Constitutionally, the opposition leader could not be from the same party as a speaker or deputy speaker. As a result, Move Forward strategically expelled Padipat so that the leadership of the opposition could be taken by its new leader Chaithawat Tulathon.^[109] Government parties criticized the expulsion as an undignified political gambit that would in practice keep both positions in Move Forward's control,^[110] while Padipat insisted he would not act as Move Forward's nominee.^[111]