Background

The Senate seat has been held by Democrat Bob Menendez since 2006, who first took office by appointment and subsequently won his first three Senate races. In 2023, Menendez was indicted on federal corruption charges that he aided and provided sensitive information to the government of Egypt.^[4][5] Menendez was previously indicted on federal corruption charges in 2015 for bribery, fraud, and making false statements;^[6] the charges were dropped in 2018 after the jury was unable to reach a verdict and he was re-elected to a third term the same year.^[7][8]

Following Menendez's 2023 indictment, two prominent Democrats announced their Senate candidacy: Congressman Andy Kim and First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy.^[9][10] Menendez, although dismissing calls from several prominent Democrats to resign, has not indicated if he will seek a fourth term.^[11]

The primary between Murphy and Kim was seen as competitive as even though Kim led comfortably in polls, Murphy had received significant party support and the county line endorsements in many heavily populated counties along with endorsements from many county party chairs and from New Jersey Democratic Party chair LeRoy J. Jones Jr.. Kim, however, had received support from many national and progressive Democrats such as Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, the College Democrats of America, and the College Democrats of New Jersey. On March 24, 2024, Murphy announced her withdrawal from the race, citing poor polling.^[12]

Allegations of nepotism

Murphy's candidacy had given rise to allegations of cronyism and nepotism due to her being the wife of incumbent Governor Phil Murphy. Critics argued that since her husband is the head of the New Jersey Democratic Party, it would have ensured her victory.^[13] These accusations grew after she entered into the race as the chairs of the Hudson, Camden, Bergen, Somerset, Essex,^{[lower-alpha 1]} and Middlesex county Democratic organizations endorsed Murphy; these represent 40% of Democratic voters in New Jersey. Candidates in New Jersey who receive the endorsement of county chairs are often placed in a premier position of the primary election ballot, bracketed with other endorsed candidates, called the "party" or "county line." Candidates who are "on the line" typically win the June primary.^[14]

Murphy had responded to questions about her qualification for office due to not having been elected to office before and her previously being a registered Republican as being sexist, saying: "I’m not sure a male would be asked this question."^[15] At a candidate forum at the County College of Morris in January 2024, Murphy was asked to address the "elephant in the room" about her perceived advantage as the wife of Governor Phil Murphy. She replied that she was "honored and thrilled" to receive endorsements from New Jersey Democrats, who endorsed her "not because my husband asked them, but because I asked them. They know me."^[16] She promised to "earn every vote" and to listen to "not only the people who are with me, but both sides, and not just seeing through one lens". A number of members of Congress who had endorsed her have also said they endorsed her over Kim because she asked, and because of her work for women's health, children, and seniors.^[17]

Tammy Murphy

Andy Kim

Endorsement controversies

On December 24, 2023, Mountainside Democratic Municipal Chair and former NOW-NJ President Anjali Mehrotra announced that she would support Kim. However, she later retracted this statement, deciding to back Murphy's campaign and criticize Kim's candidacy.^[18]

On January 10, 2024, the College Democrats of New Jersey (CDNJ) in conjunction with the College Democrats of America (CDA) endorsed Kim.^[19] Four days later, it was revealed that, before the CDNJ announced their endorsement of Kim, they received a call from a college student who serves as the Youth Coordinator for the state party. In the call, the staffer asked the CDNJ to cancel the group's endorsement of Kim, expressing concerns over CDNJ members' future job prospects and funding.^[20]

The staffer would later say that while Murphy's campaign had not asked her to pressure the group on their behalf, but had wanted "to do something to prevent the endorsement." Murphy's campaign responded, saying the staffer's comments were "totally and completely inappropriate, and they in no way represent this campaign or what we stand for," and adding that the staffer had no connection to Murphy's campaign.^[21] The Murphy campaign also said that all of the students involved in this “unfortunate situation” should be afforded the “grace, allowance and forgiveness that we all deserve at that age.” Tammy Murphy, meanwhile, called the College Democrats of New Jersey's vice president to apologize.^[22] Kim responded on X (Twitter) saying in part, "This is why people lose faith in democracy and our system.^[23] On January 17, the CDA called on the national Democratic National Committee to open an investigation into what happened between the state party and Murphy's campaign, while reaffirming their support for Kim saying: "We will not be intimidated or silenced by those who seek to undermine our values and our vision for a more just and equitable world."^[24]

On February 5, 2024, the Murphy campaign unveiled a large list of endorsements from Monmouth County Democratic officials.^[25] However, later that day, multiple people whose names were on the list denied ever having endorsed her, with many still claiming that they were neutral in the race.^[26] Despite his neutrality the day before, Bradley Beach Democratic Municipal Chair Steve Lozowick changed course again on February 6, announcing his support for Murphy.^[27]

On March 16, 2024, Murphy was endorsed by the Camden County Democratic Committee, having already received the support of powerbroker George Norcross. However, at the committee meeting (which was largely just a formality due to the county's lack of an open convention), candidate Patricia Campos-Medina was denied entry, being physically barred by multiple guards.^[28] This incident led to a condemnation by Kim (who had also been denied access after requesting speaking time prior to the event), while Murphy stated that "You’ll have to talk to Camden" when asked about the incident.^[29] Murphy's response to the incident, along with other alleged concerns, led to Jersey City mayor Steven Fulop pulling his support for Murphy the following day and backing Kim, according to Fulop.^[30]

On March 17, 2024, the Hoboken Democrats voted to endorse Kim for Senate.^[31] Shortly after, chair Rachel Hodes resigned, stating that she has been receiving pressure since February by officials from both the Murphy and Menendez campaigns, as well as the Hudson County Democratic Organization, to change the Hoboken endorsement process as a way to prevent a Kim endorsement.^[32]

County lines

Although the practice was recently enjoined by a federal judge in Kim v. Hanlon, New Jersey is alone among the 50 states in authorizing local officials to award a strongly favorable ballot position to favored candidates in a prominent column on the ballot called the "county line."^[33] The county line on the ballot has come under heavy criticism during the Senate primary as an allegedly undemocratic result of political machine and political boss power in the state.^[34]

Due to this unique preferential-ballot-placement "county line" system in New Jersey, some NJ county parties hold conventions to decide which candidate gains the sought-after county-endorsed ballot position in the June primary, while other counties issue the line by private leadership fiat.^[35] The first in the state convention in Monmouth County is often considered a bellwether for other conventions throughout the state, and has been called the "Iowa caucus of the New Jersey Senate race." On February 10, 2024, Kim won the convention in what some described as an upset victory, where it was assumed Murphy would perform better, especially in her home county.^[36]

Uniquely among the states, New Jersey law authorizes a county chair of the county political party to make his or her own sole decision as an individual as to whom to award the line.^[37] Nevertheless, excluding Sussex and Salem, which do not award a line but do provide an endorsement, processes vary by custom in each county as detailed in this collapsible table on the primary lines as awarded during county award season:^{[38][39][40][41]}

A professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University opined to The Hill that a major distinction existed between the Murphy-as-victor county endorsements and the Kim-as-victor county endorsements. While Kim won almost all of the county endorsements chosen by a secret ballot at an open convention, Murphy did better in convention-free counties where a county chair decides individually who to back. Said the director: “I think their wins show this steep division where Kim has been winning all of the open conventions, and Tammy Murphy has been winning the conventions that have some sort of advisory panel or advisory vote or party boss at the helm."^[62]

On February 12, 2024, it was revealed that prior to her loss at the Monmouth County Democratic Convention, Murphy was repeatedly offered a shared line that she could jointly run on with Kim, but she rejected it, believing that she had enough votes to secure the line for herself.^[63] On February 15, it was reported that a similar deal was being proposed for Burlington County by state senator Troy Singleton, who was also attempting to avoid a convention fight between two candidates vying for Kim's House seat, state assemblymembers Herb Conaway and Carol Murphy.^[64] On February 18, after the first debate between Kim and Murphy, Kim said that he would not accept a shared line deal in Burlington unless Murphy was willing to share the line in every county. He also stated that the Murphys themselves were behind the push in Burlington for a shared line deal.^[65] A third deal was attempted on February 25, by Hunterdon County Democratic Chair Arlene Quiñones Perez (recently appointed to the New Jersey Racing Commission by Murphy's husband)^[66] where any candidate who received more than 30% of the Hunterdon County convention results would get the line, forcing Kim to share the line despite winning the vote, but this was defeated in a voice vote by the convention attendees.^[51]

In Bergen County where Murphy won the county line, Kim supporters alleged that the county chair, Paul Juliano, who was recently placed with the governor's support in a $280,000-a-year New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority job, and the county leadership suppressed efforts to allow Kim to speak to delegates and stacked the committee unilaterally with bonus voting delegates loyal to the chair.^[67][68]

In Somerset County, where the county chair, Peg Schaffer, a recently added board member at the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, has endorsed Murphy and where a whole-committee vote for the line was held on March 7, some committee members advocated for the usual show of hands or otherwise public vote to be replaced by a secret ballot at the line award in order to quell fears about retaliation.^[69] At the Somerset convention, the county chair denied a motion for secret ballot as "out of order" and the vote was held by a show of hands. A Star-Ledger columnist who attended the Somerset convention sharply criticized it as undemocratic and preferentially structured in Murphy's favor, pointing out that the county chair had sent out an advertisement in the name of the county party in support of Murphy in advance, had refused to allow confidential ballots, and had sent out a letter pointedly reminding delegates of the "rewarding" state and county jobs that delegates had allegedly received with Murphy's help.^[70]

In Cape May County, county chair Marie Blistan, the former president of the New Jersey Education Association, as well as the rest of the county Democratic officials, voted to not endorse in the race, thus creating an open primary within the county (the same choice was made for the concurrent primary for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district).^[71]

In Middlesex County, the county chair, Kevin McCabe, who is a lobbyist before the Murphy Administration on matters of wind power, was nominated by Murphy's husband to the powerful board of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and has the sole authority to award the line as he sees fit,^[72] denied a floor motion for a secret ballot at the gathering to award the line despite alleged chanting for same by delegates (according to the Kim campaign, as reporters were barred from the event).^[73][40]

In Cumberland County, the Democratic party was split into two rivaling factions, one ran by county chair Kevin McCann (backing Murphy), and the other ran by anti-McCann committeemembers (backing Kim). Neither group made a formal endorsement, leaving no candidate to receive the line.^[74]

After Murphy's withdrawal from the race, counties that awarded their lines to Murphy will have the option to award the line to Kim instead.^[12] Kim was able to receive the line in 17 of the 19 counties that award a line, with Cumberland not awarding one due to their split organization and Kim rejecting the Camden line due to their presence as the opposing council in his lawsuit against the line.^[75][76]

Candidates

Endorsements

County endorsements

  Kim

  Murphy

  No county line or endorsement

*signifies endorsement in a county that does not use the county line

County party chair endorsements

  Murphy

  No endorsement

Municipal party endorsements

  Campos-Medina

  Kim

  Murphy

Mayoral endorsements

  Kim

  Murphy

  No endorsement

State senate endorsements

  Kim

  Murphy

General assembly endorsements

  Kim

  Murphy

  No endorsement

  Split endorsement

Fundraising

Debates

A WNBC spokesman stated that Kim and Murphy will debate in person in May 2024 at 30 Rockefeller Plaza to be broadcast state-wide.^[198]

Kim and Murphy on Sunday, February 18, 2024 both participated in a live streamed event hosted by the New Jersey Globe, rather than an in-person debate.^[199][200] Both candidates were invited to a previous debate on February 4; Kim accepted, but Murphy declined. As a result, Kim appeared before a panel of journalists alone to discuss his candidacy.^[201]

Polling

Results

Candidates

Endorsements

Fundraising

Debates

Polling

Results

Candidates

Endorsements

Predictions

Polling

Results