Next_Canadian_federal_election

45th Canadian federal election

45th Canadian federal election

Next general election in Canada

The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, though a current government bill proposes to postpone the date to October 27, 2025 to avoid conflicting with Diwali.[1] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

Quick Facts 343 seats in the House of Commons 172 seats needed for a majority, Leader ...

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.[2][3][4]

This will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundaries for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14 and July 8, 2023,[5][6][7] and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8] The previous 338-seat electoral map would have been reused had the election been called before April 22, 2024.[9][8][10]

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding 2019 election.[11] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition.[12][lower-alpha 4] On September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader,[13] which came into effect on November 10.[14]

Date of the election

The date of the election is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[15] However, a government bill currently under consideration by the House of Commons would change the fixed election date to October 27, 2025 to avoid conflicting with the Hindu festival of Diwali.[1] Moving the election date to October 27, 2025 would also allow 74 members of parliament to qualify for a pension that they would not receive if they fail to achieve reelection, though the government denies this motivated the change.[16]

Political parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent.[17]

More information Name, Ideology ...

Electoral system

Redistribution

Main article: 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census.[18] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and was completed in September 2023.[19]

On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that based on the procedure in the Constitution Act, 1867 as then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[20] This included a reduction of Quebec’s allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution.[21][22] The Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause".[23][24] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15,[25] the Senate on June 21,[26] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022.[27] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.[28]

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021.[29] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec’s commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023,[5][6] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023.[7] The chief electoral officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a representation order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8]

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries took effect on April 22, 2024.[9][20][8] If the election had been called before then, it would have occurred under the previous electoral district boundaries, which had been in effect since the 2015 federal election.[30][31]

More information Province or territory, Representation orders ...

Notional 2021 results

The transposed results of the 2021 election, if they had taken place under the 2023 Representation Order.

This will be the first election contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged, but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada.[32]

More information Party, MPs ...

Incumbents not running for re-election

As of April 2024, a total of 21 MPs have announced they will not run in the 45th federal election.

More information Member of Parliament, Electoral district ...

Timeline

See also: 44th Canadian Parliament and By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament
More information Seat, Before ...
Changes in seats held (2021–)
  1. [a 1]
    to accept a position with the United Nations

2021

  • September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[58]
  • November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party.[14] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[59][60]
  • November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[61] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[61] The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.[62]
  • November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[63][64]
  • December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[65][66]

2022

2023

2024

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

See also

Notes

  1. Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  2. Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  3. MP for Beauce until being defeated in the 2019 election. Contested the by-election in Portage–Lisgar, lost.
  4. While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.

References

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