Opinion_polling_for_the_44th_Canadian_federal_election

Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election

Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election

Opinion polls for a Canadian federal election

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2019 Canadian federal election leading up to the 2021 Canadian federal election, which took place on September 20, 2021.[1] For riding-specific polls see the list of 2021 constituency polls.

National polls

Campaign period

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Pre-campaign period

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Regional polls

A number of polling firms survey federal voting intentions on a regional or provincial level:

Atlantic Canada

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

New Brunswick

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Newfoundland and Labrador

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Nova Scotia

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Prince Edward Island

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Central Canada

Quebec

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Ontario

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...
Greater Toronto Area
More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Western Canada

Manitoba

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Alberta

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

British Columbia

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

Constituency polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on which political party leader would make the best prime minister:

September 2020 – September 2021

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

October 2019 – August 2020

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...

See also

Notes

  1. Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
  2. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  3. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  4. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
  5. Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
  6. Percent voting intentions given in the report have been adjusted to reflect only decided/leaning voters for consistency among poll results in the table.
  7. Party columns are ordered from largest to smallest share of the popular vote in the 2019 election, not according to the number of seats won.

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