Opinion_polling_on_Welsh_independence

Opinion polling on Welsh independence

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Opinion polling on Welsh independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from January 2007 to the present day. Polling was initially sporadic, but it has been carried out almost every month since January 2021. The question typically asked by pollsters is "Should Wales be an independent country?".^[1]^[2]

Public opinion

Summary

A graphical summary of yes/no independence polls, excluding non-standard questions.

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Yes/No Independence polls

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation & client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation & client	Sample size	Should Wales be an independent country?			Lead	Notes
Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation & client	Sample size	Yes	No	Undecided	Lead	Notes
23–24 March 2024	Redfield and Wilton Strategies	878	30%	58%	11%	28%
18 February 2024	Redfield and Wilton Strategies	874	27%	61%	12%	34%
24-26 January 2024	Redfield and Wilton Strategies	1,100	30%	59%	11%	29%
10-11 December 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,086	34%	58%	9%	24%
4-7 December 2023	YouGov/Barn Cymru	1,004	22%	56%	14%	34%
12-13 November 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,100	33%	56%	12%	23%
14-15 October 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	959	31%	59%	9%	28%
1–6 September 2023	YouGov		22%	56%	13%	34%
13–14 August 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,068	33%	53%	14%	20%
14–16 July 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,050	32%	58%	10%	26%
17–18 June 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,000	30%	57%	13%	27%
12–17 May 2023	YouGov/Barn Cymru	1,064	20%	54%	15%	34%
14–15 May 2023	Redfield and Wilton Strategies	1,058	32%	58%	11%	26%
15–17 April 2023	Redfield and Wilton Strategies	1,251	29%	60%	11%	31%
17–23 Feb 2023	YouGov / WalesOnline	1,083	18%	55%	16%	37%
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov / Barn Cymru	1,042	22%	55%	14%	33%
21–25 November 2022	YouGov / YesCymru	1,033	23%	54%	13%	31%
20–22 September 2022	YouGov / Barn Cymru	1,014	24%	52%	14%	28%	Age 16+
16–19 August 2022	YouGov / The Sunday Times	1,025	30%	48%	13%	18%	Non-standard question: If Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the UK
16–19 August 2022	YouGov / The Sunday Times	1,025	25%	53%	12%	28%
12–16 June 2022	YouGov / ITV Wales	1,020	25%	50%	25%	25%
25 Feb – 1 March 2022	YouGov/ Barn Cymru	1,086	21%	53%	26%	32%	Age 16+
5 May 2021	Savanta ComRes	1,002	30%	55%	15%	25%	Taken with 29 April – 4 May 2021 poll, online
2–4 May 2021	YouGov / Welsh Barometer	1,071	21%	55%	14%	34%
29 April – 4 May 2021	Savanta ComRes	1,002	27%	58%	14%	31%	Online
23–28 April 2021	Savanta ComRes	1,002	42%	49%	8%	7%	46% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever level of support.^[3]
18–21 April 2021	YouGov	1,142	22%	54%	24%	32%	Age 16+
9–19 April 2021	Opinium / Sky News	2,005	28%	52%	19%	24%
16–19 March 2021	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,174	22%	55%	23%	33%	Age 16+
18–22 February 2021	Savanta ComRes / ITV News	1,003	35%	55%	10%	20%	39% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever support at the time.^[4]^[5] Age 16+.
19–22 February 2021	WalesOnline / YouGov	1,059	25%	50%	14%	25%	Age 16+
18–21 January 2021	The Sunday Times / YouGov	1,059	23%	52%	25%	29%	Age 16+
11–14 January 2021	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,018	22%	53%	25%	31%	Age 16+
26–29 October 2020	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,013	23%	53%	25%	30%	Age 16+
24–27 August 2020	YesCymru / YouGov	1,044	25%	52%	23%	27%
29 July – 7 August 2020	YesCymru / YouGov	1,044	26%	55%	19%	29%	Age 16+
29 May – 1 June 2020	ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni	1,021	25%	54%	21%	29%
20–26 January 2020	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,037	21%	57%	22%	36%	Age 16+
6–9 December 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,020	17%	60%	23%	43%
22–25 November 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,116	20%	57%	22%	37%
31 October – 4 November 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,032	22%	57%	21%	35%
10–14 October 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,032	21%	57%	23%	36%
6–10 September 2019	Plaid Cymru / YouGov	1,039	24%	52%	23%	28%
6–10 September 2019	Plaid Cymru / YouGov	1,039	33%	48%	20%	15%	Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union
7–14 December 2018	Sky News Data: Wales	1,014	17%	67%	16%	50%
30 May – 6 June 2018	YouGov	2,016	19%	65%	16%	46%
July 2016	ITV Wales / YouGov	1,010	15%	65%	20%	50%
July 2016	ITV Wales / YouGov	1,010	28%	53%	20%	25%	Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union
July 2016	ITV Wales / YouGov	1,010	19%	61%	21%	42%	Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK
8–11 September 2014	ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff University	>1,000	17%	70%	13%	53%	The week before the Scottish independence referendum
April 2014	YouGov	1,000	12%	74%	14%	62%
March 2013	ITV Wales / YouGov	Unknown	10%	62%	28%	52%	Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK
5–8 January 2007	BBC / Opinion Research Business	527	19%	69%	13%	50%	Would you like the Union to continue as it is or would you like to see it come to an end? If it were to end this would mean that Scotland (in Wales say “Wales”) became an independent country?

"0–10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling organisation & client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation & client	Sample size	Total favourable	In favour					Indifferent	Against					Total unfavourable
Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation & client	Sample size	Total favourable	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	Total unfavourable
10–15 May 2019	YesCymru / YouGov	1,133	36%	14%	4%	5%	6%	7%	17%	5%	6%	6%	2%	28%	47%
9–12 May 2017	YesCymru / YouGov	1,000	29%	10%	2%	6%	6%	5%	18%	4%	6%	7%	5%	31%	53%

By age (February 2023)

More information Age group, No ...

Age group^[6]	No	Yes	Do not know	Lead
18–24	41%	20%	16%	21%
25–49	44%	18%	23%	26%
50–64	59%	22%	12%	37%
65+	72%	12%	11%	60%

Devolution extent polls

More information Date(s) Conducted, Polling organisation ...

Date(s) Conducted	Polling organisation	Support independence (%)	Support more powers for the Senedd (%)	Support status quo (%)	Support fewer powers for the Senedd (%)	Support abolition of the Senedd (%)	Indifferent/Did not reply/Other (%)
5-25 June 2023^[7]	Beaufort Research / WalesOnline	16	23	25	6	17	13
12-17 May 2023^[8]	YouGov / Barn Cymru	13	21	20	7	20	16
3-7 February 2023^[9]	YouGov / Barn Cymru	15	20	21	7	20	16
25 November - 1 December 2022^[10]	YouGov / Barn Cymru	14	21	23	7	20	14
20-22 September 2022^[10]	YouGov	17	19	21	7	19	15
28 January – 21 February 2021^[11]	BBC / ICM Unlimited	14	35	27	3	15	6
29 May – 1 June 2020^[12]	ITV Wales & Cardiff University / YouGov	16	20	24	5	22	14
4–22 February 2020^[13]	BBC / ICM	11	43	25	2	14	3
7–23 February 2019^[14]	BBC / ICM	7	46	27	3	13	4
December 2018^[15]	SkyData	8	40	23	4	18	7
February 2017^[16]	BBC / ICM	6	44	29	3	13	4
February 2016^[17]	BBC / ICM	6	43	30	3	13	4
February 2015^[18]	BBC / ICM	6	40	33	4	13	4
September 2014^[19]	BBC / ICM	3	49	26	2	12	6
February 2014^[20]	BBC / ICM	5	37	28	3	23	5
2013^[21]	BBC / ICM	9	36	28	2	20	4
2012^[21]	BBC / ICM	7	36	29	2	22	4
2011^[21]	BBC / ICM	11	35	18	17	15	4
2010^[21]	BBC / ICM	11	40	13	18	13	4

Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales

More information Date(s) conducted, Polling Organisation & client ...

Date(s) conducted	Polling Organisation & client	Sample size	Independence (inc. sub-samples)					No devolved government (inc. sub-samples)					Indifferent / no reply (%)
Date(s) conducted	Polling Organisation & client	Sample size	Total (%)	Conservative (%)	Labour (%)	Lib Dem (%)	Plaid Cymru (%)	Total (%)	Conservative (%)	Labour (%)	Lib Dem (%)	Plaid Cymru (%)	Indifferent / no reply (%)
29 May – 1 June 2020	ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni	1,021	33%	12%	45%	39%	87%	45%	79%	35%	53%	4%	21%

References

[1]
"Welsh Independence Poll - Support Steadily Dropping?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
[2]
"Welsh independence polls 2023". Statista. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
[3]
"Savanta ComRes Wales Voting Intention –29 April 2021" (PDF).
[4]
Axenderrie, Gareth (4 March 2021). "Polls chart rise of support for Welsh independence". The National Wales. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
[5]
da Silva, Chantal (2021-03-04). "Highest ever support for Welsh independence, new poll shows". The Independent. Retrieved 2021-03-19.
[6]
Hayward, Will (2023-03-01). "Support for Welsh independence at its lowest level for three years". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-03-04.
[7]
Hayward, Will (2023-07-10). "Poll shows 40% of Welsh people want either independence or more powers for Wales". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-07-11.
[8]
"YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
[9]
"YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
[10]
"YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
[11]
"Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales". BBC News. 28 February 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
[12]
Awan-Scully, Roger (5 June 2020). "Attitudes to Devolution and Welsh Independence". Cardiff University. Retrieved 5 June 2020.
[13]
"St Davids Day Poll 2020". 1 March 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
[14]
"Attitudes to Brexit and economy polled". BBC News. 1 March 2019.
[15]
Awan-Scully, Roger (20 December 2018). "Does Wales Want to Abolish the Assembly?". Cardiff University.
[16]
"EU migrants should have skills, public tells BBC Wales poll". BBC News. 2017-03-01.
[17]
"St David's Day Poll" (PDF). blogs.cardiff.ac.uk. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
[18]
"ICM Poll for the BBC" (PDF). www.icmunlimited.com. 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
[19]
"'Record low' back Welsh independence - BBC/ICM poll". Wales Online. 2014-09-15. Retrieved 2014-09-19.
[20]
"BBC Cymru Wales poll: Few in Wales back Scottish independence". BBC News. 28 February 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
[21]
"Historical Polls". icmunlimited. Retrieved 2022-06-24.

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