2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

For related races, see 2020 United States presidential election.
Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.[lower-alpha 1]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen.[5][6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in 2016.[7] Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won the Sunshine State by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012.[8] Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos.[9][10] In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. This was the first election in which Florida backed the losing candidate since 1992, when the losing candidate, George H.W. Bush, was also an incumbent Republican. Despite the rightward shift, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.

Primary election

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

More information Candidate, Votes ...
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard.[13][14][15]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[16]

More information Candidate, Votes ...
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Biden—80–90%

General election

Final predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

State polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...
More information Hypothetical polling, Poll source ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

More information County, Donald Trump Republican ...

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican.[34]

More information District, Trump ...

Analysis

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004.[35]

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.[36][37] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884.[38]

Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida was one of six states where Trump received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2016.[lower-alpha 82] Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes.[39] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[40]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical Venezuelan vote swinging Republican.[41] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior.[42] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.[43] Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.[44] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.[45]

Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics. Trump significantly increased his share of the vote in majority-Hispanic Osceola County, winning 42.53% of the vote, the highest since 2004.[42]

Edison exit polls

More information Demographic subgroup, Biden ...

See also

Notes

  1. The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
  2. Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  6. "Someone else" with 1%
  7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  9. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  10. Standard VI response
  11. West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  12. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  13. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  14. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  15. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  16. "Someone else" with 3%
  17. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  18. Includes "Refused"
  19. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  20. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  21. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  22. "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  23. "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
  24. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  25. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  26. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  27. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  28. "Someone else" with 2%
  29. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  30. Not yet released
  31. "Refused" with 3%
  32. "Other third party" with 2%
  33. "Third party" with 2%
  34. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  35. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  37. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
  38. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  39. "Third party" with 1%
  40. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  41. "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
  42. "Someone else" with 4%
  43. Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
  44. Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
  45. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  46. No voters
  47. "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
  48. With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
  49. "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
  50. "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
  51. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  52. "No one" with 1%
  53. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  54. "Other" with 1%
  55. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  56. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  57. "Someone else" with 0%
  58. Would not vote with 2%
  59. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  60. "Other/not sure" with 4%
  61. "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  62. "Refused" with 1%
  63. "Other" and "Neither" 1%
  64. "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  65. "Third-party candidate" with 2%
  66. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  67. "Other party candidate" with 5%
  68. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  69. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  70. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  71. "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  72. "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
  73. "Third party" with 2.7%
  74. "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
  75. "Green nominee" with 0.4%
  76. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  77. Would not vote with 6%
  78. Would not vote with 7%
  79. Would not vote with 8%
  80. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
  81. "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
  82. The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah, as well as Washington DC.
Partisan clients
  1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  5. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  7. Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  8. Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
  9. Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

References

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    November 3, 2020 General Election, Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
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