2020_Iowa_caucuses

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

Election in Iowa

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Trump won the state 53.1% to Biden's 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state,[3] Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.2% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016.

This marked the first time since 2000 that the state voted for the national loser, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of the popular and electoral vote. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha urban area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back-to-back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Florida. This is also the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin.

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[4]

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[5]

More information Candidate, Votes ...
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses § results.[edit]
county
Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—100%
  •   Trump—≥95%
  •   Trump—90–95%
  •   Trump—85–90%
congressional district
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—≥95%

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[8]

More information Candidate, Initial alignment ...
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses § IAresults.[edit]

Libertarian caucuses

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
Quick Facts Candidate, Home state ...
More information Candidate, Votes ...

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[16][17]

General election

Final predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...
More information Hypothetical polling, Poll source ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Results by county

More information County, Donald Trump Republican ...

Results by congressional district

Trump won all 4 of the state's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

More information District, Trump ...

Analysis

Per exit polling by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from White Iowans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump also dominated amongst Christian voters, garnering 66% of Protestants, 54% of Catholics, and 76% of born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.[33] Trump continued to win the cultural message among voters without college degrees in Iowa.[34]

During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state.[35] However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates—from Senator Joni Ernst to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by Dave Loebsack in Iowa's 2nd district)—winning their election.

Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Biden came within 2% of flipping Dallas County, a suburb of Des Moines. Jefferson County was also very close, having gone for Trump by a similarly tight margin four years earlier.

Biden became the first Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, the first since 1916 to win without carrying Wapello County, as well as the first since FDR in 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County and Howard County.

Edison exit polls

More information Demographic subgroup, Biden ...

See also

Notes

  1. Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
  2. The official results included four decimal digits.
  3. In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
  4. Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  5. Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  6. Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  7. 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  8. Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[14]
  9. Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[10]
  10. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  14. "Don't recall" with 2%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%
  16. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  17. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  18. "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  19. Includes "Do not remember"
  20. "Someone else" with 1%
  21. "Someone else" with 4%
  22. Standard VI response
  23. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  24. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  25. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  26. Includes "Refused"
  27. No voters
  28. "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
  29. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  30. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  31. "Other third party" with 2%
  32. "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
  33. If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  34. "Other candidate" with 2%
  35. "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  36. "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
  37. Would not vote with 1%
  38. "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
  39. "Other" with <1%
  40. "Other" with 0%
  41. "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
  42. "Someone else" with 7%
  43. Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  44. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  45. Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  46. Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  47. Other and would not vote with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  6. Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
  7. End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

  1. [1]
    Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. [2]
    "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. [3]
    Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Joe Biden, Mike Pence to campaign in Iowa this week, underscoring competitive presidential race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  4. [4]
    Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  5. [5]
    "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  6. [6]
    "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
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    "2020 Iowa Republican caucuses results". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
  8. [8]
    "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
  9. [9]
    Lee, Jasmine C.; Lieberman, Rebecca; Aufrichtig, Aliza; Bloch, Matthew (February 4, 2020). "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
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    "Iowa democratic Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
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    Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
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    "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
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    "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. June 13, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  14. [14]
    Gonyea, Don (February 14, 2020). "Mike Bloomberg Storms Super Tuesday States, Pledging To 'Get It Done'". NPR. Retrieved December 12, 2021.
  15. [15]
    Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
  16. [16]
    "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  17. [17]
    McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
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    "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
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    "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
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    "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
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    2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
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    David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
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    "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
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    "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
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    Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  30. [30]
    "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  31. [31]
    "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  32. [32]
    "Election Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  33. [33]
    "Iowa Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  34. [34]
    "Down on the farm with Trump". Bleeding Heartland. April 16, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  35. [35]
    Alberta, Tim (February 3, 2020). "Whoever Wins Iowa, They Won't Be Back". POLITICO. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
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