2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Kentucky

2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky

2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky

Election in Kentucky


The 2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Kentucky has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Trump won Kentucky by a 25.9% margin in this election, down from his 29.8% margin in 2016. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. Kentucky has not supported a Democratic nominee since it narrowly supported fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996. Trump's overhaul of Obama-era coal emissions standards helped him win coal-industry households,[3] once again sweeping the historically-Democratic Eastern Kentucky counties. Trump also carried 83% of White evangelical/born-again Christians, per exit polls by the Associated Press.[4]

In addition to Trump's victory in the Commonwealth, Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Elliott County since the county was founded in 1869,[5] as well as only the second Democrat to ever lose Elliott County in a presidential election, preceded only by Hillary Clinton four years earlier. This also marks the second consecutive election in which no county in the Eastern Kentucky Coalfield voted Democratic. Furthermore, this is the first time since 1948 that Fayette County, the second-most populous county in the state and home to the city of Lexington, voted to the left of Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state and home to the city of Louisville, in a presidential election.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for May 19, 2020. On March 16, they were moved to June 23 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[6]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary. The state has 46 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary

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General election

Predictions

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Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

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Polls

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More information Former candidates, Poll source ...

Results

Statewide results

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By county

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By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[25]

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Analysis

Edison exit polls

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See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. Standard VI response
  5. Hawkins (G) with 1%
  6. If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  7. "Someone else" with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  9. "Someone else" with 2%
  10. Not yet released
  11. "Someone else" with 5%
  12. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  13. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
Partisan clients
  1. This poll's sponsor supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  2. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  3. Poll sponsored by Amy McGrath's campaign
  4. U.S. Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  5. This poll's sponsor supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period

References

  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Kentucky Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  3. "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  4. "Kentucky Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  5. "Official 2020 PRIMARY ELECTION Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved October 13, 2020.
  6. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  7. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  8. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  11. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  12. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  13. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  14. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  15. Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  16. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  17. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  18. "November 3, 2020 Official 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). p. 6. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  19. "Kentucky 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  20. "Kentucky Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

Further reading


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