2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

Election in Michigan

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush had scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis.[4] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.[5] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.

Biden ultimately carried Michigan by 2.78%, a far closer margin than expected. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of Black American voters.[6] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but it was not enough to win. Michigan marked Biden's strongest performance in a state that Trump carried in 2016, even voting to the left of Nevada which Trump failed to carry in said election.

Biden flipped the counties of Leelanau, Kent, and Saginaw and became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without winning Bay or Gogebic Counties, the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to win without Monroe County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to win without Lake County and the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Calhoun, Isabella, Manistee, Shiawassee, or Van Buren Counties.

With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.

Michigan's overall vote in for this election was 1.6% more Republican than the nation-at-large.

Primary elections

The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[7]

More information Candidate, Votes ...

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[9]

This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)
Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%

More information Candidate, Votes ...

General election

Final predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

2020 polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

2017–2019 polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...
More information Hypothetical polling, Poll source ...

General election results

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

More information County, Joe Biden Democratic ...

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan, including one that elected a Democrat.

More information District, Trump ...

Analysis

Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasts a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's unexpected collapse in the northern industrial states.[28][29]

Biden would carry the state by about 2.8%; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.2% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.[30]

While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a fairly sizable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.[30] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.[31]

Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit.[31] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County,[32] and flipped back Saginaw County.[33]

Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.[34] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan.[35][36]

Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.[37] African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state.[38] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties.[39]

The 2020 election in Oakland County by municipality (certain villages like Holly not shown).
The 2020 election in Wayne County by municipality.

In Oakland County, Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority-voted for Biden versus Trump included Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, Madison Heights, Novi, Rochester Hills, Southfield and Troy.[40]

The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.[41] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining.[42]

Edison exit polls

More information Demographic subgroup, Biden ...

Aftermath

On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[45] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why, when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[46]

On election night in Antrim County, human error miscounted an unofficial tally of Presidential votes. Next day, the County Clerk pulled the unofficial tally offline. The error was caused by using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, which mismatched results.[47] The Republican Clerk admitted that she made a mistake in some precincts, which mismatched precinct results.[48] The very next day, she corrected her mistake, tabulated all ballots again and ran a final report to certify Trump's overwhelming win.[47] Nonetheless, this error and a related lawsuit fueled multiple election conspiracies.[49]

Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history and was not authorized under Michigan law, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.[50]

Official audits

In October 2020, the Michigan Election Security Advisory Commission published recommendations for two types of postelection audits: procedural and tabulation audits.[51] The first statewide risk-limiting audit included a hand tally of the sampled ballots, which confirmed that Biden received more votes than Trump and the share of votes each candidate received was within a fraction of a percentage point of the certified results.[52] Another tabulation audit confirmed the election results by examining ballots cast, voting machines and the election procedures. The series of post-election audits was the most comprehensive in the state's history.[53]

In Antrim County, the Clerk's Office was joined by a bipartisan team of clerks to perform a hand recount of every single ballot. Their recount proved that the county's election results had been accurately certified.[48] The Republican Chairman concluded in a letter prefacing his state Senate Oversight Committee's election report: "all compelling theories that sprang forth from the rumors surrounding Antrim County are diminished so significantly as for it to be a complete waste of time to consider them further."[54]

After eight months investigating the state's 2020 general election process, he and his Republican Committee members all voted for the Senate to adopt their report. Their report concluded, "The Committee found no evidence of widespread or systemic fraud in Michigan's prosecution of the 2020 election."[54]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  6. The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  7. The Committee to Protect Medicare is a PAC with a history of buying ads arguing against the reelection of Trump
  8. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  9. Unite the Country PAC has endorsed Biden's presidential campaign
  10. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose head - Gabby Giffords - had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  12. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  13. Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
  14. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  15. CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  16. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
  2. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
  3. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
  4. Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. "Someone else" with 2%
  9. Standard VI response
  10. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  11. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  12. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  13. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  14. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  16. "Someone else" with 3%
  17. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
  18. "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  19. "Someone else" with no voters
  20. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  21. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  22. "Third party" with 5%
  23. Includes "Refused"
  24. "Someone else" with 1%
  25. "Other/third party" with 2%
  26. "Someone else" with 0%
  27. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  28. "Third party" with 2%
  29. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  30. Includes Undecided
  31. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  32. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. "Third party candidate" with 5%
  34. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  35. "Third party candidate" with 4%
  36. "Someone else" with 4%
  37. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  38. "Other third party" with 2%
  39. "Another candidate" with 0%
  40. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  41. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  42. "Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
  43. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  44. "Someone else" with 1.2%
  45. "Another candidate" with 1%
  46. If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  47. "Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  48. Would not vote with 1%
  49. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  50. "Other/not sure" with 7%
  51. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  52. "Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
  53. Would not vote with 0%
  54. "Another party candidate" with 1%
  55. "Another third party/write-in" 1%
  56. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  57. "Third party" with 6%
  58. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  59. "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
  60. "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
  61. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  62. "Would vote third party" with 5%
  63. "Refused" with 2%
  64. "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
  65. "other" with 2%
  66. "Refused/no answer" with 4%
  67. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  68. "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  69. "A different candidate" with 6%
  70. "Third party" with 4%
  71. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  72. "Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  73. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  74. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  75. A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  76. Would not vote with 5%
  77. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  78. Would not vote with 7%
  79. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  80. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
  81. Would not vote with 6%
  82. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  83. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  84. Would not vote with 4%
  85. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
  86. A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  87. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  88. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
  89. Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
  90. Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
  91. 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
  92. "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
  93. "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
  94. "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
  95. "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
  96. "Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%

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