2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Jersey

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Election in New Jersey

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.49% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.[4][5]

Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election.[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.[12][13] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[14] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[15] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county will be available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[16]

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[17] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[18]

More information Candidate, Votes ...

Democratic primary

More information Candidate, Votes ...
This section is an excerpt from 2020 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary § NJresults.[edit]

Green primary

This section is transcluded from Results of the 2020 Green Party presidential primaries. (edit | history)
More information Candidate, Votes ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Polls
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...

Results

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Biden
-Red municipalities won by Trump
Swing from 2016 to 2020 by each municipality, darker colors indicate a higher swing from 2016:
-Blue municipalities swung towards Biden
-Red municipalities swung towards Trump
More information Party, Candidate ...

Results by county

More information County, Joe Biden Democratic ...
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won 3, including one that elected a Democrat.[38]

More information District, Biden ...

[39]

Analysis

As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.

Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which has not voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.[40]

Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[40] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[41] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.

See also

Notes

  1. This primary was conducted under a system in which each person could cast a vote for more than one candidate, therefore percentages reflect the percentage of voters that approved of each candidate, and as a result do not add up to 100%.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. "Neither" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  7. "Another candidate or unsure" with 10%
  8. "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. "Someone else" with 2%
  11. "Another candidate or unsure" with 15%
  12. "For another candidate" with 7%
  13. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  14. "Neither" with 4%; "someone else" with 1%

References

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    "QuickFacts New Jersey". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved May 21, 2021.
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    David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
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    "Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path". NPR. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
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    "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
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    "Official General Election Results: U.S. President" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
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    "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 10, 2021.
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    "Covered Areas for Voting Rights Bilingual Election Materials—2015", Voting Rights Act Amendments of 2006, Determinations Under Section 203, Federal Register, retrieved October 13, 2020, A Notice by the Census Bureau on 12/05/2016

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