2022_Ontario_general_election

2022 Ontario general election

2022 Ontario general election

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The 2022 Ontario general election was held on June 2, 2022, to elect Members of the Provincial Parliament to serve in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario.

Quick Facts 124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 63 seats needed for a majority, Turnout ...

The governing Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Doug Ford, were re-elected to a second majority government, winning 7 more seats than they had won in 2018. The NDP retained their status as the Official Opposition, despite losing seats and finishing third in the popular vote, while the Ontario Liberals finished 2nd in the popular vote, but only won 8 seats, a gain of one seat from 2018 but falling short of official party status. The Green Party retained the single seat they won in 2018 while the New Blue and Ontario Party failed to win a seat, both losing their lone sitting MPPs.

The election set a record for the lowest voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election, as only 43.53% of the people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record for low turnout of 48.2% in the 2011 election.[2]

Background

As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on or before the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[3]

In the June 2018 Ontario general election, the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) led by Doug Ford won a strong majority government. The New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Andrea Horwath became the Official Opposition; this was the first time since 1990 they surpassed their third-place status. The governing Liberal Party led by Premier Kathleen Wynne was decimated, winning only 7 out of the 124 seats in the legislature and being reduced to third-place status. The Green Party won its first seat in history, with leader Mike Schreiner becoming its first Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP).

Wynne resigned as leader immediately after and MPP John Fraser succeeded her as interim leader; he held that post until March 2020, when Wynne's former minister of transportation, Steven Del Duca, became permanent leader of the Liberal Party. Meanwhile, Horwath and Schreiner both remained leader of their parties and had no intention of resigning.

By December 2019, polling showed that the Ford government was as unpopular as the previous Wynne government as a result of not cutting spending enough as promised.[editorializing][4] However, the Progressive Conservatives experienced a surge of support during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic; a Mainstreet Research poll in June 2020 showed the PCs at 42 percent, the Liberals at 28 percent, and the NDP at 23 percent.[5]

On October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[6][7] Before this vote, the Legislative Assembly of Ontario could have been dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario on a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggered a snap election (the former was extremely unlikely to work against the incumbent government with a majority).

In April 2021, the province experienced a major third wave of COVID-19 infections, and, after quickly reversing government health policies, such as opening and then abruptly closing restaurants, the government was criticized over their handling of COVID-19. This led to the PCs' support dipping, but remaining ahead of the Liberals and NDP.[8]

In late April 2022 – days before the election call – the Ford government released its budget, promising to implement it if the government was reelected. The budget recorded a deficit of $19.9 billion and promised substantial spending on infrastructure (including for their proposed Highway 413) and tax breaks for some workers and seniors.[9]

On May 3, 2022, Premier Doug Ford met with the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario to advise dissolution of the legislature and for writs of election be drawn up.[10]

Timeline

More information Party, Gain/(loss) due to ...
More information Seat, Before ...
  1. from cabinet and caucus due to allegations of sexual misconduct
  2. from caucus after opposing the government's cuts to francophone services
  3. later removed after alleged autism comment, and alleged lack of commitment to the caucus
  4. accepted position at Massey College of the University of Toronto
  5. from caucus after voting against Bill 195
  6. co-created (alongside her husband) the New Blue Party, and officially joined soon after
  7. from caucus due to refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19
  8. from caucus following party accusations that she had misrepresented her COVID-19 vaccine status.
  9. from caucus during vetting process for re-election for having joined an Islamophobic Facebook group
  10. from caucus after losing nomination contest to be re-elected

2018

2020

2021

2022

  • May 3: Writs of the election were drawn up, dissolving the Legislature and officially starting the campaign.[38]
  • May 10: First leaders' debate, organized by Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities.[39]
  • May 16: Second leaders' debate, organized by Broadcast Consortium.[40]
  • June 2: Election day.

Campaign period

Candidates not standing for reelection

26 MPPs chose not to campaign in the election:

  1. Previously elected under the NDP banner
  2. Previously elected under the PC banner

Party slogans

More information Party, English ...

Debates

More information Date, Time (EDT) ...

Issues

Summary

The 2022 Ontario Budget, entitled Ontario's Plan to Build, served as the platform of the governing PC Party. The main five themes it emphasized were: growing the clean energy economy with minerals from the Ring of Fire, building infrastructure including Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass and expanding GO service, supporting workers by funding more skilled trades programs, raising the minimum hourly wage to $15 and allowing universities to issue three-year degrees, lowering taxes by eliminating license plate stickers, eliminating tolls and reducing housing development fees and lastly to avoid future COVID-19 lockdowns by hiring more healthcare workers..[69]

The Official Opposition NDP's campaign focused on increased funding for social programs and government services, which would be paid for through higher taxes on businesses and individuals earning over $200,000 per year. Funding would go toward reducing class sizes, raising welfare payments and disability payments, subsidies for black, indigenous and LGBTQ+ entrepreneurs, hiring more healthcare and education staff and increased wages for public servants. The NDP also proposed to expand COVID-19 vaccine mandates, implement a mixed member proportional electoral system, to close down all privately owned long-term care facilities and to stop the construction of new highway projects.

More information Issue ...

Endorsements

More information Type, PC ...

Opinion polls

Campaign polls

More information Opinion polls during campaign period, Polling firm ...

Pre-campaign polls

More information Opinion polling before campaign period began, Polling firm ...

Notes

Results

The disproportionality of elections to the Legislative Assembly in the 2022 election was 22.59 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly due to the disparity between the vote share and seat share of the Liberals and PCs.

Despite only posting a marginal increase in the popular vote, the Progressive Conservative Party won with an increased parliamentary majority.[170]

PC gains came primarily at the expense of the New Democratic Party, who lost significant vote share primarily to the Liberal Party. Nevertheless, the NDP maintained their role as official opposition by a large margin. Although she won her seat, Andrea Horwath resigned as leader of the NDP.[171]

Despite edging out the NDP for second place in the popular vote, the Liberals only gained one seat and failed to regain official party status. After failing to win in his own riding, Liberal leader Steven Del Duca also announced his resignation as party leader.[172]

The only two candidates outside the three largest parties to be elected were Green Party leader Mike Schreiner and independent candidate Bobbi Ann Brady, who prior to the election was the executive assistant to the retiring PC MPP in her riding.

As of 19:30 GMT on 3 June, the full unofficial results are as follows:[173][174]

83 31 8 1 1
Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal G I
More information Party, Votes ...
More information Popular vote ...
More information Seat summary ...
  1. Bobbi Ann Brady was elected for Haldimand—Norfolk with 15,921 votes, or 0.34% of the vote.

Synopsis of results

More information Riding, Winning party ...
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected under the same party banner
  = incumbent switched allegiance after 2018 election
  = other incumbents renominated
  1. Summarized from "Data Explorer". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  2. including spoilt ballots
  3. Provincewide turnout was 44.06%
  4. minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Post-election pendulum

The robustness of the margins of victory for each party can be summarized in electoral pendulums. These are not necessarily a measure of the volatility of the respective riding results. The following tables show the margins over the various 2nd-place contenders, for which one-half of the value represents the swing needed to overturn the result. Actual seat turnovers in the 2022 election are noted for reference.

  = seats that turned over in the election
Post-election pendulum - 2022 Ontario general election[a 1][a 2][a 3]
PC (83 seats)
Margins 5% or less
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte  Lib 0.75
Eglinton—Lawrence  Lib 1.33
Etobicoke—Lakeshore  Lib 1.76
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell  Lib 2.55
York South—Weston  NDP 2.62
Thunder Bay—Atikokan  NDP 3.38
Mississauga East—Cooksville  Lib 3.57
Milton  Lib 4.32
Mississauga—Erin Mills  Lib 4.66
Ajax  Lib 4.71
Parry Sound—Muskoka  Grn 4.74
Nepean  Lib 4.80
Margins 5%–10%
Scarborough Centre  Lib 5.63
Willowdale  Lib 6.70
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek  NDP 7.26
Mississauga Centre  Lib 7.28
Oakville  Lib 7.75
Peterborough—Kawartha  Lib 8.03
Mississauga—Lakeshore  Lib 8.33
Sault Ste. Marie  NDP 9.59
Margins 10%–20%
Mississauga—Streetsville  Lib 10.10
Don Valley North  Lib 10.58
Kitchener—Conestoga  NDP 11.16
Markham—Thornhill  Lib 11.32
Scarborough—Agincourt  Lib 11.76
Oakville North—Burlington  Lib 11.87
Markham—Stouffville  Lib 12.95
Burlington  Lib 13.13
Brampton East  NDP 13.27
Kitchener South—Hespeler  NDP 13.48
Newmarket—Aurora  Lib 13.49
York Centre  Lib 14.09
Mississauga—Malton  Lib 14.44
Etobicoke Centre  Lib 14.54
Brampton Centre  NDP 14.70
Cambridge  NDP 14.83
Pickering—Uxbridge  Lib 15.87
Brantford—Brant  NDP 15.88
Windsor—Tecumseh  NDP 15.93
Brampton North  Lib 16.22
Chatham-Kent—Leamington  NDP 17.25
Brampton South  Lib 17.56
Scarborough—Rouge Park  Lib 17.57
Scarborough North  Lib 18.70
Vaughan—Woodbridge  Lib 18.70
Kanata—Carleton  NDP 19.37
Margins > 20%
Richmond Hill  Lib 20.34
Durham  Lib 20.96
Carleton  Lib 21.26
Brampton West  Lib 21.60
Nipissing  NDP 21.94
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill  Lib 22.55
Essex  NDP 22.82
Flamborough—Glanbrook  NDP 23.46
Thornhill  Lib 23.60
Niagara West  NDP 24.22
Perth—Wellington  NDP 24.76
Whitby  NDP 25.54
Northumberland—Peterborough South  Lib 25.99
Markham—Unionville  Lib 26.00
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound  Lib 28.23
Bay of Quinte  NDP 28.38
Hastings—Lennox and Addington  NDP 28.54
Oxford  NDP 28.57
King—Vaughan  Lib 28.81
Simcoe—Grey  Lib 29.08
Sarnia—Lambton  NDP 29.11
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston  NDP 29.41
Dufferin—Caledon  Lib 30.86
Barrie—Innisfil  NDP 31.11
Simcoe North  NDP 32.06
Etobicoke North  Lib 32.07
Elgin—Middlesex—London  NDP 32.87
Huron—Bruce  Lib 33.26
Wellington—Halton Hills  NDP 35.00
Timmins  NDP 35.22
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock  NDP 36.59
York—Simcoe  Lib 39.51
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes  Lib 39.56
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry  Lib 39.62
Kenora—Rainy River  NDP 39.65
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex  NDP 39.97
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke  NDP 44.02
NDP (31 seats)
Margins 5% or less
Oshawa  PC 1.83
Niagara Centre  PC 2.07
Toronto—St. Paul's  Lib 2.59
Ottawa West—Nepean  PC 2.60
Thunder Bay—Superior North  PC 3.25
Humber River—Black Creek  Lib 3.83
Margins 5%–10%
St. Catharines  PC 5.28
Windsor West  PC 6.88
Toronto Centre  Lib 7.06
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas  PC 7.43
Timiskaming—Cochrane  PC 7.51
London North Centre  PC 9.36
Margins 10%–20%
University—Rosedale  Lib 10.19
Algoma—Manitoulin  PC 10.45
London West  PC 11.27
Mushkegowuk—James Bay  PC 11.43
Niagara Falls  PC 11.65
Sudbury  PC 11.88
Kitchener Centre  PC 13.91
London—Fanshawe  PC 14.30
Hamilton Mountain  PC 14.81
Waterloo  PC 16.56
Spadina—Fort York  Lib 18.11
Margins > 20%
Scarborough Southwest  PC 20.08
Nickel Belt  PC 20.91
Kiiwetinoong  PC 27.63
Parkdale—High Park  Lib 31.59
Ottawa Centre  Lib 31.76
Toronto—Danforth  Lib 33.03
Davenport  Lib 37.85
Hamilton Centre  PC 40.79
Liberal (8 seats)
Beaches—East York  NDP 2.21
Don Valley West  PC 5.36
Kingston and the Islands  NDP 6.51
Don Valley East  PC 11.66
Orléans  PC 13.61
Scarborough—Guildwood  PC 14.79
Ottawa—Vanier  NDP 15.85
Ottawa South  NDP 21.39
Green (1 seat)
Guelph  PC 34.05
Independent (1 seat)
Haldimand—Norfolk  PC 4.56

Results summary by region

More information Region, Seats ...

Detailed results

[175]

More information Political party, Party leader ...

Summary analysis

More information Party in 1st place, Party in 2nd place ...
More information Parties, Seats ...
More information Parties, 1st ...

Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests

More information Riding, 1st ...
More information Riding, 1st ...

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

More information Riding, Party ...

Seats changing hands

Of the 124 seats, 26 were open because of MPPs who chose not to stand for reelection, and voters in only 14 seats changed allegiance from the previous election in 2018.


More information Party, Gain from (loss to) ...

There were 14 seats that changed allegiance in the election:

Of the 14 seats that changed hands, seven were open seats where the MPPs chose to retire, and seven others saw their incumbents defeated.

More information Riding, Party ...
  1. sat as an Independent at dissolution
  1. chose to stand as an Independent in the election

Three PC MPPs had changed allegiance during the course of the past Legislature, but failed to secure reelection under their new banners. The seats reverted to the PCs.

More information Constituency, Party (2018) ...
More information Source, Party ...

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