2024_Catalan_regional_election

2024 Catalan regional election

2024 Catalan regional election

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The 2024 Catalan regional election will be held on Sunday, 12 May 2024, to elect the 14th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Quick Facts All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia 68 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...

The coalition government formed by Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) had broke up in October 2022, with president Pere Aragonès having to rely in the support of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) and In Common We Can (ECP) for stability. After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget in Parliament on 13 March 2024, as a result of differences with ECP over the Hard Rock mega resort, Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[2] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure comes regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.[lower-alpha 2] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[3] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[4]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[2][5]

More information Seats, Constituencies ...

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[6]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 14 February 2021, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 February 2025. The election was required to be called no later than 30 January 2025, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on 31 March 2025.[2]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[2]

After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget on 13 March 2024, president Pere Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.[7] The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 19 March 2024 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).[8]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[9][10][11]

More information Groups, Parties ...

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[14]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

More information Candidacy, Parties and alliances ...

Ahead of the election, it was revealed that the People's Party (PP) and Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) were negotiating an electoral alliance that could be extended to the European Parliament election in June as well,[30] but talks broke down on 22 March—causing the resignation of Adrián Vázquez as secretary-general of CS—after the regional branch of CS in Catalonia rejected its dissolution.[31] The PP was also concerned on whether to keep Alejandro Fernández as the party's candidate or to replace him by another figure, such as former Health minister Dolors Montserrat.[32] On 26 March, the PP confirmed Fernández as the party's candidate and Montserrat as campaign manager.[28]

On 21 March, Together for Catalonia (Junts) leader Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium to avoid charges brought by Spanish authorities following the unrecognized referendum on Catalan independence from Spain in 2017, held a rally in Elne, France, near the Spanish border, saying that he would stand for office in the Parliament of Catalonia and seek to become regional president, which he had previously held prior to his exile.[33] On 26 March, Puigdemont announced the "Vernet Accord", an electoral alliance between Junts and several minor pro-independence parties: his former allies of Action for the Republic (AxR), The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV), Independence Rally (RI.cat), Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement of Catalonia (MESCat), and new ones such as Catalan State (EC) and Republican Youth of Lleida (JRL).[34] The next day, it was revealed that Puigdemont would run under the "Together+Puigdemont for Catalonia" platform.[35] Later, EV–AV announced that their party had not signed nor negotiated the alliance and were not a part of Junts since 2020.[21]

On 25 March, Catalan Alliance, a far-right party that led the local governments in the municipalities of Ripoll and Ribera d'Ondara, announced that they would be contesting the election with their leader, Sílvia Orriols, as their main candidate.[29]

On 27 March, Podemos announced that they would not contest the election.[36] The party had contested previous elections within the En Comú Podem alliance, alongside Catalonia in Common (CatComú). In a statement, the party stated that they did not wish to contribute to the fragmentation of the left-wing vote, as it had intended to contest the election on its own if an agreement could not be reached with their previous election partners, while blaming Catalunya en Comú for making an agreement "impossible".[37] The relationship of Podemos with other Spanish left-wing parties had been deteriorating since it broke with the Sumar coalition and joined the Mixed Group in the Spanish Congress of Deputies.[38] Following Podemos' withdrawal, CatComú and Sumar announced a joint list for the election under the name Comuns Sumar, with Jéssica Albiach as their main candidate.[39]

Timetable

The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):[14][40]

  • 18 March: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the President.[8]
  • 19 March: Formal dissolution of the Parliament of Catalonia and beginning of a suspension period of events for the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
  • 22 March: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions.
  • 29 March: Deadline for parties and federations intending to enter into a coalition to inform the relevant electoral commission.
  • 8 April: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates to the relevant electoral commission.
  • 10 April: Submitted lists of candidates are provisionally published in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).
  • 13 April: Deadline for citizens entered in the Register of Absent Electors Residing Abroad (CERA) and for citizens temporarily absent from Spain to apply for voting.
  • 14 April: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to rectify irregularities in their lists.
  • 15 April: Official proclamation of valid submitted lists of candidates.
  • 16 April: Proclaimed lists are published in the DOGC.
  • 26 April: Official start of electoral campaigning.[8]
  • 2 May: Deadline to apply for postal voting.
  • 7 May: Official start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication, dissemination or reproduction and deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail.
  • 8 May: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voters to issue their votes.
  • 10 May: Last day of official electoral campaigning and deadline for CERA citizens to vote in a ballot box in the relevant consular office or division.[8]
  • 11 May: Official 24-hour ban on political campaigning prior to the general election (reflection day).
  • 12 May: Polling day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote). Provisional counting of votes starts immediately.
  • 15 May: General counting of votes, including the counting of CERA votes.
  • 18 May: Deadline for the general counting of votes to be carried out by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 27 May: Deadline for elected members to be proclaimed by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 6 July: Final deadline for definitive results to be published in the DOGC.

Campaign

Party slogans

More information Party or alliance, Original slogan ...

Election debates

More information Date, Organisers ...

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 14 February 2021 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

More information Province, Time ...

Results

Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...
More information Popular vote ...
More information Seats ...

Distribution by constituency

More information Constituency, PSC ...

Notes

  1. Results for ECP–PEC in the 2021 election.
  2. Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
  3. Cristina Casol, former JxCat legislator,[12] and Antonio Gallego, former Vox legislator.[13]
  4. The party launched a multi-message slogan, with a number of interchangeable expressions:
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita lideratge (English: "Catalonia needs leadership")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita bon Govern (English: "Catalonia needs good Government")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita fer-se respectar (English: "Catalonia needs to make itself respected")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita viure en català (English: "Catalonia needs to live in Catalan")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita la independència (English: "Catalonia needs the independence")
  5. Spanish detener has double meaning. In reference to Pedro Sánchez and Carles Puigdemont, "stopping" the former and "arresting" the latter.
  6. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  7. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  8. Alternative projection based on raw CIS data.
  9. Within ECP.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. [p 1]
    "Encuesta de GAD3 para Mediaset sobre las elecciones catalanas: el PSC ganaría con ventaja sobre los independentistas". Cuatro (in Spanish). 28 April 2024.
  2. [p 2]
    "Enquesta de VilaWeb: Sánchez enlairaria Illa i l'independentisme perdria la majoria". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 29 April 2024.
  3. [p 3]
    "El PSC lidera los sondeos y podría formar gobierno con ERC y Comuns ante un imposible pacto independentista". Público (in Spanish). 27 April 2024.
  4. [p 4]
    "Enquesta de VilaWeb: El PSC suma dos escons i millora l'avantatge, tot esperant la decisió de Sánchez". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 28 April 2024.
  5. [p 5]
    "Elecciones en Cataluña: Illa gana hasta dos escaños en plena reflexión de Sánchez". La Razón (in Spanish). 29 April 2024.
  6. [p 6]
    "S'escurça la distància entre Illa i Puigdemont, però ERC decidirà, segons l'enquesta de VilaWeb". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 27 April 2024.
  7. [p 7]
    "El PP se queda sin su gran objetivo: obtener representación en todas las provincias". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 29 April 2024.
  8. [p 8]
    "Encuesta El Nacional: La campaña del 12-M arranca con Illa en cabeza y Puigdemont distanciado de Aragonès". El Nacional (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  9. [p 9]
    "Illa ganaría las elecciones pero Puigdemont tendría todas las papeletas para lograr la Generalitat". El Debate (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  10. [P 10]
    "Enquesta de l'ARA: Avantatge del PSC pel 12-M amb una majoria independentista difícilment operativa". Ara (in Catalan). 27 April 2024.
  11. [P 11]
    "La sociedad catalana prioriza la economía al independentismo. Informe Opinión Pública y elecciones en Cataluña 2024" (PDF). Llorente y Cuenca (in Spanish). 26 April 2024.
  12. [P 12]
    "Enquesta electoral al Parlament de Catalunya 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 26 April 2024.
  13. [P 13]
    "Preelectoral de Cataluña. Elecciones autonómicas 2024 (Estudio nº 3453. Abril 2024)". CIS (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  14. [P 14]
    "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3453. Preelectoral de Cataluña. Elecciones autonómicas 2024)". CIS (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  15. [P 15]
    "Salvador Illa mantiene su ventaja, el 'efecto Puigdemont' se diluye y los separatistas no suman". El Español (in Spanish). 21 April 2024.
  16. [P 16]
    "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El PSC se afianza en cabeza y Junts toma la delantera en su pulso con ERC". El Periódico (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  17. [P 17]
    "El PSC parte con clara ventaja en Cataluña con Junts al alza y la caída de ERC". El País (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  18. [P 18]
    "Informe preelectoral para las elecciones catalanas. Abril 2024" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  19. [P 19]
    "Illa ganaría con holgura en Catalunya mientras el independentismo perdería la mayoría absoluta". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  20. [P 20]
    "Un sondeo de los Comuns apunta que el PSC ganaría con 40 escaños, Junts tendría 30 y ERC 28". Europa Press (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  21. [P 21]
    "El PP crece en Barcelona y supera a Vox como segunda fuerza constitucionalista en Cataluña". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 13 April 2024.
  22. [P 22]
    "Illa ganaría el 12M pero quedará en manos del separatismo para gobernar en plena amnistía". OKDiario (in Spanish). 1 April 2024.
  23. [P 23]
    "Las elecciones catalanas darían forma a un Parlament ingobernable". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
  24. [P 24]
    "El 'efecto Puigdemont' no frena a Illa y el independentismo se queda muy lejos de poder gobernar Cataluña". El Mundo (in Spanish). 23 March 2024.
  25. [P 25]
    "El PSC ganaría las elecciones catalanas a Junts y ERC, que libran una apretada pugna". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 24 March 2024.
  26. [P 26]
    "Illa lograría hoy 42 escaños: tendría mayoría con ERC o Junts sin necesitar a los Comunes". El Español (in Spanish). 18 March 2024.
  27. [P 27]
    "Encuesta elecciones catalanas: El PSC ganaría pero Puigdemont superaría a ERC". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 March 2024.
  28. [P 28]
    "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El PSC sale en cabeza y se mantiene la pugna entre ERC y Junts". El Periódico (in Spanish). 18 March 2024.
  29. [P 29]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 21 March 2024.
  30. [P 30]
    "ElectoPanel Cataluña: así estaban las cosas el 28 de febrero". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2024.
  31. [P 31]
    "Junts supera a ERC y recupera el liderazgo entre los votantes independentistas". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 25 February 2024.
  32. [P 32]
    "El PP da el 'sorpasso' a Vox en Cataluña tras los acuerdos de Sánchez con los nacionalistas". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 15 January 2024.
  33. [P 33]
    "La amnistía favorece a ERC, hunde a Junts y deja al PSC como ganador en Cataluña". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 6 December 2023.
  34. [P 34]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  35. [P 35]
    "Illa ganaría hoy las elecciones catalanas y Junts sería la segunda fuerza política". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 16 October 2023.
  36. [P 36]
    "Carles Puigdemont ya rentabiliza la negociación con Pedro Sánchez y superaría a ERC en unas generales". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 September 2023.
  37. [P 37]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 July 2023.
  38. [P 38]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 April 2023.
  39. [P 39]
    "ERC ganaría las elecciones catalanas: el independentismo vuelve a sumar". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 13 December 2022.
  40. [P 40]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 9 November 2022.
  41. [P 41]
    "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El PSC afianza su ventaja y ERC se impone a Junts tras la ruptura del Govern". El Periódico (in Spanish). 16 October 2022.
  42. [P 42]
    "EP Cataluña (15oct): continúa la lucha PSC-ERC. Subida de Valents". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2022.
  43. [P 43]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 July 2022.
  44. [P 44]
    "CatPanel (31My): Valents irrumpe en el Parlament. ERC en cabeza, con el PSC detrás". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 May 2022.
  45. [P 45]
    "El PSC se impondría en las elecciones catalanas y el independentismo recularía". El Nacional (in Spanish). 23 May 2022.
  46. [P 46]
    "¿Quién ganaría las elecciones en Catalunya en plena polémica por el espionaje de Pegasus?". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 May 2022.
  47. [P 47]
    "CATALUÑA. Encuesta Ipsos 14/05/2022: CUP 7,8% (10), JxCAT 15,7% (25), ERC 20,8% (33), PDeCAT 1,5%, ECP-PEC 7,6% (9), PSC 25,2% (36), Cs 3,5% (3), PP 5,8% (7), VOX 9,3% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 May 2022.
  48. [P 48]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 7 April 2022.
  49. [P 49]
    "Empate PSC-ERC, Junts baja y Vox cuarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2021.
  50. [P 50]
    "ERC adelanta al PSC, que también ampliaría su ventaja sobre Junts". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
  51. [P 51]
    "CatPanel (15JL): bajada de Vox, que es sorpassado por la CUP. Subida del PSC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2021.
  52. [P 52]
    "Enquesta sobre context polític a Catalunya. 2021" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 May 2021.
  53. [P 53]
    "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: Una repetición electoral reforzaría a PSC y a ERC, y haría caer a Junts". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.
  54. [P 54]
    "El PSC ampliaría su ventaja y ERC superaría a Junts si se votara otra vez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
  55. [P 55]
    "Elecciones en Cataluña: Castigo a JxCat por el "no" a ERC y trasvase de votos de Cs al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  56. [P 56]
    "CATALUÑA. Encuesta NC Report 03/04/2021: CUP-G 6,9% (9), JxCAT 19,2% (31), ERC 22,4% (34), ECP-PEC 6,7% (8), PSC 23,5% (34), Cs 3,1% (2), PP 5,4% (5), VOX 8,1% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  57. [P 57]
    "Enquesta electoral al Parlament de Catalunya 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 26 April 2024.
  58. [P 58]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 21 March 2024.
  59. [P 59]
    "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2023" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 12 January 2024.
  60. [P 60]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  61. [P 61]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 July 2023.
  62. [P 62]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 April 2023.
  63. [P 63]
    "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2022" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 13 January 2023.
  64. [P 64]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 9 November 2022.
  65. [P 65]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 July 2022.
  66. [P 66]
    "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 7 April 2022.
  67. [P 67]
    "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2021". ICPS (in Catalan). 3 December 2021.
  68. [P 68]
    "Sondeo de GAD3 para 'La Vanguardia'. Ficha técnica". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
  69. [P 69]
    "Método de estimación de voto y escaños". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
  70. [P 70]
    "Sondeo elecciones Catalunya: Los catalanes prefieren a Illa como president y puntúan mejor a Aragonès que a Puigdemont". El Periódico (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  71. [P 71]
    "Sondeo elecciones Catalunya: Los catalanes dan ganador a Illa, puntúan mejor a Aragonès y prefieren como president a Puigdemont". El Periódico (in Spanish). 19 March 2024.
  72. [P 72]
    "Sondeo Catalunya: Illa es el preferido como 'president' y Aragonès aventaja a Puigdemont". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.
Other
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