A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Dunkley was held on 2 March 2024, following the death of sitting member Peta Murphy in December 2023.^[1][2][3] Jodie Belyea of the Labor Party retained the seat for the party, winning 52.7% of the two-party preferred vote.^[4]

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2024 Dunkley by-election

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Division of Dunkley (Victoria) in the House of Representatives
Opinion polls
First party Second party   Candidate Jodie Belyea Nathan Conroy Party Labor Liberal Popular vote 37,418 35,746 Percentage 41.1% 39.2% Swing 0.8 6.7 TPP 52.7% 47.3% TPP swing 3.6 3.6
MP before election Peta Murphy Labor Elected MP Jodie Belyea Labor

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It was the third federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament, as well as being the first federal by-election in a Labor seat since 2020 and the first federal by-election triggered by a member's death since 2015.

The by-election was triggered by the death of sitting Labor member Peta Murphy, who died at 50 years old due to breast cancer. Murphy was first diagnosed with breast cancer when she was 37.

Murphy was elected as the member of Dunkley in 2019, after she unseated one-term incumbent Liberal MP Chris Crewther. At the 2022 federal election, Murphy was re-elected with an increased majority, turning it into a fairly safe seat.

The seat of Dunkley has been held by both Labor and the Liberals and has traditionally been a marginal seat. The seat has never been a safe or very safe seat and has only been a fairly safe seat (defined by the Australian Electoral Commission as a seat held by between 6 and 10 percent), twice: in 2004 (won by the Liberals with a margin of 9.38%) and in 2022 (won by Labor with a margin of 6.27%).

Since its creation in 1984, Dunkley has flipped between both major parties. From 1984 until 1990, when the Liberals gained the seat. The seat went back to Labor in 1993 before the Liberals regained it 1996 and held it until 2016.

While by-elections usually swing against the government, there are exceptions. At the 2023 by-election in the seat of Aston in eastern Melbourne, Labor won the seat from the Liberals, making it the first time the Government has won a seat from the Opposition at a federal by-election since 1920. However, at the 2023 by-election in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast, the Liberal National Party retained the seat with an increased majority.

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:^[6]

• 29 January 2024 – Issue of writ
• 5 February 2024 – Close of rolls
• 8 February 2024 – Close of nominations
• 9 February 2024 – Declaration of nominations
• 19 February 2024 – Commencement of early voting
• 28 February 2024 – Applications for postal voting closes
• 2 March 2024 – Polling day
• 8 May 2024 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.^[7]

The by-election saw conservative activist group Advance unsuccessfully spend nearly $300,000 to unseat Labor, with its advertising described as 'Trumpian' and a 'fear campaign' by Labor MP Paul Edbrooke.^{[26][27][28][29]}

• List of Australian federal by-elections